December 2017 Observations and Discussions

[OKwx2k4]

I think California should be a topic to discuss. Think about all of the destruction from these fires. We think that SW Ridge sucks here, just look what it's doing to those areas that are centered right under it. It would benefit the whole country if that ridge would just GTFO.

SoCal should get rain before the winter is over. NorCal and the southern PNW will probably stay pretty dry though through next summer. Just an opinion. That's getting pretty far down the road though. FWIW, don't really NEED or see a strong SER coming either. Maybe weak long term SER and a warm NAO block retrograding to the NE US. I think parts of Tennessee and western NC probably don't need the dryness they'll see after the pattern transition in JFM.

[OKwx2k4]

I know that this is a selfish post but if I'm right, the last 15 days of this month look amazing for me. I'm nearly 90 percent sure of it now. From the 15th-January 5th should be really something. Seeing the evidence of the retrogression at the long term trough base being pulled out to the west/sw.

[OKwx2k4]

Been waiting to see this for over 30 days now. You want moisture to return, this is where it starts.

I'll post in the ENSO thread too but this is why I keep insisting on patience.

[Minny_Weather]

It is looking like the ridge could finally start the process of pissing off around Christmas. Obviously that doesn't guarantee good snow, but it's a stepping stone.

[Thunder98]

We need the rain and snow in Caliofrnia. It has been super dry and warm this entire fall and so far again this December. When will this ridge go away. 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif

[jaster220]

We will be lucky to see more than 6" this winter. It's over man. Now we just have to suffer for another 4 months.

  

Snowing

These two posts in almost the same breath, LOL! You Neb peeps can be such a crack-up, without even trying.

[Minny_Weather]

  

These two posts in almost the same breath, LOL! You Neb peeps can be such a crack-up, without even trying.

It was a trace so 6" is still a possibility.

[jaster220]

It was a trace so 6" is still a possibility.

Ofc it is, but dude's like "it's over man, we're getting shut-out with this crap pattern-again!"

 

..next post a few minutes later.."snowing"

 

 

Am I the only one who found that a bit humorous?

[NEJeremy]

looks like Atlanta GA is going to get an inch of snow before we do here in Omaha

[Niko]

looks like Atlanta GA is going to get an inch of snow before we do here in Omaha

Insane!

[Niko]

Currently @ 32F w mostly cloudy skies. Some LES may reach my area by dawn.

[Niko]

We need the rain and snow in Caliofrnia. It has been super dry and warm this entire fall and so far again this December. When will this ridge go away. 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif

Unfortunately, not for awhile. Its going to stay put for the time being.

[gabel23]

Sad that flurries get us this excited

I hear ya; but I'll tell you one thing it got me and my students excited to see it. These kids have no idea what a good winter is.........I have experienced probably 5 harsh winters in my lifetime that I can remember. And the last one was 7 years ago; you would have to think this would become the norm one of these winters.......

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Was some convective snow  / sleet showers with a  10 degree drop in an hour earlier today, pretty crazy.

 

But as I watch the long range, the western troughs continue to vanish as we get closer as whats happened for the last month. Im telling everyone here its not looking good, and being unrealistically positive is not the way to go here lol. The fact of the matter is, for big storm systems its not looking good.

[Niko]

Winds have finally started to subside a bit, but still a bit gusty from time to time.

[james1976]

Ofc it is, but dude's like "it's over man, we're getting shut-out with this crap pattern-again!"

 

..next post a few minutes later.."snowing"

 

 

Am I the only one who found that a bit humorous?

Everything Snowlover posts is humorous.

[james1976]

Lt snow/flurries here the past few hours. Ground is white with 0.10". First measurable snow! Isnt much but it was unexpected! Temp is also down to 17!

[GDR]

Local weather guy putting a white Christmas at about 20 % and fading fast. Says the horrible ridge is here to stay for a while.

[Grizzcoat]

From DMX morning disco-

 

Another vigorous short wave will drop southeast into Montana on
Sunday and this will push warmer temperatures into Iowa. Current
forecast highs for Sunday are in the upper 30s to upper 40s but may
very well exceed these highs with westerly winds and good mixing
through the day. The warm up will be short lived as the short wave
passes through the state Sunday night and brings another wave of
cold advection. High temperatures on Monday likely to be early as
the cold advection arrives. Light snow will be possible during the
day in addition to another round of gusty northwest winds. Yet
another strong short wave is expected in the Tuesday night/Wednesday
period with the next chance for light snow. The entire week next
week from Monday and just beyond the forecast period will feature
these fast moving/strong systems. Suspect at least one of these
systems is being under forecast by model guidance and will be a
bigger winter weather impact than currently forecast somewhere
across the Upper Midwest. Trends have continued to push the Monday
system further west and the Tuesday night/Wednesday system still has
a lot of noise within the ensemble forecasts, making each of these
candidates to be stronger than currently forecast.

 

Oh Boy!!!  Hard to not have a bigger winter weather impact then currently forecast (which is none) when you haven't had any to begin with. But man I still got "Hope"!! 

 

 

[Tom]

@Jaster/WestMJim, you guys getting any snow this morning??  Looks like this wave coming through is enhancing the LES on radar this morning.

[jaster220]

@Jaster/WestMJim, you guys getting any snow this morning??  Looks like this wave coming through is enhancing the LES on radar this morning.

 

Well, depends Tom. I left Marshall about 5:20 and we'd only gotten a dusting at that point and it was hardly snowing. Then I get to work and see GRR's upgraded mby to be included in the WWA. I'll say the further west I drove the more snow was falling. By the time I hit western Kzoo county it had become what I term impactful. At 23º the LES is so dry and fluffy it just blows off the x-way, but enough was getting caught under traffic to make the slow lane "dicey". There was perhaps an inch down in the peak zone in Van Buren county. But, unlike last December the squalls are falling right to the coast and with the winds here in St. Joseph it's a raw nasty winter morning so far with on/off moderate snow and winds of 25+ mph. #WINTER! 

[Tom]

Well, depends Tom. I left Marshall about 5:20 and we'd only gotten a dusting at that point and it was hardly snowing. Then I get to work and see GRR's upgraded mby to be included in the WWA. I'll say the further west I drove the more snow was falling. By the time I hit western Kzoo county it had become what I term impactful. At 23º the LES is so dry and fluffy it just blows off the x-way, but enough was getting caught under traffic to make the slow lane "dicey". There was perhaps an inch down in the peak zone in Van Buren county. But, unlike last December the squalls are falling right to the coast and with the winds here in St. Joseph it's a raw nasty winter morning so far with on/off moderate snow and winds of 25+ mph. #WINTER! 

Love hearing the positive feedback!  Roads are terrible here to from just a minor dusting and no residual chemicals on the roadways.  Looking forward to seeing the flakes fly tomorrow night.  All the models are spitting out some major qpf totals for SW MI over the course of the next week.  Someone is going to have some lolipop totals.  I'm sure you'll cash in pretty good.

[Tom]

00z Euro over the next 7 days....

 

[Snowlover76]

00z Euro over the next 7 days....

 

Ugly for out here

[Tom]

00z GEFS next 10 days....primarily focusing the snows across the Upper Midwest/GL's region...then the pattern is showing signs of shifting west and flattening out.

 

00z EPS last night really blossomed the ridge into the central CONUS which strikingly looked similar to what happened just before Thanksgiving.  30-day harmonic in play???  Might have to consider this scenario as all the models are seeing the PNA relax mid month and possibly the EPO.  IF, and a big IF, the -NAO does develop this would help generate a favorable storm track across the middle of the nation.

 

A couple days ago I posted maps of the GEFS 10mb forecasts and they were suggesting a jet stream targeting the west.  I find it is a valuable longer range tool to see guidance in long range forecasting.  Much better than the 500mb maps to provide us with clues as to where the pattern may be heading.  Anyhow, last nights 00z GEFS still showing this jet re-alignment Day 10-13 for a "brief" period of when we may expect to see the jet less amplified out west.  Could a more zonal flow provide some relief out in the Plains???

[Tom]

Lot's of interesting data coming in suggesting the 2nd half of December to turn more stormier across the CONUS, esp out west and even into parts of the SW where they badly need it.  Both JMA Weeklies and CFSv2 weeklies indicating the demise of the stout +PNA pattern while keeping the Alaskan Ridge alive and well, leaves room for systems to cut underneath and start targeting the Rockies.  Is this somewhat of a Christmas miracle???  Well, sorta, but it also may be confirming the length of the LRC which I'm really trying to pin down now as we get deeper into December.  It's really been on my mind as I'm trying to figure out this complex puzzle.

 

Here is what I'm seeing.  Back in the late Oct, specifically between Oct 20-22nd we saw a strong PAC jet hit the OR/WA region which flooded the CONUS with very warm air downstream for a "brief" period which then lead to an amplification of the pattern later in the period and produced the BIG GL's storm (Oct 23rd-24th).  Isn't that what the 00z EPS is suggest in the Day 10-14 period???  Interesting, right?  Now, let's say there is a somewhat of a 58-61 day cycle.  Look at the jet stream pattern back on 00z Oct 21st....

 

 

 

Now, what are the 00z GEFS showing around the 20th of the month???  It's not strikingly similar at this range, but a flattening of the pattern is showing up from where it is now and where it will be in about 10-13 days.  This is what I will be looking for over the course of the next week to see if this PAC jet behaves similarly during the week of the Winter Solstice.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Snowlover76]

Sounds ok but not holding my breath.

[Niko]

@Jaster/WestMJim, you guys getting any snow this morning??  Looks like this wave coming through is enhancing the LES on radar this morning.

I certainly am. Checked my radar and I have streamers reaching MBY w a dusting in all spots currently.

[Niko]

Currently @ 27F w light snow and calm winds for a change.

[Niko]

00z Euro over the next 7 days....

 

Sweet.

[Minny_Weather]

Wow! The ridge could piss off RIGHT as I leave here for a week during Christmas?! I'm shocked!

[jaster220]

Hello!

 

 

[westMJim]

Love hearing the positive feedback!  Roads are terrible here to from just a minor dusting and no residual chemicals on the roadways.  Looking forward to seeing the flakes fly tomorrow night.  All the models are spitting out some major qpf totals for SW MI over the course of the next week.  Someone is going to have some lolipop totals.  I'm sure you'll cash in pretty good.

A little late on this as I stayed up too late last night.  I just took a measurement and here at my house I now have 2” of snow.  I was getting large flakes but now just a light fine snow falling. temperature here is now 27° 

[Niko]

A little late on this as I stayed up too late last night.  I just took a measurement and here at my house I now have 2” of snow.  I was getting large flakes but now just a light fine snow falling. temperature here is now 27° 

On & off snowshowers here IMBY w a dusting. Currently @ 27F.

[gabel23]

Meanwhile southwest Texas and Mexico are experiencing snow......what a backwards and strange beginning of winter....

 

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY FROM THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS SOUTH TO THE CHISOS MOUNTAINS INCLUDING THE MARFA
PLATEAU...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE UPPER TRANS
PECOS OF WEST TEXAS AND THE GLASS MOUNTAINS OF PECOS COUNTY...

.The approach of an upper air disturbance from the northwest and
the favorable position of an upper jet to the south of the Rio
Grande will combine to renew and prolong conditions favorable for
snow today. The atmosphere is colder and most all winter precipitation
will be in the form of snow, some heavy. New snowfall amounts of 2
to 6 inches are expected in warned areas, even higher local amounts
are possible in the highest elevations.
 

[Tom]

A little late on this as I stayed up too late last night.  I just took a measurement and here at my house I now have 2” of snow.  I was getting large flakes but now just a light fine snow falling. temperature here is now 27° 

Awesome!  #Winter has made it to your back yard.  Post some pics as the snows continue to pile up in your area!

[Tom]

Meanwhile southwest Texas and Mexico are experiencing snow......what a backwards and strange beginning of winter....

 

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY FROM THE GUADALUPE

MOUNTAINS SOUTH TO THE CHISOS MOUNTAINS INCLUDING THE MARFA

PLATEAU...

 

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE UPPER TRANS

PECOS OF WEST TEXAS AND THE GLASS MOUNTAINS OF PECOS COUNTY...

 

.The approach of an upper air disturbance from the northwest and

the favorable position of an upper jet to the south of the Rio

Grande will combine to renew and prolong conditions favorable for

snow today. The atmosphere is colder and most all winter precipitation

will be in the form of snow, some heavy. New snowfall amounts of 2

to 6 inches are expected in warned areas, even higher local amounts

are possible in the highest elevations.

 

Signs of Global Warming!  J/K...

[Niko]

It turns brutal early next week after the next clipper-type system. My highs on Tuesday not expected to get outta the teens and lows in the single digits. :ph34r:

 

Ofc, w snow on the ground, I can easily see some subzero lows.

[westMJim]

As stated above here at my house I now have 2” of snow on the ground everything is covered there is snow on the driveway and road and of course the roofs and on the trees. All in all not a bad coverage. Right now, still getting a light snow falling and as is often the case with lake effect the sun is also trying to show thru.

 

Climatology for today December 7^th    At Grand Rapids, MI

 

The average 30 year H/L here at Grand Rapids is 37/26 the 120 year average is 36.4/24.8°

The record high is 62° set in 1946 and the coldest maximum was 16° in 1972

The record low is -4° set in 1972 and the warmest minimum is 45° set in 1980’

The most precip fell of 1.12” fell in 1927.

The largest snow fall was 7.7” in 1909 the most on the ground at 7 Am  is 8” in 1909, 1910 and 1919.

Last year the H/L was 35/28° and a trace of snow fell and a trace was reported on the ground.

[jzuzphreek]

The kids and I had some fun in our brief snow shower last night! 

 

It was a brief (only about 20 minutes) but vigorous snow, leaving behind a trace on the grass and cars till morning. Here's a shot of my little jedi practicing for next Thursday!