October 2017 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

^^^ Last HOT month for a while, dare I say it?  In the spring of '13 I made a bold statement that we were going to "miss the warmth of 2010-2012" and we sure did, with the bulk of the next 2+ yrs being cold to very cold around the GL's region.

I've been pondering about that idea in my mind over the past few months.  I'm learning more about the solar minimum that is forthcoming and the behavior over the Arctic in recent years.  There is some evidence that suggest we will see strides towards global cooling over the next couple years.  I believe the beginning clues are the developing La Nina this year, as well as, the oceans across the globe that have been cooling.  Much more blues on the global SST maps.

 

 

[westMJim]

Here is the October wrap for Grand Rapids, MI the average high/low for the month was 64.2°/45.9°. The highest was 82° on the 2^nd and 3^rd The coldest for the month was 28° on the 26^th The mean for the month was 55.2° and this was the warmest October at GRR since 2007.  With 9.69” of precipitation it was the wettest October in Grand Rapids recorded history and the 5^th all-time wettest month at Grand Rapids.  There was 0.4” of snow fall all falling on the 31^st but that was -0.1” below average.

[Minny_Weather]

October was a roller coaster month in Lincoln, beginning very active, ending very active, and fairly boring in the middle. The first week included the bulk of the month's precipitation, with multiple daily records being set. The first freeze was achieved unexpectedly on October 11, after many forecasts called for lows well above freezing. After that, only .31" of precipitation fell for the rest of the month. The yo-yo pattern continued, with 80's being recorded on the 18th and 19th. A significant pattern change began on the 24th, as a streak of windy days began, signalling the start of a more active pattern. All but one day that week (Wednesday) recorded a wind gust of at least 35mph, with many days recording gusts over 45mph. Finally, the coldest air of the season was ushered in on the 26th. In turn, the first hard freeze occurred on the morning of the 28th. On the 31st, the first flakes flew around Lincoln! It accumulated more in the Southern part of Lincoln than central or Northern parts, due to a combo of heat island and unfavorable trends, with as much as .5" seen in Southern Lincoln. The airport recorded only a trace, leaving the last October with measurable snow officially still as 2009.

 

At KLNK, the highest temperature recorded was 84 on the second. The lowest temperature recorded was 22 on the 28th. The highest recorded minimum temperature was 63 on the 2nd, and the lowest recorded maximum temperature was 36 on the 31st. The first freeze of the season occurred on the 11th at 30 degrees. No temperature records were tied or broken for the month. 4.90" of precipitation fell, the bulk in the first 10 days of the month. This is 2.93" above the normal precipitation amount of 1.97" for October. This is good for the 4th highest precipitation amount in October on record. Two daily records were set for precipitation. 1.34" on the 5th, and 1.18" on the 6th. A trace of snow fell at the airport, which is a trace above the normal October snowfall of 0.0".

 

D****T, WestMJim beat me.

[mlgamer]

Topeka officially recorded 0.4" of snow on Halloween and that was the total for October.

 

That is the first measurable snow in October here since 1996.

 

Hopefully that is a sign of good things to come.

[jaster220]

D****T, WestMJim beat me.

 

    tough to Ninja the 3rd degree black belt of stats, but I like your in depth read. Nothing against WMJ's either ofc 

[jaster220]

I've been pondering about that idea in my mind over the past few months.  I'm learning more about the solar minimum that is forthcoming and the behavior over the Arctic in recent years.  There is some evidence that suggest we will see strides towards global cooling over the next couple years.  I believe the beginning clues are the developing La Nina this year, as well as, the oceans across the globe that have been cooling.  Much more blues on the global SST maps.

 

 

 

To the bolded..

 

Yeah, JB's been showing from time-to-time the expected pendulum swing to the extreme opposite post-super Nino. That's pretty typical as seen in prior yrs. (Chicago Christmas '82 vs '83 was the extreme reflection of such trend). But, I think he's also factoring in the Solar Cycle, as well as the flip in the Atlantic from warm phase to cold phase which we've not seen in a long time. Don't remember what year it went warm tbh. Thus, multiple factors this go-around. When I made my call in 2013, it was based on disco in the local MI forum, and was based less on global scenario and more on the regional scenario and organic forecasting principals. Nature has to balance out over time, and we were just ending those historic record-shattering hot years and the belief was that that needed to be balanced. My idea, based on for one, the 82 to 83 contrast for example, was that we could expect it to happen sooner than later. Ofc, no crystal ball here so it was an educated hunch if you will. Nonetheless, it proved prophetic as they say. 

[Minny_Weather]

    tough to Ninja the 3rd degree black belt of stats, but I like your in depth read. Nothing against WMJ's either ofc 

You quoted the wrong person 

[jzuzphreek]

Welp, I experienced my first ever October/Halloween snow yesterday! the closest Wunderground station reported only a trace, but it fell for about 2 hours longer than forecast. My kids were thrilled! My 3 year old daughter had never experienced snow at all, and was a bit perturbed at first since it wouldn't stop hitting her face and getting in the car when she was getting buckled in. So, she told that snow a thing or two, like only a 3 year old can. Later, she became fascinated! 

 

What a great experience! Looking forward to what November will bring! 

[jaster220]

A quick look back at an exciting October for SWMI