September 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[Front Ranger]

Sadly you still need plenty of work.

 

And you still aren't butt hurt, and never have been, not one bit.

[Front Ranger]

Sun angle is a pretty big difference though.  

 

I'm not among those who have lead the "September is at least as much a summer month here as June" charge in the past. I've been the one arguing that June stands toe to toe with September!

 

But temp/precip wise, they're pretty darn close.

[stuffradio]

Here's another good read I found from NOAA. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/september-enso-update-la-ni%C3%B1a-watch

[Jesse]

Oh well. Speculative pseudo-science is more how this forum rolls anyhow.

This seems pretty rude. Statman contributes quite a bit here, and his observation is likely a valid one.

[TT-SEA]

I'm not among those who have lead the "September is at least as much a summer month here as June" charge in the past. I've been the one arguing that June stands toe to toe with September!

 

But temp/precip wise, they're pretty darn close.

 

Yes... our normal slow start to summer ends up putting on June and September on par in that regard.    But June feels way more like summer when its sunny.  

[Front Ranger]

I barely made a complaining peep during the first wettest winter in history... 2015-16.   

 

And I did great through the second wettest winter in history until we got into late March with no end in sight.   I was pretty surly last April and first half of May... it got a little ridiculous and my expectations increase with the sun angle.  

 

[Front Ranger]

This seems pretty rude. Statman contributes quite a bit here, and his observation is likely a valid one.

 

To the easily offended, yes. You really misread the intent of many of my posts.

 

It wasn't an affront to statman, it was a lighthearted poke at all of us.

[Jesse]

To the easily offended, yes. You really misread the intent of many of my posts.

 

It wasn't an affront to statman, it was a lighthearted poke at all of us.

Maybe you're just bad at expressing yourself.

[Jbolin]

Decent chance of Aurora tonight if anyone's interested. 

RTWS is good at over 690km/s and current Bz is 3.3 nT 
Kp is currently a (6)
 

[Front Ranger]

Maybe you're just bad at expressing yourself.

 

Maybe everything is my fault? 

 

Seems reasonable.

[TT-SEA]

Absolutely awesome tomato production from our garden this year... same with zucchinis and pumpkins.   Likely a benefit of the warm late summer.

 

And our trellis vines are teeming with grapes right now.   My dad is going to make wine from them.  

 

[Jesse]

Decent chance of Aurora tonight if anyone's interested.

 

RTWS is good at over 690km/s and current Bz is 3.3 nT

Kp is currently a (6)

 

Interesting. We'll be camping out at a farm near Mount Angel tomorrow night, for Oktoberfest. I wonder if they will still be going on then. Would be good to view them away from city lights.

[wx_statman]

Oh well. Speculative pseudo-science is more how this forum rolls anyhow.

 

If you're talking about the November 2014 typhoon remnants - jet stream buckle connection, it was widely discussed by the meteorological community at the time.

[wx_statman]

This seems pretty rude. Statman contributes quite a bit here, and his observation is likely a valid one.

 

It did sound like he thought I was throwing out a personal theory, didn't it? The only reason I brought up Nov 2014 was because the typhoon remnants hitting AK were so widely discussed at the time as helping to buckle the jet stream.

[BLI snowman]

September is every bit the summer month that June is in the PNW, sun angles aside.

 

We've been over this one before. That is generally only true from the Puget Sound on northward. Oregon and southern WA show distinctly warmer highs in September than in June. 

[Front Ranger]

If you're talking about the November 2014 typhoon remnants - jet stream buckle connection, it was widely discussed by the meteorological community at the time.

 

 

Why would I be talking about that? My response had to do with whether there were actually any studies on hurricanes and jet stream buckles in general. The second comment was simply about the nature of the amateur science that happens on this forum, and every weather forum I've ever seen.

 

If I'm going to take issue with something you personally said, you won't have to read between the lines. 

[Front Ranger]

It did sound like he thought I was throwing out a personal theory, didn't it? The only reason I brought up Nov 2014 was because the typhoon remnants hitting AK were so widely discussed at the time as helping to buckle the jet stream.

 

This is unnecessary, since I already clarified.

[Front Ranger]

We've been over this one before. That is generally only true from the Puget Sound on northward. Oregon and southern WA show distinctly warmer highs in September than in June. 

 

So you'd argue September is more of a summer month than June in the PNW? Ok...my point was that September is still summer in the PNW, as much as June is.

[Phil]

Decent chance of Aurora tonight if anyone's interested.

 

RTWS is good at over 690km/s and current Bz is 3.3 nT

Kp is currently a (6)

 

Boooo.

[BLI snowman]

So you'd argue September is more of a summer month than June in the PNW? Ok...my point was that September is still summer in the PNW, as much as June is.

 

I think it's kind of a pointless either/or debate.

 

I do know that September has quantifiably warmer average maximum temperatures than June in my backyard. And my backyard matters. A lot. 

[Front Ranger]

In other news...0z GFS still chilly, with reinforcing cold troughing after first trough.

 

And Jose gives NYC a kiss.

[Jesse]

It did sound like he thought I was throwing out a personal theory, didn't it? The only reason I brought up Nov 2014 was because the typhoon remnants hitting AK were so widely discussed at the time as helping to buckle the jet stream.

I thought it was weird considering you are probably one of the people who most consistently post purely fact based stuff here.

[Front Ranger]

I think it's kind of a pointless either/or debate.

 

I do know that September has quantifiably warmer average maximum temperatures than June in my backyard. And my backyard matters. A lot. 

 

But what about the sun angles???

 

That wasn't really the debate here. It was just if September is still summer in the PNW. I vote yes.

[Front Ranger]

I thought it was weird considering you are probably one of the people who most consistently post purely fact based stuff here.

 

Maybe that should have given you pause before assuming that I'd just taken a on statman?

[TT-SEA]

In other news...0z GFS still chilly, with reinforcing cold troughing after first trough.

 

And Jose gives NYC a kiss.

 

Yes... still going with second trough on the 00Z GFS.    We will see if the ECMWF caves.

 

[Jesse]

I think it's kind of a pointless either/or debate.

 

I do know that September has quantifiably warmer average maximum temperatures than June in my backyard. And my backyard matters. A lot.

September is generally a mild and sunny early fall month, for sure. But sometimes, like with the upcoming pattern, we can definitely get tastes of later in the season.

 

I have a hard time calling it a summer month given the phenology and shortening days at this point though. September has a whole different feel than June, when it's getting dark at 10, the weather is generally getting warmer and drier throuout the month, and you have the whole summer ahead of you. For September things are clearly winding down as nature is preparing for winter, we lose about two hours of daylight over the course of the month, and the last half has the potential to be quite cool and stormy.

[Jesse]

Maybe that should have given you pause before assuming that I'd just taken a s**t on statman?

Apparently he felt that way too. It was hard to not read the post that way.

[BLI snowman]

But what about the sun angles???

 

That wasn't really the debate here. It was just if September is still summer in the PNW. I vote yes.

 

Sun angles say it should be snowing right now since it snowed a lot in early April before. I like snow.

[Front Ranger]

September is generally a mild and sunny early fall month, for sure. But sometimes, like with the upcoming pattern, we can definitely get tastes of later in the season.

 

I have a hard time calling it a summer month given the phenology and shortening days at this point though. September has a whole different feel than June, when it's getting dark at 10, the weather is generally getting warmer and drier throuout the month, and you have the whole summer ahead of you. For September things are clearly winding down as nature is preparing for winter, we lose about two hours of daylight over the course of the month, and the last half has the potential to be quite cool and stormy.

 

I get what you're saying, but by the same logic, November is more of a winter month (nationally even) than February. Shorter days, the whole winter ahead of you, etc.

[Jesse]

I get what you're saying, but by the same logic, November is more of a winter month (nationally even) than February. Shorter days, the whole winter ahead of you, etc.

It's easiest just to stick with the meteorological definition of the seasons IMO. It's not perfect but fits pretty well.

[Front Ranger]

Apparently he felt that way too. It was hard to not read the post that way.

 

Well, I clarified.

 

You misread a lot of my posts, regardless.

[BLI snowman]

September is generally a mild and sunny early fall month, for sure. But sometimes, like with the upcoming pattern, we can definitely get tastes of later in the season.

 

I have a hard time calling it a summer month given the phenology and shortening days at this point though. September has a whole different feel than June, when it's getting dark at 10, the weather is generally getting warmer and drier throuout the month, and you have the whole summer ahead of you. For September things are clearly winding down as nature is preparing for winter, we lose about two hours of daylight over the course of the month, and the last half has the potential to be quite cool and stormy.

 

It almost feels like it's 2/3 a summer month and about 1/3 fall. Probably just a crazy theory though.

[Front Ranger]

It's easiest just to stick with the meteorological definition of the seasons IMO. It's not perfect but fits pretty well.

 

Not as much for the PNW, especially in the modern climate. BLI snowman will tell you that in a heartbeat, statman probably too.

 

February has not been nearly the winter month that December has for quite awhile, and it's really hard to argue based on stats that September is more fall than June is spring.

[Front Ranger]

It almost feels like it's 2/3 a summer month and about 1/3 fall. Probably just a crazy theory though.

 

I've said before that meteorological summer for the PNW is basically June 10 - Sep 15. Give or take a few days, if you want. 

[TT-SEA]

I get what you're saying, but by the same logic, November is more of a winter month (nationally even) than February. Shorter days, the whole winter ahead of you, etc.

 

November - January feels like winter here.  

 

February - June is usually spring

 

July and August and the first week of September is summer.

 

Most of September and October is fall.  

 

We obviously spend the most time in our endless spring.  

[Jesse]

Not as much for the PNW, especially in the modern climate. BLI snowman will tell you that in a heartbeat, statman probably too.

 

February has not been nearly the winter month that December had for quite awhile, and it's really hard to argue based on stats that September is more fall than June is spring.

Leaves start changing sometime in September. Hit a peak of color in October. Falling off throughout November. Are usually gone by December. Trees are then generally bare through the end of February (except for Tim's). Stuff is mostly dormant Dec-Feb. Flowers and stuff start to bloom noticeably in March, grass greens up. Flowers, thunderstorms and other springy stuff hit a peak in May. By June marine layer becomes a thing, four corners high, trees are green. Feels summery. Summer peaks in July/early August. Things gradually dry out. Days shorten. Cycle repeats.

 

It works for me.

[BLI snowman]

I've said before that meteorological summer for the PNW is basically June 10 - Sep 15. Give or take a few days, if you want. 

 

Yeah I like June 15 to September 20, if we're going to bookend it.

[Front Ranger]

November - January feels like winter here.  

 

February - June is usually spring

 

July and August and the first week of September is summer.

 

Most of September and October is fall.  

 

We obviously spend the most time in our endless spring.  

 

Based on the last 50 years or so...

 

Nov 15 - Feb 20 is winter.

 

Feb 20 - Jun 10 is spring (June is still rated as more spring-like than it actually is thanks to 2008, 2010, 2011, and 2012 in some people's minds, I think)

 

Jun 10 - Sep 15 is summer.

 

Sep 15 - Nov 15 is fall.

[Front Ranger]

Yeah I like June 15 to September 20, if we're going to bookend it.

 

I would just say look at the records for Jun 1-15 compared to Sep 20 - 30...one seems less summery than the other to me.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

I'm liking the 0z GFS, not much of a SW rain shadow in sight.