September 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[stuffradio]

Still looks pretty bad for the Island:

 

http://bcfireinfo.for.gov.bc.ca/Weather/Maps/pcp.png

[High Desert Mat!]

Every once in a while. Like February 1989. I'd say highs around 15 and easterly gusts to 60 mph is pretty arctic. 1000mb-500mb thicknesses dropped to 505 so it was definitely a dome of Arctic air with only minimal "modification."

I thought '89 would be, but no others since then? I remember '03-'04 was pretty epic without the temps albeit they were "cold", but maybe '08 might've fit the description with the snowfall at least? The blast of '03-'04 was pretty solid in the pdx area although it was mostly a gorge/eastwind event. So maybe say a true blast would be highs in the teens on the west side?

[Front Ranger]

EUG already down to 50. OLM down to 52.

[Deweydog]

I thought '89 would be, but no others since then? I remember '03-'04 was pretty epic without the temps albeit they were "cold", but maybe '08 might've fit the description with the snowfall at least? The blast of '03-'04 was pretty solid in the pdx area although it was mostly a gorge/eastwind event. So maybe say a true blast would be highs in the teens on the west side?

Some are less modified than others, but they're all modified. Highs in the teens in the Arctic during mid winter would be pretty toasty.

[Front Ranger]

Some are less modified than others, but they're all modified. Highs in the teens in the Arctic during mid winter would be pretty toasty.

 

Dec 1990 was my first exposure to the term "Arctic Blast". I believe "Polar Express" was also used. 

 

#mediatellsuswhatwewanttohear

[wx_statman]

I thought '89 would be, but no others since then? I remember '03-'04 was pretty epic without the temps albeit they were "cold", but maybe '08 might've fit the description with the snowfall at least? The blast of '03-'04 was pretty solid in the pdx area although it was mostly a gorge/eastwind event. So maybe say a true blast would be highs in the teens on the west side?

 

We haven't seen cold air advection on the level of Feb 1989 since. Events like Jan 2004 and Dec 2008 were driven by low level outflow from the gorge. Can't really compare those two to 1989.

[wx_statman]

54/24 at Burns today. Decently cold day for 9-21.

[luminen]

54/24 at Burns today. Decently cold day for 9-21.

 

How about Meacham?

[wx_statman]

How about Meacham?

 

Not as impressive.

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=pqr&sid=KMEH&num=60&raw=0&banner=off

[Front Ranger]

OLM and McChord already in the 40s.

[Deweydog]

Dec 1990 was my first exposure to the term "Arctic Blast". I believe "Polar Express" was also used.

 

#mediatellsuswhatwewanttohear

The Big Chill!!!!!!

[snow_wizard]

I thought '89 would be, but no others since then? I remember '03-'04 was pretty epic without the temps albeit they were "cold", but maybe '08 might've fit the description with the snowfall at least? The blast of '03-'04 was pretty solid in the pdx area although it was mostly a gorge/eastwind event. So maybe say a true blast would be highs in the teens on the west side?

 

From 1950 to present I would say the following had about as close to a true blast as you will see in the NW.

 

Jan 1950

Nov 1955

Jan 1957

Dec 1968

Dec 1972

Dec 1983

Nov 1985

Feb 1989

Dec 1990

Nov 2010 (mainly WA)

Dec 2013

 

I have to call Feb 1989 the most wicked blast I have seen.  It was freezing up in the Seattle area in the middle of the day even before the Arctic front arrived.  Just the fringe was as cold as many of our traditional blasts.

[wx_statman]

Just checked Salem's POR. Turns out yesteday's 59/44 was the earliest in the season they have seen a 1) max of 59 or lower in conjunction with 2) min of 44 or lower. I couldn't believe it. They had earlier occurrences in other years at 60/45, 59/45, etc...even a 55/45 on September 16, 1910. Also a 53/34 day on September 22, 1934.

 

But never an earlier day at

 

As an interesting (to some) sidenote, while sorting through sub-59 maximums I noticed that Salem actually set a record in 2011 for number of maximums at or below 59 for a year, with 192 total. Previously the benchmark had been 191 days in both 1893 (the first year of observations and a La Nina) and 1975 - another Nina. I keep finding nuggets here and there that speak to just how impressively cool 2011 was in our region.

[epiceast]

Tim can we get some snow maps for interior west for this upcoming storm on 00z Euro?

Thanks

[ShawniganLake]

Sunny and 65F up this way today and it's not cooling down particularly quickly tonight with some clouds rolling in, still no hints of "greening". Better luck next time?

 

On the plus the house warmed to 70F and I haven't had to turn the furnace on since mid-spring.

Got up to 68F here today, which is actually a +1F on the high temp.

[stuffradio]

On the 00Z Thickness drops to 536 at hour 372 with an 850mb temp of 0. Carrots! Looks like 00Z gives me the first frost of the year at hour 372 with a temp of 38F (probably slightly cooler at my house)

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS is mostly dry for the next 17 days except for a few showers now and then. Some dry weather will be greatly appreciated after all this rain for the last 5 days.

 

It will be nice to enjoy the best part of fall without worrying about smoke ruining the views or it being too dry.

[TT-SEA]

Came through Stevenson tonight... looks like a really nice town even in the dark. We went around through Yakima to avoid traffic.

 

We left home in the sun and drove into rain on the east side of the mountains. And then had rain from Goldendale to Lyle and drove out of it going west.

 

Backwards!

[TT-SEA]

Tim can we get some snow maps for interior west for this upcoming storm on 00z Euro?

Thanks

 

 

Through day 6:

 

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF sure has different ideas in the 8-10 day period.

[stuffradio]

It's down to 49F now.

[wx_statman]

Reno had snow pellets this afternoon with temps in the mid-40's

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=pqr&sid=krno&num=60&raw=0&banner=off

[wx_statman]

RECORD EVENT REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV

0645 PM PDT THU SEP 21 2017
 

...RECORD DAILY MINIMUM MAX TEMPERATURES SET AT

ELKO...EUREKA...TONOPAH AIRPORTS NV...
 

...RECORD MAXIMUM RAINFALL SET AT ELY AIRPORT NV...
 

A RECORD MINIMUM MAX TEMPERATURE OF 41 DEGREES WAS SET AT ELKO

AIRPORT NV TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 54 SET IN 1998.
 

A RECORD MINIMUM MAX TEMPERATURE OF 44 DEGREES WAS SET AT EUREKA

AIRPORT NV TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 54 SET IN 2004.
 

A RECORD MINIMUM MAX TEMPERATURE OF 57 DEGREES WAS SET AT TONOPAH

AIRPORT NV TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 58 SET IN 1968.

 

[wx_statman]

The maximum at Elko was actually 43, set early this morning. Just the afternoon high was 41...I don't know why the NWS can't report numbers properly.

 

Elko missed their monthly record low max of 42 on 9/30/1971, but did set an early season record. Previous earliest 43 degree high was on 9/25/1948.

 

This has turned out to be a pretty epic cold trough.

[Jesse]

00Z ECMWF sure has different ideas in the 8-10 day period.

[Phil]

00Z ECMWF sure has different ideas in the 8-10 day period.

I think your summer is over.

[stuffradio]

I think your summer is over.

Wow, 6Z is quite chilly at the 850 level in the long range.

[Geos]

Not too cold last night. Went down to 47. 

[TT-SEA]

I think your summer is over.

Yes... its fall.

[stuffradio]

Yes... its fall.

Not yet, not for another 4 hours and 53 minutes!

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Got up to 68F here today, which is actually a +1F on the high temp.

 

A low of nearly 53F here last night; this hasn't been a particularly impressive cool airmass in our area.

[Farmboy]

00Z ECMWF sure has different ideas in the 8-10 day period.

Such as?

[Front Ranger]

00Z ECMWF sure has different ideas in the 8-10 day period.

 

Looks like it's on its own for now with the troughing returning that fast.

[ShawniganLake]

A low of nearly 53F here last night; this hasn't been a particularly impressive cool airmass in our area.

It was pretty chilly up here a few days ago. Things have shifted south since.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like it's on its own for now with the troughing returning that fast.

But it is the ECMWF.

[Timmy]

But it is the ECMWF.

King gfs tho

[TT-SEA]

Looking out at the Gorge from Skamania Lodge this morning and it looks like the Oregon side is still smoldering.   Hard to tell for sure with the low clouds but pretty sure its still smoky over there.

[Timmy]

Looking out at the Gorge from Skamania Lodge this morning and it looks like the Oregon side is still smoldering. Hard to tell for sure with the low clouds but pretty sure its still smoky over there.

I would imagine it would be, trees take forever to stop burning. I'm sure any threat of spread is gone now though.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like a sunny morning around the Seattle area and at home.   Low clouds here.  

[Phil]

Wow, 6Z is quite chilly at the 850 level in the long range.

I'm envious. Pattern progression is beautiful for you guys in the long run..that Scandinavia/Eurasia pattern is removing a bunch of AAM upstream, which is going to build the NPAC High/-PNA and favor a -NAM. Meanwhile, I'm gonna roast for a third consecutive autumn.

 

We saw last winter how the Scandinavian Ridge preceded all of the western cold shots/-PNA bursts. One of the more reliable indicators I've been able to uncover (in years with similar boundary conditions).