September 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[Jesse]

Watch your mouth, young man. July was beautiful.

True. I should have said late summer.

[TT-SEA]

It's a stretch to say anything 14 days out is "likely". The 18z ensembles don't look ridgy in the long range.

 

I don't really care about the 18Z GFS ensembles in the long range.

 

I said it probably starts building around day 7.   

[Jesse]

I don't really care about the 18Z GFS ensembles in the long range.

 

I said it probably starts building around day 7.

Based on what?

[TT-SEA]

Based on what?

 

ECMWF and EPS.   

 

Trough is moving out and ridge starts to build in around day 7 or 8.

 

 

[James Jones]

I think ridge starts building back in around day 7.   

 

And I would not be bothered by trough posts... particularly if it was likely going to happen.    There was not much possibility of that this summer.  

 

This doesn't really look like a building ridge.

 

 

 

 

And FWIW, there's pretty much zero support for the ridgy solution on the 18z ensembles.

[Geos]

It was epic. I made a video one evening that winter driving from green grass in North Bend to over 2 feet of snow here with massive snowbanks in a span of 3 miles.

 

Do you have that posted anywhere?

[wx_statman]

I think our streak just broke. Doesn't look like we had a 5:00 bump like yesterday.

[Jesse]

ECMWF and EPS.

 

Trough is moving out and ridge starts to build in around day 7 or 8.

 

 

Is that why the EPS still has us under a trough at day 10?

 

You are being silly about this whole thing. If the tables were tuned you'd be admonishing Jim for wishcasting.

[Jesse]

I think our streak just broke. Doesn't look like we had a 5:00 bump like yesterday.

Good. Finally.

 

This one kind of slipped under the radar.

[Deweydog]

Considering how awful this summer has been I don't think I've been that bad. I think you are basing your opinion more off of old memories than how I actually am now. Human nature, I realize.

Awful summer? Most of June and good chunk of August were pretty darn pleasant. Couple that with what was about as idyllic a July as anyone could ask for and I find it hard to call it awful with a straight face.

 

#caseinpoint

[Jesse]

Awful summer? Most of June and good chunk of August were pretty darn pleasant. Couple that with what was about as idyllic a July as anyone could ask for and I find it hard to call it awful with a straight face.

 

#caseinpoint

I should have said late summer. But besides that you know that what I said is true.

[TT-SEA]

Do you have that posted anywhere?

 

Not that I can find.   I posted it here but that was a decade ago.  

[Jesse]

I don't know about everyone else but the smoke is really thick again here. Strong smell of burning wood too.

 

Interesting pattern today. The first "cool" offshore flow event of the season.

[TT-SEA]

Is that why the EPS still has us under a trough at day 10?

 

You are being silly about this whole thing. If the tables were tuned you'd be admonishing Jim for wishcasting.

 

EPS at day 5...

 

 

 

EPS at day 10...

 

 

 

I would say there is a ridge starting to build back in during that period.  

[wx_statman]

Good. Finally.

This one kind of slipped under the radar.

Well, technically we have to wait until the NWS puts out the daily summary. But I'm already planning a funeral procession down Airport Way tomorrow. Our streak will be missed.

[Jesse]

EPS at day 5...

 

 

 

EPS at day 10...

 

 

 

I would say there is a ridge starting to build back in during that period.

Gradually rising heights. But still NW flow and lower than average 500mb heights. To be expected in the wake of an unseasonablly deep trough. It's like you might say mocking Jim "What a ridge!! I thought heights were going to stay in the 540s in mid-September forever. That's what usually happens, right? "

[Deweydog]

I should have said late summer. But besides that you know that what I said is true.

It was a pretty warm late summer/very early fall. Smoky too.

 

#ineedtobemoredramatic

[Jesse]

Well, technically we have to wait until the NWS puts out the daily summary. But I'm already planning a funeral procession down Airport Way tomorrow. Our streak will be missed.

It was a nasty streak which for all practical purposes should have ended a month ago.

 

8/14 was all lined up to break it, then we had a small late day spike to 75.

[wx_statman]

It was a nasty streak which for all practical purposes should have ended a month ago.

8/14 was all lined up to break it, then we had a small late day spike to 75.

That's actually a good thing to read at the eulogy tomorrow. Thanks!

[TT-SEA]

Gradually rising heights. But still NW flow and lower than average 500mb heights. It's like you might say mocking Jim "What a ridge!! I thought heights were going to stay in the 540s in mid-September forever. That's what usually happens. "

 

You are trying to find examples from the past and use it to stir up crap now.   Just like you accused Matt of doing to you an hour ago.

 

You asked what I based on my statement on that ridging would start to build back in around day 7 or 8.   I answered you.   I did not say searing record heat and a death ridge.   Never said that.     

 

This started around 8 a.m. when I said there was some ensemble support for what Gobuth said about ridging coming back around the 23rd.  There was then and there is now.     So simple.  

[Jesse]

You are trying to find examples from the past and use it to stir up crap now. Just like you accused Matt of doing to you an hour ago.

 

 

The past five or so days ago versus the past a few years ago. Pretty big difference.

[TT-SEA]

The past five or so days ago versus the past a few years ago. Pretty big difference.

 

I attacked Jim in the last 5 days?   

 

You are being sanctimonious.  

[Deweydog]

It will probably warm up after a cool rainy period next week.

 

#hearditherefirst

[Jesse]

I attacked Jim in the last 5 days?

 

You are being sanctimonious.

You don't remember do you? I don't want to bother digging it up. But he was posting about the death ridge we just had breaking down and you made some smarmy remark along the lines of "What an incredible crash. I thought we were going to have 594 heights all month. That's what usually happens :) " or something along those lines.

 

Now just few days later you turn around and are using the same logic you were mocking to support your wishcasting. But that's ok since it's a ridge.

[Jesse]

It will probably warm up after a cool rainy period next week.

 

#hearditherefirst

I hope so. Some northerly flow and clearing skies behind the big trough could give some nice, crisp fall weather and also the chance at some cold lows.

[TT-SEA]

You don't remember do you? I don't want to bother digging it up. But he was posting about the death ridge we just had breaking down and you made some smarmy remark along the lines of "What an incredible crash. I thought we were going to have 594 heights all month. That's what usually happens :) " or something along those lines.

 

Now just few days later you turn around and are using the same logic you were mocking to support your wishcasting. But that's ok since it's a ridge.

 

Trying to find that post.   I have not been cheering against troughing this month at all... and in fact hoping it comes.   So I think you took it out of context.   But can't find it based on those keywords.   I remember something like that though.

[Jesse]

Trying to find that post.   I have not been cheering against troughing this month at all... and in fact hoping it comes.   So I think you took it out of context.   But can't find it based on those keywords.   I remember something like that though.

 

It was not so much what you were cheering for, but the fact that you were being an insufferable ****** to Jim for no reason other than him being enthusiastic about an anomalously warm pattern breaking down, much in the same way you are about next week's anomalously troughy pattern scooting out of here.

[James Jones]

I don't know about everyone else but the smoke is really thick again here. Strong smell of burning wood too.

 

Interesting pattern today. The first "cool" offshore flow event of the season.

 

I can see it just off to my north. Actually a pretty distinct line between blue sky and smoke.

[TT-SEA]

It was not so much what you were cheering for, but the fact that you were being an insufferable ****** to Jim for no reason other than him being enthusiastic about an anomalously warm pattern breaking down, much in the same way you are about next week's anomalously troughy pattern scooting out of here.

No. I am sure that was about this current trough. The real deal for next week was not in sight. I was just pointing out that Jim was overselling it... which he was. Not a big deal.

[Jesse]

No. I am sure that was about this current trough. The real deal for next week was not in sight. I was just pointing out that Jim was overselling it... which he was. Not a big deal.

 

You don't think you might be overselling ridging just a bit right now? Come on. You aren't a stupid man.

[Jesse]

I can see it just off to my north. Actually a pretty distinct line between blue sky and smoke.

 

Definitely seems to be hanging over Clark County for the most part. It was even thicker up in the Salmon Creek area.

[TT-SEA]

You don't think you might be overselling ridging just a bit right now? Come on. You aren't a stupid man.

 

 

Thanks Jesse.  

 

I am not overselling it.   I did not say hot... I did not even say warmer than normal.   The best I said today was around normal.    

 

This all started because I was pointing out that there was some ensemble support for what GobBluth said... you said it would probably push over the top for a very warm September.   I did not even say that.   

[snow_wizard]

Fabulous potential for some unusually cold mins tonight.  Many places have dps in the 30s with some in the low 30s.  Good shot at frost in the cold spots.

[snow_wizard]

It was not so much what you were cheering for, but the fact that you were being an insufferable ****** to Jim for no reason other than him being enthusiastic about an anomalously warm pattern breaking down, much in the same way you are about next week's anomalously troughy pattern scooting out of here.

 

Same old song and dance alright!

 

That trough next week is looking really cold right now.

[TT-SEA]

The 00Z EPS definitely has a ridgy signal in the last part of the month.   

 

 

This was my first post of the morning... responding to Jared who said there was no GFS ensemble support for what GobBluth said:

 

 

Prob fools gold but gfs insists that ridge builds back in around the 23rd.

 

 

I've been noticing the same thing. I think this month really wants the record. Got to hand it to the little guy for its tenacity.

 

[van city]

Strange fixation with day 10+ today.

Popcorn time!!!

[Jesse]

Thanks Jesse.  

 

I am not overselling it.   I did not say hot... I did not even say warmer than normal.   The best I said today was around normal.    

 

This all started because I was pointing out that there was some ensemble support for what GobBluth said... you said it would probably push over the top for a very warm September.   I did not even say that.   

 

My comment was a joke. But it sounds like maybe we are coming some sort of understanding. Honestly I would not mind some ridging nearby with northerly or northwesterly flow the last 1/3 of the month. That can make for some great fall weather. 

[TT-SEA]

My comment was a joke. But it sounds like maybe we are coming to an agreement. Honestly I would not mind some ridging nearby with northerly or northwesterly flow the last 1/3 of the month. That can make for some great fall weather. 

 

 

 

Indeed.   

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF output for Seattle... remember it frequently runs 3-5 degrees too cool for the Seattle area.   

 

Case in point... it showed 70 for today but the actual high was 74.

 

Normal high by the end of next week at SEA is 67.  

 

[Jesse]

And the forum breathes a collective sigh of relief. I have tamed the Tim Beast. For now....