TT-SEA Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 Too much east wind out here today near west Gresham so I could only manage a wimpy 67 degrees. Amazing late October weather! This gorgeous day was brought to you by a much dreaded and horrific 594DM ridge that was maligned by some on here as being very disappointing and disgusting. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 This gorgeous day was brought to you by a much dreaded and horrific 594DM ridge that was maligned by some on here as being very disappointing and disgusting. I don’t remember anyone saying that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 Thanks. It's getting to be that time of year, so I'm sure I'll pop in at times. I haven't been here in so long I honestly wasn't even sure if the forum was still around.Welcome back Rob. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 21.0C over SLE this afternoon. Incredible for this time of year. 598 heights this morning over both MFR and RNO. I noticed Buckeye RAWS @ 2,264' in the S. Cascades hit 82 today without any downslope assist. http://gl1.chpc.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=PKFO3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 I don’t remember anyone saying that. Winky. I exaggerated for dramatic effect. You certainly did not want this ridge though... and by extension the stunning weather it has delivered after almost a week of rain and wind. Nice break to get out and enjoy the fall colors. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 21.0C over SLE this afternoon. Incredible for this time of year. 598 heights this morning over both MFR and RNO. I noticed Buckeye RAWS @ 2,264' in the S. Cascades hit 82 today without any downslope assist. http://gl1.chpc.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=PKFO3 Have to give credit to the GEM which all of last week showed a 600DM ridge and we all thought it was completely out to lunch. An almost 600DM ridge in late October is actually downright gorgeous at the surface though. It would have been pretty miserable 6 weeks ago. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 Winky. I exaggerated for dramatic effect. You certainly did not want this ridge though... and by extension the stunning weather it has delivered after almost a week of rain and wind. Nice break to get out enjoy the fall colors.There is no point to what you are doing right now. It really doesn’t matter, and just makes you look like a goon. And the ridge was a given. I was hoping for a stronger clipper to follow, in which case we would have kept the sunshine but ended up with cooler temperatures and frosty mornings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 21.0C over SLE this afternoon. Incredible for this time of year. 598 heights this morning over both MFR and RNO. I noticed Buckeye RAWS @ 2,264' in the S. Cascades hit 82 today without any downslope assist. http://gl1.chpc.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=PKFO3 Kinda makes you wonder how some of the numbers with 1949, 1929, 1987, etc were achieved. I'm guessing more southerly flow? Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 Have to give credit to the GEM which all of last week showed a 600DM ridge and we all thought it was completely out to lunch. An almost 600DM ridge in late October is actually downright gorgeous at the surface though. It would have been pretty miserable 6 weeks ago. Today was perfect. Couldn't ask for a nicer day anytime of the year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 Just a tad of similarity between this year and 1949 for the first 22 days of October over the NE Pacific and GOA. Then of course 1949 had a big ridge the final 5 days of the month. Very good match! 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 Have to give credit to the GEM which all of last week showed a 600DM ridge and we all thought it was completely out to lunch. An almost 600DM ridge in late October is actually downright gorgeous at the surface though. It would have been pretty miserable 6 weeks ago. I tried to give the GEM credit a couple days ago and was told not to. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 Kinda makes you wonder how some of the numbers with 1949, 1929, 1987, etc were achieved. I'm guessing more southerly flow? I'm not the best person to ask that. I believe 1949 was entirely offshore flow driven, like 2010. Nov 1929 as well judging by the 88 in Brookings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 Fall colors really popping at the WSU Salmon Creek campus this afternoon. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 Also 78 at TMK today. Their COOP has only seen one higher reading this late, the 80 on 11/1/1962. Seaside had a monthly record of 79 on that day as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 There is no point to what you are doing right now. It really doesn’t matter, and just makes you look like a goon. And the ridge was a given. I was hoping for a stronger clipper to follow, which in which case we would have kept the sunshine but ended up with cooler temperatures and frosty mornings. I'm still thinking frost for Friday night when the gradients die. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 Also 78 at TMK today. Their COOP has only seen one higher reading this late, the 80 on 11/1/1962. Seaside had a monthly record of 79 on that day as well.That year seems to keep coming up as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 I'm not the best person to ask that. I believe 1949 was entirely offshore flow driven, like 2010. Nov 1929 as well judging by the 88 in Brookings. I actually meant the event right around this time in October 1929 when SLE and Corvallis both hit 83. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 I'm still thinking frost for Friday night when the gradients die. Air mass seems too warm. ECMWF shows mid 40s for most of the area on Friday night and even some upper 50s to around 60 near the foothills for lows on Saturday morning. Then the marine layer locks in on Saturday night and stays through Halloween. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 I actually meant the event right around this time in October 1929 when SLE and Corvallis both hit 83. That's right, there was a biggie about 10 days prior. Looks like that one was offshore flow driven as well, judging by the 30.51" pressure in Baker City on the 22nd. I just checked the monthy climo report for Oct 1929 and that was listed as the highest pressure in the state that month. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 That year seems to keep coming up as well. Yeah, we were just talking about the similarity of this pattern to 1962 a few days ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 That year seems to keep coming up as well. Kind of interesting looking at the years being talked about here...1929, 1949, 1962. All were followed by very cold Januaries. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 Air mass seems too warm. ECMWF shows mid 40s for most of the area on Friday night and even some upper 50s to around 60 near the foothills for lows on Saturday morning. Then the marine layer locks in on Saturday night and stays through Halloween. We'll see. It will be interesting to see how dry of air gets brought in after the clipper. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 Kind of interesting looking at the years being talked about here...1929, 1949, 1962. All were followed by very cold Januaries.Definitely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 It's interesting that both 1929 and 1949 reeled off massive compressional heating events in late Oct/early Nov. The following January's were worthwhile. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 Kind of interesting looking at the years being talked about here...1929, 1949, 1962. All were followed by very cold Januaries. Was thinking the same thing at about the same time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 It's interesting that both 1929 and 1949 reeled off massive compressional heating events in late Oct/early Nov. The following January's were worthwhile.It would be interesting to look at a January composite for all the years where PDX had 585+ heights between 10/20 and 11/5. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 Welcome back! Thanks! Welcome back Rob.Thank you, Jesse. 21.0C over SLE this afternoon. Incredible for this time of year. 598 heights this morning over both MFR and RNO. I noticed Buckeye RAWS @ 2,264' in the S. Cascades hit 82 today without any downslope assist. http://gl1.chpc.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=PKFO3That's incredible. Good thing we didn't have a ridge this robust in late July with thermal trough support over western Oregon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 It's interesting that both 1929 and 1949 reeled off massive compressional heating events in late Oct/early Nov. The following January's were worthwhile. I would say both of those Januaries qualify as insane. The cold was brutal with both. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 It would be interesting to look at a January composite for all the years where PDX has 585+ heights between 10/20 and 11/5. I wish the CPC site where you make the composite maps had a feature to find analogs to a given pattern. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 I wish the CPC site where you make the composite maps had a feature to find analogs to a given pattern.Stormvista does. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 It looks like 1929 had the mean ridging position for 10/20 - 11/5 in a fairly similar spot to what we're seeing. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 It's interesting how the mean ridge position seemed to drift west as we approached the 1949-50 cold season. There was a historic heat wave in July in the east (98 in Burlington VT), another historic heat wave centered on WY/MT around August 7th, then two huge ridges over the PNW (late Sep with 91 at PDX, followed by late Oct/early Nov), and then over AK/GOA in January resulting in we-all-know-what around here. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 I would say both of those Januaries qualify as insane. The cold was brutal with both. #1 and #2 coldest for some places here in the valley. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 I feel good about this winter... no doubt. But to assume things will progress the same as they did 80 years ago or 60 years ago might be a little foolhardy. Or so I am told each spring with analogs. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 Stormvista does. Is that a pay site? Do you mean you can enter a date and will spit out all of the years that had a similar pattern? Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 It would be interesting to look at a January composite for all the years where PDX had 585+ heights between 10/20 and 11/5. Several days ago I made a post about all -ENSO years that featured a similar ridge pattern to what we're seeing now, in late October - early November. The years were 1949, 1954, 1962, 1966, 1989, 1995, 1996, and 2013. Not sure what 1929 was ENSO-wise? Here's the composite without 1929 for the following Januaries. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 I feel good about this winter... no doubt. But to assume things will progress the same as they did 80 years ago or 60 years ago might be a little foolhardy. Or so I am told each spring with analogs. And I am quite sure you are looking forward to the inevitably wet Spring of 2018. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 Several days ago I made a post about all -ENSO years that featured a similar ridge pattern to what we're seeing now, in late October - early November. The years were 1949, 1954, 1962, 1966, 1989, 1995, 1996, and 2013. Not sure what 1929 was ENSO-wise? Here's the composite without 1929 for the following Januaries. cd75.166.85.240.296.21.27.45.prcp.png Wow, that is an amazing set of years for out here as well. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 And I am quite sure you are looking forward to the inevitably wet Spring of 2018. Planning ahead now! I know its very likely coming again. They tend to come in bunches. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 Wow, that is an amazing set of years for out here as well. It's nice overall, but of course also includes years like 1966...which was pretty much a nation-wide torch in January. Can't throw away that analog, unfortunately. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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