October 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[BLI snowman]

48 at PDX at 1pm with moderate rain on 10-21. If this were December this would be............................ a cold rain.

 

Such a close call!!!

[BLI snowman]

Chilly, firehose, ridge was basically his forecast. Pretty accurate.

 

Yeah, Phil has done pretty well with the bigger picture the past few weeks.

[Guest happ]

No doubt.  It worked out really well in 1949 at least.

 

1949 was a year to remember that included snowfall down to sea level in LA in Jan. Pasadena recorded 8 inches of snow.

 

Canoga Pk Jan 1949 Wikipedia photo

[Front Ranger]

Good lord...

 

Great input.

[Front Ranger]

Chilly, firehose, ridge was basically his forecast. Pretty accurate.

 

Would be nice to see it somewhere. It's completely valid that he says a lot of things at different times, usually spread throughout a huge thread.

[Phil]

Honest question: didn't you say the second half of this month was going to be dominated by GOA troughing?

 

You say a lot of things at different times, and it can be hard to keep track of. I'm sure some people will jump on this as me being overly critical of you or whatever, but that's not it. I just honestly have trouble keeping track of everything you say, and others have expressed this previously too. It would probably help if you posted your thoughts/forecasts in one specific thread. Just a suggestion.

It's fine. I thought the second half of the month, in terms of the progression, would first resemble a GOA/AK vortex (+EPO) with "flat ridging" underneath a strong/zonal NPAC jet, gradually transitioning into a full-latitude western ridge by the end of the month into the start of November as the pattern amplified.

 

Minor timing errors aside (transition might be faster than I was thinking), I believe this forecast largely verified.

[Front Ranger]

1949 was a year to remember that included snowfall down to sea level in LA in Jan. Pasadena recorded 8 inches of snow.

 

Canoga Pk Jan 1949 Wikipedia photo

 

Yeah, though 1949-50 was absolutely epic for the PNW and parts of the northern Rockies/plains, 1948-49 was easily the more complete winter for the West as a whole. Consistently cold and stormy up and down the west coast and throughout the interior West from Dec-Feb.

[Phil]

Yeah, Phil has done pretty well with the bigger picture the past few weeks.

Chilly, firehose, ridge was basically his forecast. Pretty accurate.

Thank you.

 

Hopefully my lucky streak doesn't end in January.

[Kayla]

It's fine. I thought the second half of the month, in terms of the progression, would first resemble a GOA/AK vortex (+EPO) with "flat ridging" underneath a strong/zonal NPAC jet, gradually transitioning into a full-latitude western ridge by the end of the month into the start of November as the pattern amplified.

 

Minor timing errors aside (transition might be faster than I was thinking), I believe this forecast largely verified.

 

Question now is, where do we go after the first week of November??

[Deweydog]

Great input.

I think most people feel the same.

[Front Ranger]

It's fine. I thought the second half of the month, in terms of the progression, would first resemble a GOA/AK vortex (+EPO) with "flat ridging" underneath a strong/zonal NPAC jet, gradually transitioning into a full-latitude western ridge by the end of the month into the start of November as the pattern amplified.

 

Minor timing errors aside (transition might be faster than I was thinking), I believe this forecast largely verified.

 

Thanks. Yeah, even though it will end probably up more ridgy than +EPO for the GOA when all is said and done for the second half of the month, you did well calling for +EPO followed by ridging. Looking like the transition to ridging will just be a bit faster than you were expecting, but you had the right progression.

 

Those of us who have been on the cool October bandwagon for awhile (I believe you mostly were too?) will also probably end up correct. Wins all around.

[Front Ranger]

I think most people feel the same.

 

Tim will tell you, this is VERY important.

[Front Ranger]

This is the only place on this forum where regular bickering and arguing occurs, it seems. I frequent the Great Lakes forum and Atlantic coast as well.....very very rare to see bickering on such a personal level there. Are some members here old high school or college enemies or something? Seems like it, lol. 

 

You'll notice it almost always starts by someone taking something personal, and then referencing something from the past.

 

Very predictable pattern, much more than weather. 

[Phil]

Question now is, where do we go after the first week of November??

I think it depends how the MJO cycles once it leaves the toasty WPAC. I'm leaning towards a discontinuous retrogression and Alaskan wavebreak/-EPO for the second week in November, however this process could theoretically be disrupted and/or transition right back into +EPO.

[Phil]

Thanks. Yeah, even though it will end probably up more ridgy than +EPO for the GOA when all is said and done for the second half of the month, you did well calling for +EPO followed by ridging. Looking like the transition to ridging will just be a bit faster than you were expecting, but you had the right progression.

 

Those of us who have been on the cool October bandwagon for awhile (I believe you mostly were too?) will also probably end up correct. Wins all around.

Yeah, I've been leaning cold October/warm November/cold January for awhile, with December and February still questionable. Though I think something potentially significant will happen during mid/late December, following the completion of the poleward AAM propagation.

 

I think I posted about the seasonal signal (cold Oct/Jan, warm

Nov) back in the third week of August. I'm surprised how well it's held given I wasn't really digging into things at the time,

[wx_statman]

You'll notice it almost always starts by someone taking something personal, and then referencing something from the past.

 

Very predictable pattern, much more than weather. 

You remind me of Donald Trump. I never really thought about it before. A little more polished, I’ll give you that.

[TT-SEA]

You remind me of Donald Trump. I never really thought about it before. A little more polished, I’ll give you that.

 

No... he is much more educated and well-spoken and coherent than Trump.    And I also don't see irrational hyperbole and bending the truth and outright lying about data and stats.  

[Front Ranger]

No... he is much more educated and well-spoken and coherent than Trump.    And I also don't see irrational hyperbole and bending the truth and outright lying about data and stats.  

 

I also am not filthy rich (though I'm slowly working on building my own real estate empire), have never been accused of sexually assaulting women or joked about it, have no aspirations to be president, don't think we need to build a wall, and I'm not orange.

 

Other than that - perfect comparison! 

[wx_statman]

No... he is much more educated and well-spoken and coherent than Trump.    And I also don't see irrational hyperbole and bending the truth and outright lying about data and stats.  

More in the sense that he completely disregards other people’s opinions and continues acting like his sh*t don’t stink.

[Front Ranger]

More in the sense that he completely disregards other people’s opinions and continues acting like his sh*t don’t stink.

 

Good lord...

 

This thread isn't about me and whatever petty gripes you want to harp on. Give it a rest. Just because I don't take you as seriously as you take you doesn't mean I completely disregard other people's opinions.

[wx_statman]

Good lord...

 

This thread isn't about me and whatever petty gripes you want to harp on. Give it a rest. Just because I don't take you as seriously as you take you doesn't mean I completely disregard other people's opinions.

You’re deflecting. This isn’t about me. It’s about you.

[snow_wizard]

Yeah, I've been leaning cold October/warm November/cold January for awhile, with December and February still questionable. Though I think something potentially significant will happen during mid/late December, following the completion of the poleward AAM propagation.

 

I think I posted about the seasonal signal (cold Oct/Jan, warm

Nov) back in the third week of August. I'm surprised how well it's held given I wasn't really digging into things at the time,

 

The years I'm looking at give a strong indication of December having some cold / snow, but very possibly just a warning shot.  The progression you are talking about perfectly mirrors seasons like 1949-50 or 1971-72.

[Front Ranger]

You’re deflecting. This isn’t about me. It’s about you.

Again, this thread is not about me, or whatever point you're trying so hard to prove.

 

If this isn't making things unnecessarily personal, I'm not sure what is. Some might say that's a Trump-like quality.

[snow_wizard]

I also am not filthy rich (though I'm slowly working on building my own real estate empire), have never been accused of sexually assaulting women or joked about it, have no aspirations to be president, don't think we need to build a wall, and I'm not orange.

 

Other than that - perfect comparison! 

 

It appears he got the message about the orange.  It doesn't seem to be the case any longer.  We DO need a wall, but that's not here nor here.

[snow_wizard]

46 degrees AT 3PM.  Pretty nippy for this time of year.  Certainly been a chilly October for the first 2/3.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Chilly AR event for sure. Low 50s here near Salem in the warm sector. Front is now a bit north of here but the cold front will swing through later for another 18 hours of steady rain later this evening.

[snow_wizard]

Looking at the web cams the Passes picked up another nice snowfall today.  Too bad the clipper got messed up.  Things are fine over the Pacific, but the Eastern trough becomes too deep to allow the clipper to dig in here.  We might see an improving trend on that in the home stretch, but it won't likely be much.

 

Looking at the 500mb composites it is remarkable what a dead ringer the first 20 days of this month have been to October 1949.  The composite for the final third of October 1949. is also a dead ringer to what the latest models are showing here.  1966 has also been brought up and the 500mb anoms were much less impressive and flatter that year.  Not likely we will see a 1949-50 redux, but the progression and tendencies could be similar.

[TT-SEA]

Looking at the web cams the Passes picked up another nice snowfall today.  Too bad the clipper got messed up.  Things are fine over the Pacific, but the Eastern trough becomes too deep to allow the clipper to dig in here.  We might see an improving trend on that in the home stretch, but it won't likely be much.

 

Looking at the 500mb composites it is remarkable what a dead ringer the first 20 days of this month have been to October 1949.  The composite for the final third of October 1949. is also a dead ringer to what the latest models are showing here.  1966 has also been brought up and the 500mb anoms were much less impressive and flatter that year.  Not likely we will see a 1949-50 redux, but the progression and tendencies could be similar.

 

My son just texted me this picture of his car up at Snoqualmie Pass... he is up there with his friends playing in the snow.

 

[Deweydog]

Seems like it's been raining for hours!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Seems like it's been raining for hours!

Only since Midnight here

[Front Ranger]

The model ensembles are pretty clearly showing a signal for -EPO/GOA ridging for the last week of October into the first week of November. Looking at other -ENSO years that had a similar pattern during this period, we have 1949, 1954, 1962, 1966, 1989, 1995, 1996, and 2013.

 

The overwhelming signal is that this type of pattern precedes a warm November for the West, and a cool one for the East.

 

 

 

[wx_statman]

Daily record of 1.10" from 1951 should fall soon at PDX. Up to 0.94" at 4pm.

[TT-SEA]

Rain on 12 of the last 15 days... over 8 inches on the month.    I am slightly less concerned about the drought and wildfires.   Still a major worry but its a tiny bit better now.   

 

Raining hard now.  

[Timmy]

Rain on 12 of the last 15 days... over 8 inches on the month. I am slightly less concerned about the drought and wildfires. Still a major worry but its a tiny bit better now.

 

Raining hard now.

Raining here too

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Rain on 12 of the last 15 days... over 8 inches on the month.    I am slightly less concerned about the drought and wildfires.   Still a major worry but its a tiny bit better now.   

 

Raining hard now.  

 

Don't let your guard down, there was a tree fire reported in Stanley Park this past week (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/tree-fire-in-stanley-park-still-smouldering-24-hours-later-1.4363795). The ridge forecast for the upcoming week looks pretty menacing.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1.25" in the gauge since midnight. Impressive and likely close to a record for the central Willamette Valley for the date. Will have to check.

[TT-SEA]

Don't let your guard down, there was a tree fire reported in Stanley Park this past week (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/tree-fire-in-stanley-park-still-smouldering-24-hours-later-1.4363795). The ridge forecast for the upcoming week looks pretty menacing.

 

Never let your guard down.   We take shifts on the nightly fire watches... I told my sons to avoid driving through deep water tonight and flooded roads while on the look out for forest fires.  The wind later tonight is also a big concern... fires spread fast in that type of wind.

[snow_wizard]

Don't let your guard down, there was a tree fire reported in Stanley Park this past week (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/tree-fire-in-stanley-park-still-smouldering-24-hours-later-1.4363795). The ridge forecast for the upcoming week looks pretty menacing.

 

A tree fire.  Did someone have a gasoline truck they doused it with first?

[snow_wizard]

It is raining like mofo here and the radar is saturated as far as it can see.

[snow_wizard]

The NWS has clear with chilly nights and warmish days the second half of next week.  Sounds about right.