September 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[Jesse]

12Z ECMWF is much less troughy after the middle of next week. And in fact appears to be going back towards ridging in the 8-10 day period.

 

 

Desperation is a stinky cologne.

[TT-SEA]

Desperation is a stinky cologne.

 

I am just reporting what the models show.   You liked my 12Z GFS post but my 12Z ECMWF post bothers you.   That is stinky!    

[Jesse]

I am just reporting what the models show. You liked my 12Z GFS post but my 12Z ECMWF post bothers you. That is stinky! They are very different runs.

Extrapolating that it is heading toward ridging is different than just stating what a model shows. That is still a pretty cool pattern at day 10, with below average 500mb heights. It might be a sunnier and drier pattern, but still cool.

[TT-SEA]

Extrapolating that it is heading toward ridging is different than just stating what a model shows. That is still a pretty cool pattern at day 10, with below average 500mb heights. It might be a sunnier and drier pattern, but still cool.

 

Did I say warm?   Sensitive today!  

 

It is definitely "less troughy" than the 12Z GFS in the 8-10 period.   And does in fact appear to be heading towards ridging with the trough digging out into the Bering Sea.   Time will tell.  

 

Here is the 12Z GFS at day 8:

 

And the 12Z ECMWF at day 8:

 

 

Is the 12Z ECMWF "less troughy" than the GFS for later next week??   You make the call.  

[Jesse]

Did I say warm? Sensitive today!

 

It is definitely "less troughy" than the 12Z GFS in the 8-10 period. And does in fact appear to be heading towards ridging with the trough digging out into the Bering Sea. Time will tell.

 

Here is the 12Z GFS at day 8:

 

And the 12Z ECMWF at day 8:

 

 

Is the 12Z ECMWF "less troughy" than the GFS for later next week?? You make the call.

Desperation is a stinky cologne.

[TT-SEA]

Desperation is a stinky cologne.

 

I know.   I have been smelling it on you for months.

 

I am just reporting on the models.   Sometimes you will like my posts and sometimes you will attack my posts.   All depends on what the models show.   So it goes.  

[Jesse]

I know. I have been smelling it on you for months.

 

I am just reporting on the models. Sometimes you will like my posts and sometimes you will attack my posts. All depends on what the models show. So it goes.

Oh Tim...

[TT-SEA]

Oh Tim...

Oh Jesse...

[Front Ranger]

Cue Dewey: "You both stink."

[Front Ranger]

12Z ECMWF is much less troughy after the middle of next week compared to the GFS.   And in fact appears to be going back towards ridging in the 8-10 day period. 

 

It never really gets there, though, and actually at day 10 it looks more like another shortwave is dropping down towards the PNW as ridging remains well offshore.

 

 

Like I said, the Euro is something of a compromise between the very troughy GFS and somewhat ridgy CMC in the 8-10 day period. It will probably be closest to correct.

[TT-SEA]

It never really gets there, though, and actually at day 10 it looks more like another shortwave is dropping down towards the PNW as ridging remains well offshore.

 

ecmwf_z500a_namer_11.png

 

Like I said, the Euro is something of a compromise between the very troughy GFS and somewhat ridgy CMC in the 8-10 day period. It will probably be closest to correct.

 

 

Yes... it is noticeably "less troughy" than the GFS for later next week.   

[Jesse]

Oh Jesse...

[Phil]

I know. I have been smelling it on you for months.

 

I am just reporting on the models. Sometimes you will like my posts and sometimes you will attack my posts. All depends on what the models show. So it goes.

Temperatures are solidly below average throughout the run.

 

Extrapolating a single OP run beyond d10 is silly and pointless.

[TT-SEA]

Temperatures are solidly below average throughout the run.

 

Extrapolating a single OP run beyond d10 is silly and pointless.

 

No kidding.

 

I did not say it was warm.   I have pointed that out several times now.   

 

I said it was "less troughy" than the GFS.   This is a simple fact and just an observation.  

 

You also have long history of saying temps look solidly below normal here but it does always not work out that way.   

 

Sunday - Wednesday will definitely be solidly below normal.   Beyond that... not as clear.  

[Timmy]

Strange smoke front moving in from the NE

[Phil]

I said it was "less troughy" than the GFS. This is a simple fact and just an observation.

 

You also have long history of saying temps are solidly below normal here but it does always not work out that way.

Days 1-5:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/16CA52C3-8CB5-436F-9A38-6F88D729BABA_zpsrrlycpod.png

 

Days 5-10:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/13CE5770-7AB5-438F-A11E-16BD2C174BD0_zpsuezbrcvg.png

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS does not look real troughy at day 10.  

 

[Jesse]

No kidding.

 

I did not say it was warm. I have pointed that out several times now.

 

I said it was "less troughy" than the GFS. This is a simple fact and just an observation.

 

You also have long history of saying temps look solidly below normal here but it does always not work out that way.

 

Sunday - Wednesday will definitely be solidly below normal. Beyond that... not as clear.

I'm sure we will be getting hour by hour reports of SEA's temperature anomaly potential for the day soon, or how it is running warmer than Jim et al thought. Then maybe even a webcam shot of a sun break in Covington. Followed by a day-15 hosted image of the GEM showing 594 heights over us.

 

I guess at very least this behavior will let us know that a cool period is back. You calm down a lot when temperatures are comfortably above average for weeks. Nothing to go to war against. The cold freaks are properly crushed and demoralized, as they should always be for holding such perverse preferences.

[Phil]

12Z EPS does not look real troughy at day 10.

 

It's troughy. Anomalies probably more helpful here.

 

Day 10 on the 12z EPS:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/B67A548F-D436-4146-86C8-5BB69A18D53C_zpsmatlwgkb.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/D80BBA21-1CC3-4410-9F74-0E3964F5E839_zpsdyb4qyks.png

[TT-SEA]

Days 1-5:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/16CA52C3-8CB5-436F-9A38-6F88D729BABA_zpsrrlycpod.png

 

Days 6-10:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/13CE5770-7AB5-438F-A11E-16BD2C174BD0_zpsuezbrcvg.png

 

5-day averages of 850mb temps does not always tell the story here Phil... you should know that by now.

 

Average high later next week in Seattle is 67 or 68 degrees.   ECMWF shows exactly that in the 8-10 day period and it has a cool bias.   

 

You are blending the actual solidly below normal period from day 3-7 into the entire run.   

[ShawniganLake]

Pretty strong offshore flow today. NE gusting to 30mph in Abbotsford.

 

Seems unlikely that we see anymore sustained ridging this month. With the exception of a day or two here and there it seems most likely that the ridging stays to our NW.

[TT-SEA]

It's troughy. Anomalies probably more helpful here.

 

Day 10 on the 12z EPS:

 

 

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/D80BBA21-1CC3-4410-9F74-0E3964F5E839_zpsdyb4qyks.png

 

Not by the next day...

 

[Front Ranger]

Yes... it is noticeably "less troughy" than the GFS for later next week.   

 

You also said it appeared to be going back towards ridging.

[Front Ranger]

12Z EPS does not look real troughy at day 10.  

 

 

Hour 288 is not day 10.

 

You're all over the place today.

[TT-SEA]

You also said it appeared to be going back towards ridging.

 

It does.   The control run is exactly the same as the operational run at day 10.

 

Here is the control run at day 12... it went towards ridging.   

 

[Phil]

12z EPS, days 8-13.

 

Not troughy.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/45801A39-E1E9-4CF8-B4B6-3350A172C8B4_zpsqk2h25rm.png

[Front Ranger]

5-day averages of 850mb temps does not always tell the story here Phil... you should know that by now.

 

Average high later next week in Seattle is 67 or 68 degrees.   ECMWF shows exactly that in the 8-10 day period and it has a cool bias.   

 

You are blending the actual solidly below normal period from day 3-7 into the entire run.   

 

Most places would have below normal lows with that pattern, though. SEA...who knows.

[TT-SEA]

Hour 288 is not day 10.

 

You're all over the place today.

 

Mistake.    Grabbed wrong image.  

[TT-SEA]

Day 13 of the EPS... definitely going towards ridging (same with control run).   

 

 

[Jesse]

Good lord...

[Geos]

Quite the intense conversation in here today.

Longer nights and smoke free nights are dropping those lows down. Another morning in the 40s - 47.

 

It doesn't looks like any sustained ridging over the region for the next couple weeks from what I gather. More transient ridges.

[Front Ranger]

Strange fixation with day 10+ today.

[TT-SEA]

Most places would have below normal lows with that pattern, though. SEA...who knows.

 

I hate blending 5 days.  

 

In reality the 6-10 period on the ECMWF:  6 and 7 well below normal and days 8-10 near normal.    

 

It averages below normal for the 5 days but is going towards ridging and warmer temps.  

[Jesse]

We rarely have such drawn out debates with so many maps when weeks of warm ridging look imminent. Even people like Jim or Andrew or I who prefer cooler conditions mostly roll with it or don't post at all. But if a potentially prolonged troughy period shows up, uh oh! Tim is scared shitless and suddenly this place becomes VERY active. Lots of day 10+ maps, lots of hyperbole.

[TT-SEA]

Strange fixation with day 10+ today.

 

Actually... my original comment was that the ECMWF was less troughy than the GFS later next week (8-10 period) and appeared to be heading towards ridging.   That is factual.   

[Front Ranger]

I hate blending 5 days.  

 

In reality the 6-10 period on the ECMWF:  6 and 7 well below normal and days 8-10 near normal.    

 

It averages below normal for the 5 days but is going towards ridging and warmer temps.  

 

Highs yes. Probably not lows.

[Phil]

Yay, the SE ridge breaks down by day 15. Time to follow Tim down the clown range rabbit hole.

[TT-SEA]

We never have such drawn out debates with so many maps when weeks of warm ridging look imminent. Even people like Jim or Andrew or I who prefer cooler conditions mostly roll with it or don't post at all. But if a potentially prolonged troughy period shows up, uh oh! Tim is scared shitless and suddenly this place becomes VERY active. Lots of maps, lots of herperbole.

 

Actually... you attacking me for factual posts that annoy you is what starts the debate.   

 

I am looking forward to a deep trough.   I like variety and would love more rain right now.     Its been a little too gorgeous over the last 3 months.   

[TT-SEA]

Yay, the SE ridge breaks down by day 15. Time to follow Tim down the clown range rabbit hole.

 

You were just posting clown range Eurasia maps earlier today!

[stuffradio]

We rarely have such drawn out debates with so many maps when weeks of warm ridging look imminent. Even people like Jim or Andrew or I who prefer cooler conditions mostly roll with it or don't post at all. But if a potentially prolonged troughy period shows up, uh oh! Tim is scared shitless and suddenly this place becomes VERY active. Lots of day 10+ maps, lots of hyperbole.

I wouldn't say that.

 

Day 13 of the EPS... definitely going towards ridging (same with control run).   

 

 

You should know better than to extrapolate seriously from hours past 240.