December 2017 Observations and Discussions

[Niko]

Currently @ 21F under clear skies and calm wind.

[Niko]

Brownsville, TX under a WWA w couple of inches of snow. :lol:

[Niko]

Temps remain below normal to way below, especially next week, where temps may not get outta the teens for highs and some places could be flirting w subzero temps at night, especially w a snowcover.

[Tom]

#Thundersnow reported in Corpus Christi, TX!  4" of snow already #Amazeballs

[Niko]

Deep south is getting in on some action. Even New Orleans, LA is seeing some snow mixing in w rain.

[Tom]

To top things off, we could be looking at a mild Christmas according to mr. swails.

I would have to disagree and we will likely be BN temp wise and the chances of a White Christmas for some on here are actually on the rise.  I'll explain later when I put together a post.  I would have to say, the period between the 15th-20th is the "transition" period and the ridge will fight back coming out of the west similar to what we saw back in November but it won't be nearly as bad.  30-day harmonic and the LRC starting to look good to me.

[jaster220]

Deep south is getting in on some action. Even New Orleans, LA is seeing some snow mixing in w rain.

 

Yeah, an inch for my sister and her fam in Baton Rouge...rare for them indeed, early Dec no less. Managed a heavy dusting to a "mood coating" in Marshall yesterday - will be gone with first morning sun-rays, LOL. As expected, GRR managed to blow yet another call when they extended the WWA east for Calhoun. Even the west end of the county only saw about an inch. They should just give up Calhoun and Jackson counties to IWX, we'd be better served.

 

From Michael Clark (in case you were missing your daily cup of rose-colored outlooks..)

 

New NMME (multi model ensemble) for January suggests a very active storm track for the Midwest and Ohio valley.

 

[Niko]

To top things off, we could be looking at a mild Christmas according to mr. swails.

Pattern is looking BN and snow chances will be increasing for many.

[Niko]

Yeah, an inch for my sister and her fam in Baton Rouge...rare for them indeed, early Dec no less. Managed a heavy dusting to a "mood coating" in Marshall yesterday - will be gone with first morning sun-rays, LOL. As expected, GRR managed to blow yet another call when they extended the WWA east for Calhoun. Even the west end of the county only saw about an inch. They should just give up Calhoun and Jackson counties to IWX, we'd be better served.

 

From Michael Clark (in case you were missing your daily cup of rose-colored outlooks..)

 

 

20171208 NMME Jan2018 CONUS precip.jpg

Tis the season!    ofc, rare indeed for those places to be seeing snow this time of the year and that much as well.

[mlgamer]

No 3" or more snowfalls in 1,403 days.

Only 0.17" of precip in the last 48 days.

 

We're pretty much on life support here.

[Tom]

It is now becoming more likely that the mid month transition is now in play as all the models are seeing the teleconnections flip and allow a more "zonal" (ish) pattern to develop for a period allowing storm systems to track across the Plains.  Where they track is in question, but I do see a couple systems that have some interest in the Plains states.

 

00z EPS showing the 16th-17th system coming down the Rockies with a lead front runner tracking across the north...

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017120800/noram/eps_mslp_anom_noram_204.png

 

 

 

However, I looked at the 00z EPS members and there was a secondary piece that dug into the TX Panhandle region that has potential to develop.  We saw this happen several times this season already so something to look for.

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017120800/noram/eps_mslp_anom_noram_228.png

 

 

 

What may be the more "interesting" storm system I'm seeing should be around the Winter Solstice.  00z EPS showing a "cutter" look with the ensemble maps below and the 00z GEFS are somewhat similar.  I like the rising heights in NW NAMER which should seed a lot of cold air into the pattern and we would need both to "marry" together to get a winter storm.  I think the pattern gets real cold after this storm potential passes which we would then be approaching Christmas.

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017120800/noram/eps_mslp_anom_noram_336.png

 

 

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017120800/noram/eps_z500a_noram_324.png

[westMJim]

Here are some snow fall reports from across Michigan from the lake effect snow event from 12/7/17 here at my house (about 6 miles NW of Grand Rapids) 3” ….15.8″  Mancelona, 12″ Seney  11″ Alba, 9″ Waters, Pine Stump Jct. and near Newberry, 8″ Boyne Falls, 6.2″ Grandville, 6″ Allendale, near Jenison, Rudyard, Petoskey, Munising and Painesdale, 5″ S. Ste. Marie, Traverse City, Gaylord, Cheboygan, Ironwood, Watersmeet, 4″ Wyoming, Allegan, Onaway, Brethren (Van Buren Co.), E. Jordan, 3″ Scottville, Maple City, 2.8″ Comstock Park, 2.5″ Norton Shores, 2″ Muskegon, Montague, Whitehall, Breedsville (Van Buren Co.), Pullman, Plainwell and Ludington, 1″ at Grand Rapids, Kalamazoo, Houghton Lake, South Bend and Marquette

[westMJim]

Climatology for today December 8^th    At Grand Rapids, MI

The 30 average H/L for Grand Rapids is 37/26 the 120 average is 36.5/23.8³

The record high is 64° set in 1966 the record coldest maximum is 17 in 1909

The record low is +2° in 2005 the record warmest minimum is 47 in 1966

The most precip is 0.78” in 1966

 

The biggest snow fall is 4.5” in 1937 the most on the ground at 7 am was 9” in 1909

 Last year the H/L was 27/24 1.1” of snow fall was reported at 7 am there was a trace

[NEJeremy]

Only 10-14 more days away and we're going to get that switch Nebraska peeps   At this point I don't believe anything on the models until we're within 3 days.

 

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz..................................

Today

Partly sunny, with a high near 36. Northwest wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.

Tonight

Partly cloudy, with a low around 24. North northwest wind 6 to 10 mph.

Saturday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 35. North northwest wind 5 to 11 mph.

Saturday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 23. Light and variable wind becoming west southwest 5 to 7 mph after midnight.

Sunday

Sunny, with a high near 53. West northwest wind 6 to 10 mph.

Sunday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 32.

Monday

Partly sunny, with a high near 46. Breezy.

Monday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26.

Tuesday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 41.

Tuesday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 27.

Wednesday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 45.

Wednesday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 27.

Thursday

Partly sunny, with a high near 41.

[Snowlover76]

Pattern change is always 14 days away. Effff this winter.

[OKwx2k4]

Idk about anyone else but the last half of this month looks pretty fantastic to me.

[OKwx2k4]

Pretty solidly cold early December morning.

[Andrew NE]

Idk about anyone else but the last half of this month looks pretty fantastic to me.

 

Be careful with that quote, the first half of December was supposed to be epic  

[Jaycee]

As if Eastern Colorado wasn't the worst place on the Planet already (seriously, if you haven't been there already, this place smells like a 64 pack of hard boiled eggs with a complimentary lack of any vegetation whatsoever). Check out this forecast:

 

 

[Tom]

Either you "see" it, or you don't...the pattern shift is gonna happen...I'm 100% confident of it.  Something tells me nature is going to remind us that it does snow in Nebraska.

[Tom]

Well, that was quick, 12z GFS flashing a nice storm "fitting" the 30-day harmonic cycle and coinciding with the "transition" period.  Interesting...

[Niko]

EC bracing for a snowstorm. DC-BOS looking like a swath of 4-6inches.

 

WWA issued for the greater NYC Metro area and surrounding areas as well.

 

Per TWC:

 

TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. * WHERE... PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK. * WHEN... FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY. HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY EVENING. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... BE PREPARED FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES, AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING

[Niko]

Beautiful day today w lots of sunshine and cold temps. Currently @ 29F. Clouds should be on the increase later on in the day as the snow arrives later tonight. Couple of inches is likely for MBY.

[St Paul Storm]

Greetings from Ireland where a storm is hitting bringing unusually cold temps and snow. Expecting 4-8cm of snow tonight. This will be the first measurable snowfall in Dublin in 7 years according to a local I was talking to. I planned this trip well!

[Niko]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017120806/066/snku_acc.us_ne.png

[Niko]

Greetings from Ireland where a storm is hitting bringing unusually cold temps and snow. Expecting 4-8cm of snow tonight. This will be the first measurable snowfall in Dublin in 7 years according to a local I was talking to. I planned this trip well!

Excellent. Enjoy your stay there and post some Ireland snow pics.

[Niko]

Currently snowing in Brownsville, TX w a current reading of 34F. 

[Tom]

Greetings from Ireland where a storm is hitting bringing unusually cold temps and snow. Expecting 4-8cm of snow tonight. This will be the first measurable snowfall in Dublin in 7 years according to a local I was talking to. I planned this trip well!

You brought some MN flavor to Ireland!  Glad your enjoying it out there.  Cheers!  

[Snowlover76]

Either you "see" it, or you don't...the pattern shift is gonna happen...I'm 100% confident of it. Something tells me nature is going to remind us that it does snow in Nebraska.

I hope you are right

[jaster220]

Well, that was quick, 12z GFS flashing a nice storm "fitting" the 30-day harmonic cycle and coinciding with the "transition" period.  Interesting...

 

Unfortunately, looks kinda warmish and not flakey enough to satisfy the peeps who will still be awaiting their first decent snowfall..

[Tom]

Unfortunately, looks kinda warmish and not flakey enough to satisfy the peeps who will still be awaiting their first decent snowfall..

True, but the opportunity is there. That’s all you can ask for at this range.

 

Edit: I don’t like the spike in the AO/NAO

[Niko]

All records have been broken down south w all that snow. A friend of mine who moved to Alabama just recently told me that they are expecting 6"+. Dang!

 

Tbh, I can see this pattern really upsetting the Neb peeps now because it is snowing where it typically snows very little, whereas, Neb peeps are currently getting zilch. Definitely a frustration pattern for ya'll folks there.

[GDR]

Like I heard, maybe a mild christmas

[jaster220]

True, but the opportunity is there. That’s all you can ask for at this range.

 

Edit: I don’t like the spike in the AO/NAO

 

How's the EPO looking?

[Jaycee]

All records have been broken down south w all that snow. A friend of mine who moved to Alabama just recently told me that they are expecting 6"+. Dang!

 

Tbh, I can see this pattern really upsetting the Neb peeps now because it is snowing where it typically snows very little, whereas, Neb peeps are currently getting zilch. Definitely a frustration pattern for ya'll folks there.

 

Yeah man, it shouldn't ever be like this. Brownsville Texas, has received more snowfall than we have this year. South Padre Island, has received more snow. WTF. This is a spring break destination lol I shouldn't have less snow than them! Especially given that it melts right away, and they're right back to amazing weather, while we're stuck in the cold and bone dry.

 

Blowing dust is truly on the doorstep if we don't get SOMETHING soon. It's already knocking on our doorstep out west, so it's only a matter of time. If you outline where the snowfall is falling, it's disturbing to say the least. Upper-midwest, great lakes, east coast, southeast, south central, you name it. it's everywhere, EXCEPT here. Been pretty raw out here to say the least, can't wait to get out to Vancouver this next week so I can get out of this disgusting pattern we're in for awhile.

 

 

EDIT: As I say that ---

 

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20171205/20171205_NE_none.png

[Niko]

Yeah man, it shouldn't ever be like this. Brownsville Texas, has received more snowfall than we have this year. South Padre Island, has received more snow. WTF. This is a spring break destination lol I shouldn't have less snow than them! Especially given that it melts right away, and they're right back to amazing weather, while we're stuck in the cold and bone dry.

 

Blowing dust is truly on the doorstep if we don't get SOMETHING soon. It's already knocking on our doorstep out west, so it's only a matter of time. If you outline where the snowfall is falling, it's disturbing to say the least. Upper-midwest, great lakes, east coast, southeast, south central, you name it. it's everywhere, EXCEPT here. Been pretty raw out here to say the least, can't wait to get out to Vancouver this next week so I can get out of this disgusting pattern we're in for awhile.

 

 

EDIT: As I say that ---

 

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20171205/20171205_NE_none.png

I hear ya man. Take a vacation and leave Neb for awhile. Will do ya some good. All this dry, cold weather ya'll been getting can really affect a person.

[Niko]

I can already see some, high, thin clouds approaching my area. Clipper on its way!

[Snowlover76]

How'd the euro look

[Hawkeye]

Again, the latest Euro does not have a single flake of snow or drop of rain around here through the next ten days.  It has a pattern shift, but it's from cold and dry to mild and dry.  There's a storm digging into the plains around day 9, but it has no moisture until it's well east of the region.  We're staring at a third atrocious snow season in a row.  Things can change, of course, but my records show that a snow-free December means a below to well-below avg season.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

The fact that southern Texas has seen more snow so far then Nebraska is nuts. Just adds to the depressing factor of this December so far lol.