October 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[ShawniganLake]

18Z GEM screws everything up by bringing low pressure to the NE pacific.

 

Edit: But the 12Z CMC ensembles doesn't have this. We'll have to see the 00Z CMC ensembles.

There’s an 18Z GEM?

[ShawniganLake]

I love it!

Is there a point where you want to see the pattern relax a bit and warmth to take over in November?

[stuffradio]

There’s an 18Z GEM?

I meant 12Z.

[Jesse]

Yeah, been really nice this past week in the Portland region.

Yeah, probably the best foliage display overall since 2013 down here.

[Jesse]

Looks like PDX had a difficult time breaking out of the inversion today. Will be interesting to see how tomorrow goes.

[Deweydog]

70.

[Jesse]

70.

 

68.

[Deweydog]

68.

66.

[Jesse]

There really should be a late October heatwave contest for this whole week.

[stuffradio]

There really should be a late October heatwave contest for this whole week.

90 imminent?

[ShawniganLake]

0z Backdoor action.

[snow_wizard]

Just amazing blocking on the 0z GFS.  The Pacific is totally shut down for the next two weeks.  That is a really crazy retrogression a little ways down the road.

[snow_wizard]

There really should be a late October heatwave contest for this whole week.

 

Way overstated IMO.  The clipper still drops the 850s pretty sharply and there will be chilly nights in many places.  Even if it does get as warm as you think we're in really good company historically speaking.

[Deweydog]

Just amazing blocking on the 0z GFS. The Pacific is totally shut down for the next two weeks. That is a really crazy retrogression a little ways down the road.

Nice to get it out of the way now.

[TT-SEA]

Exactly, so that way we won't get any arctic blasts this winter. Good thinking.

 

That is your first post ever?   Meet Matt (Deweydog).  He has a way of making his points with a sarcastic wit that we all love.  He does his best to keep us in line.

 

Did you really mean to use 'La Nina' as a user name?   'El nina' is not a thing.  

[Deweydog]

That is your first post ever? Meet Matt (Deweydog). He has a way of making his points with a sarcastic wit that we all love. He does his best to keep us in line.

 

Did you really mean to use 'La Nina' as a user name? 'El nina' is not a thing.

My high school Spanish teacher would not be pleased.

[TT-SEA]

My high school Spanish teacher would not be pleased.

 

Well... not in the weather world.

[TT-SEA]

I have noticed his humor since I've been reading this forum for about a year now. And my name was intentionally made el niña so it could be interchangeable.

 

 

Ahhhh... very good.   Welcome!  

[Deweydog]

Well... not in the weather world.

Everyone knows ninas are feminine and ninos are masculine.

 

#weathermysogyny

#oppressivegenderidentity

[Front Ranger]

I have noticed his humor since I've been reading this forum for about a year now. And my name was intentionally made el niña so it could be interchangeable.

 

Transgender weather phenomena are welcome here.

[snow_wizard]

Nice to get it out of the way now.

 

This is actually the part of the year that often sets the tone for the winter.  We're going to get nailed this time.  Take it to the bank.

[snow_wizard]

Friday night / Saturday looks excellent for an inversion.  Very weak offshore gradients when dry air will be in place from the recent clipper.  Should be a good chance of frost in many areas and then very weak gradients allow the cold air to sit over us on Saturday.  Right after that the surface gradients take on an Arctic outbreak look and much lower 850s get ushered in.  Looks like a series of cool continental surface highs dropping down over the next 10 days.  The one in very early November could be interesting.

[Front Ranger]

This is actually the part of the year that often sets the tone for the winter.  We're going to get nailed this time.  Take it to the bank.

 

I agree that there are a lot of good signs. But such certainty invites the wrath of the weather gods. 

[epiceast]

I enjoyed watching the guy with 2 posts troll Tim tonight. I wonder if he has an old handle on here?

[Deweydog]

This is actually the part of the year that often sets the tone for the winter. We're going to get nailed this time. Take it to the bank.

I'm starting to wonder if this might be a return to the days of ol' when we have to wait for your meltdown before things kick into gear and you refreeze. The November stuff probably isn't gonna be a show stopper.

[TT-SEA]

Friday night / Saturday looks excellent for an inversion.  Very weak offshore gradients when dry air will be in place from the recent clipper.  Should be a good chance of frost in many areas and then very weak gradients allow the cold air to sit over us on Saturday.  Right after that the surface gradients take on an Arctic outbreak look and much lower 850s get ushered in.  Looks like a series of cool continental surface highs dropping down over the next 10 days.  The one in very early November could be interesting.

 

12Z ECMWF showed the marine layer locking in on Sunday and not breaking up until later Tuesday.

[Jesse]

Some fall colors along the Molalla River this afternoon:

 

 

 

[Phil]

This is actually the part of the year that often sets the tone for the winter. We're going to get nailed this time. Take it to the bank.

Now watch a death ridge park over your house for the next four months.

[Deweydog]

Now watch a death ridge park over your house for the next four months.

Fake cold evokes fake happiness!

[Phil]

Fake cold evokes fake happiness!

#January2013

[Jesse]

Then in the Table Rock Wilderness Area:

 

 

 

[stuffradio]

Fake cold evokes fake happiness!

First we must define what fake cold even is!

[Deweydog]

First we must define what fake cold even is!

Cold reported by CNN.

[Jesse]

First we must define what fake cold even is!

It’s all fake cold if you really think about it.

[stuffradio]

Cold reported by CNN.

No, you're thinking about alt Cold. Get with the times!

[Deweydog]

No, you're thinking about alt Cold. Get with the times!

Alt cold is February 1989 kind of stuff. Mows you down like a Dodge Charger in a crowd of hippies.

[TT-SEA]

It’s all fake cold if you really think about it.

 

 

The universe is a very cold place.    

[Deweydog]

Not entirely sure, but this might be the strongest ridge we've seen since July 2006.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A week ago when I left the leaves were just turning. Now a week later we're on the back side of peak foliage already. It was quick and it was vibrant. Should be a spectacular week/week and a half. 

[wx_statman]

83 in Brookings and 105 down in Long Beach today. First reading above 101 this late in the season for the LBC.