December 2017 Observations and Discussions

[Tom]

I'm leaving for California from 12/20-12/28, so there will be a big storm here then.

Doh!  I got a feeling your right man.  Something tells me the same thing.  Where are you heading specifically? SoCal again?

[Minny_Weather]

Doh! I got a feeling your right man. Something tells me the same thing. Where are you heading specifically? SoCal again?

Yup, Riverside and Altadena to be specific. I have a ton of family down there. The idea of a white Christmas in Riverside is snowcapped mountains! I hope it's not in the 80s on Christmas like it has been recently. It was 90 on Thanksgiving!

[Tom]

Yup, Riverside and Altadena to be specific. I have a ton of family down there. The idea of a white Christmas in Riverside is snowcapped mountains! I hope it's not in the 80s on Christmas like it has been recently. It was 90 on Thanksgiving!

Hey, at least you can enjoy some warmer weather and soak up some of that Cali sunshine.  I doubt there will be any snow caped mountains while your out there.

 

Yesterday's storm laid down the snow up north which isn't a bad thing overall going forward.  Need that snow pack to ensure the cold has staying power.

 

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/National/nsm_depth/201712/nsm_depth_2017120505_National.jpg

[NEJeremy]

[Snowlover76]

[Tom]

BTW I’m not laughing at you Tom. I’m laughing at the models that keep showing the good stuff 2 weeks away and how many times you’ve had to say this same thing already.

All I'm trying to do is provide something of value for you guys farther west than us out east.  Unlike the Plains folks, we will be stuck in a winter-like pattern over the foreseeable future and ya'll will be riding the thermal gradient.

[Snowlover76]

Riding the thermal gradient is a nice way of saying good luck

[westMJim]

Yesterday’s official high was 61° while not a record high it is good for 3^rd place with only 2012 at 65° and 63° in 1941 being warmer. Last night’s thunderstorm only dropped 0.7” of rain here, of course we don’t see too many December thunderstorms around here. Right now, here at my house I have a temperature of 39° that same reading is being reported at the airport.  The winds are out of the SW at around 20MPH with some gust of around 35 MPH  Not sure how much in the way of snow we will see in the next several days at this time my guess is around 2” in the Grand Rapids metro area but as you know depending on how (and if) this snow bands set up it can be a lot more or a lot less.

[westMJim]

Climatology for today December 5^th      At Grand Rapids, MI  

 

The average H/L 38/27 (30 year ave) 38.2/26.0 (120 year ave)

The record high for today is 69° 2001 69° is also the record high for December the lowest Maximum high is 21° set in 2008

The record low is +4° set in 1964 and the warmest minimum is 54° set in 2001’

The most precip was 1.23” in 1999

The most snow fall was 7.7” in 1991 the most on the ground at 7 AM was 10” in 1940

Last year the H/L was 39/28  there was a trace of snow fall and at 7 AM there was 4” on the ground.

[Andrew NE]

Just watched Gary's morning video: Take away is not good if you like snow.  That ridge in the west is just the worst.  I had high hopes to start this winter off with a bang, all indications were there.  And then reality hit.  Time will tell.

[Niko]

I'm under a wind advisory w howling winds.

[Niko]

Looks like a few snowshowers this weekend and into next week. Will keep a close eye on that though. Temps in the 20s for high and teens for lows.

[Niko]

BTW I’m not laughing at you Tom. I’m laughing at the models that keep showing the good stuff 2 weeks away and how many times you’ve had to say this same thing already.

  I agree.

[Niko]

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GEFS/2017120506/NE/GEFSNE_prec_meansnacc_120.png

[westMJim]

Here are some wind reports from around west Michigan.

 

As of early Tuesday, wind gusts reached 55 mph at Pentwater, 53 mph at Shelby, 49 mph at Saugatuck, 48 mph at Fremont and Ludington, 46 mph at Muskegon, 45 mph at Battle Creek and 42 mph at Jamestown.  Small hail was reported in Marne.  As of 1:30 am, Consumers Energy reports 84 power outages with 9,807 customers with out power.  M-104 east of Spring Lake was closed because of debris on the road.

[Clinton]

Just watched Gary's morning video: Take away is not good if you like snow.  That ridge in the west is just the worst.  I had high hopes to start this winter off with a bang, all indications were there.  And then reality hit.  Time will tell.

 

Gary seems to be so confused just last week he was telling his bloggers that we were getting ready to enter a 17 day stormy period starting this week.  Now he is telling us that it has passed us by and we are headed to the Nov part of the pattern.  Tom hit on some good points yesterday, to me this looks like early Oct not late Oct.

[NEJeremy]

Latest thoughts from the CPC. Looks like you can really see the NW flow continuing with the cold to the northeast and warm to west. Also clippers bringing above normal precip to the northern US and the snowbelts off of the GL's. Zzzzzzz....

[Niko]

Latest thoughts from the CPC. Looks like you can really see the NW flow continuing with the cold to the northeast and warm to west. Also clippers bringing above normal precip to the northern US and the snowbelts off of the GL's. Zzzzzzz....

Very persistant flow, I must say.

[Andrew NE]

Gary seems to be so confused just last week he was telling his bloggers that we were getting ready to enter a 17 day stormy period starting this week.  Now he is telling us that it has passed us by and we are headed to the Nov part of the pattern.  Tom hit on some good points yesterday, to me this looks like early Oct not late Oct.

 

You are correct, listening to him it seems that even he is a bit confused of what is going on from what he previously had stated.  In next couple weeks is when he really dials in exact cycle lengths, but something seems different this year.  He wont be the one to admit it, but he has over stated numerous scenario's from mid November to now that hasn't even been close.  I will admit though I am so confused with the cycle length and then the harmonic cycles in between.

[OKwx2k4]

You are correct, listening to him it seems that even he is a bit confused of what is going on from what he previously had stated. In next couple weeks is when he really dials in exact cycle lengths, but something seems different this year. He wont be the one to admit it, but he has over stated numerous scenario's from mid November to now that hasn't even been close. I will admit though I am so confused with the cycle length and then the harmonic cycles in between.

Go through his blogs. I don't subscribe any longer or I would. Last year I asked him about a few specific years bearing no pattern at all. I believe those years were analogous to this one. They were 2010, 1983 and 1978 if im not mistaken. He basically dodged it and said that the LRC verifies in those years also. I believe there's a lot to what he's doing but he could do a better job of figuring out the pattern.

 

Meanwhile...33 and first snowflakes of 2017-18 floating by right now. Here's to many many more.

[Clinton]

Go through his blogs. I don't subscribe any longer or I would. Last year I asked him about a few specific years bearing no pattern at all. I believe those years were analogous to this one. They were 2010, 1983 and 1978 if im not mistaken. He basically dodged it and said that the LRC verifies in those years also. I believe there's a lot to what he's doing but he could do a better job of figuring out the pattern.

 

Meanwhile...33 and first snowflakes of 2017-18 floating by right now. Here's to many many more.

 

Read his blogs and comments from last week.  He even went as far as to predict a 1-5in snow in KC for the 15th of Dec, and how the GFS model at the time fit the LRC.  I cant rule out that this pattern is so weak, dry, and disorganized that he may be right.  Just seems strange.

[OKwx2k4]

If I had to put a personal length on a cycle, it's more like 60-62 days.

[OKwx2k4]

Read his blogs and comments from last week. He even went as far as to predict a 1-5in snow in KC for the 15th of Dec, and how the GFS model at the time fit the LRC. I cant rule out that this pattern is so weak, dry, and disorganized that he may be right. Just seems strange.

It does. I think there are some years that don't fit in a normal box. This is one of them. It was supposed to be last year but we got double QBO'd and screwed everything up. Watch MJO, ENSO, and teleconnections incredibly closely.

[Tom]

Gary seems to be so confused just last week he was telling his bloggers that we were getting ready to enter a 17 day stormy period starting this week.  Now he is telling us that it has passed us by and we are headed to the Nov part of the pattern.  Tom hit on some good points yesterday, to me this looks like early Oct not late Oct.

 

You are correct, listening to him it seems that even he is a bit confused of what is going on from what he previously had stated.  In next couple weeks is when he really dials in exact cycle lengths, but something seems different this year.  He wont be the one to admit it, but he has over stated numerous scenario's from mid November to now that hasn't even been close.  I will admit though I am so confused with the cycle length and then the harmonic cycles in between.

My gut feels like he will re-evaluate the cycle length in mid December some time.  The fact that he uses the late Oct GL's storm as a comparison to yesterday's storm does not jive with me.  That southern energy in the late Oct storm should have been there in early December and NOT so far north as he suggested.  That's like saying the jet is weakening as we head deeper into the winter months and it shifted north.  I'm kinda scratching my head with that comparison.  We'll see what he suggests later down the road.

[Tom]

Go through his blogs. I don't subscribe any longer or I would. Last year I asked him about a few specific years bearing no pattern at all. I believe those years were analogous to this one. They were 2010, 1983 and 1978 if im not mistaken. He basically dodged it and said that the LRC verifies in those years also. I believe there's a lot to what he's doing but he could do a better job of figuring out the pattern.

 

Meanwhile...33 and first snowflakes of 2017-18 floating by right now. Here's to many many more.

I week later to the date with my 11/28 prediction.  Congrats buddy.  I'm thinking 2nd half of December will be better down there for ya.

[Tom]

If I had to put a personal length on a cycle, it's more like 60-62 days.

Yup, my thinking is 58-61 days so around the ball park of what your thinking.

[james1976]

Long range GFS is active but idk if i buy it.

[NEJeremy]

Long range GFS is active but idk if i buy it.

I hope my snowblower can handle the .3" of snow forecasted here on that run

[jaster220]

Long range GFS is active but idk if i buy it.

 

Look at that wks 3-4 map posted earlier. Nobody in our sub gets much moisture, lol. Could be wrong, but that map is like the opposite of what the monthly map for this area was looking like not long ago. 

[Niko]

I hope my snowblower can handle the .3" of snow forecasted here on that run

[Niko]

Look at that wks 3-4 map posted earlier. Nobody in our sub gets much moisture, lol. Could be wrong, but that map is like the opposite of what the monthly map for this area was looking like not long ago. 

This abrupt change is a little head scratching.

[BrianJK]

BTW I’m not laughing at you Tom. I’m laughing at the models that keep showing the good stuff 2 weeks away and how many times you’ve had to say this same thing already.

 

 

  I agree.

 

Bingo

 

And furthermore, go back to the last 2 years November/December months on this forum.  Always encouraging signs for winter which never materialized.

[hlcater]

Bingo

 

And furthermore, go back to the last 2 years November/December months on this forum.  Always encouraging signs for winter which never materialized.

Such is the nature of long range forecasting. I personally have decided I largely don't believe in anything outside of 10 days away, unless the signs are overwhelming. Not hating on Tom or anyone else here, but at this range, I've noticed many people ignore potentially bad signs and instead favor positive signatures, when in reality, both need to be accounted for equally, otherwise any "forecast" you make will relegate itself to nothing more than wishcasting. Again, not hating on anyone here, it's just something I've noticed about a lot of enthusiasts and mets as a whole.

[Niko]

Bingo

 

And furthermore, go back to the last 2 years November/December months on this forum.  Always encouraging signs for winter which never materialized.

Agree 100%.

[OKwx2k4]

Such is the nature of long range forecasting. I personally have decided I largely don't believe in anything outside of 10 days away, unless the signs are overwhelming. Not hating on Tom or anyone else here, but at this range, I've noticed many people ignore potentially bad signs and instead favor positive signatures, when in reality, both need to be accounted for equally, otherwise any "forecast" you make will relegate itself to nothing more than wishcasting. Again, not hating on anyone here, it's just something I've noticed about a lot of enthusiasts and mets as a whole.

I can handle intelligent and direct criticism. Thank you.

 

I try to rush good things or am overly quiet when only boring or bad things are going on. This is a bias I have. I'm trying to improve on it. My other character flaw here is seeing where the pattern should go and then trying to rush it. Again, this probably looks a lot like wishcasting but its not. In the future I will try to do a better job laying out point/counterpoint when discussing things deemed long range.

[OKwx2k4]

I week later to the date with my 11/28 prediction. Congrats buddy. I'm thinking 2nd half of December will be better down there for ya.

There are all the hallmarks of retrogression down the road. Given all the flak, going to stay vague there but still firmly believe that this pattern retrogrades back to a central trough over the course of the next 30 days. It's just going to take 10 days to get started.

[OKwx2k4]

For fun

[Niko]

Its a windy, cloudy day w temps slowly falling into the 30s as the colder air arrives.

[Tom]

[Snowlover76]

What an awful pattern taking shape.

 

 

Can't get a break...