December 2017 Observations and Discussions

[jaster220]

  GGEM tries to pop a secondary along the CF in the OHV around the 6th, and shows some snow over mby. Doubtful at this range. I've seen those work out 1 or 2 times only. 

[Tom]

GGEM tries to pop a secondary along the CF in the OHV around the 6th, and shows some snow over mby. Doubtful at this range. I've seen those work out 1 or 2 times only.

Unfortunately, I don’t see that playing out with this system. 12z EPS is trending towards and amped W GL’s cutter. Depending on how fast this storm deepens and if it can go tilt, some on here can get some snow out of this.

[Jaycee]

Okay well the GFS also has snow Southern Louisiana soooooooo....... #notlegit #fakenews

[jaster220]

Unfortunately, I don’t see that playing out with this system. 12z EPS is trending towards and amped W GL’s cutter. Depending on how fast this storm deepens and if it can go tilt, some on here can get some snow out of this.

 

GEM taking it into the 980's as well. In a similar location as the Euro. Way NW for us, but I'm hopeful for the Plains peeps' sake. 

[jaster220]

Okay well the GFS also has snow Southern Louisiana soooooooo....... #notlegit #fakenews

 

Yep, HOUSTON heads-up!  

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Typically clippers miss our area to the north and east do please understand our frustration lol. But if the pv can move west and south we may have a shot

[FV-Mike]

12z GFS very active, even with the cold. Clipper parade on this run.

-25 850s showing up!

Nice to see.  Typically Chi and east don't see huge storms in December. lets just get some white on the ground to start off winter 

[Craig-OmahaWX]

I must say, this is crazy looking! 

[Minny_Weather]

Guys, 18z GFS is being slap-happy again...

 

 

[bud2380]

I'm going to blindly trust the 18z GFS and assume it is exactly right.  At least it gives some hope that this pattern change could bring the first accumulating snows for much of us.  

[Tom]

The 11th-15th period is when I feel a lot of us on here stand a good chance at seeing snow out of this pattern. Been on my calendar for a little while and from what I’m seeing on the ensembles, it is keeping my hopes up.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

This is insane eye candy lol. That's all it is right now but wow

 

[Hawkeye]

I should be able to finish bagging oak leaves this weekend and then get my non-hardy plants covered on Sunday, just in time for winter to finally hit.

[bud2380]

Sweet.

 

[Guest Snowball]

That's a big bullseye! If only it was 24hrs out

[Snowlover76]

Oh mama.

 

 

Doubt there will even be a storm that week anyway.

[clintbeed1993]

Sweet.

 

Capture.PNG

[St Paul Storm]

All the 18z GFS did was ensure that people will get their hopes up on 300+ hour clown maps. But hey, at least some storms are starting to show up on the models. Time to kick off winter.

[hlcater]

This is insane eye candy lol. That's all it is right now but wow

 

 

Nah, that image is showing SNOW in NEBRASKA. Can't possibly be right. I'd be more willing to trust it if it were showing 32.5 and rain in NE and 28 and dumping over Chicago.

[Niko]

What a beauty PNA ridge on all the globals and ensembles. The Euro also really pumps the west coast ridge. I like the way things are shaping up. A storm should develop for the GL's region and for some others as well soon. Also, EPO on the GFS reaches -7 deviation by come mid December. That spells severe cold. I could be looking at teens for highs if this all pans out.

[Niko]

All the 18z GFS did was ensure that people will get their hopes up on 300+ hour clown maps. But hey, at least some storms are starting to show up on the models. Time to kick off winter.

I agree!

[jaster220]

But this totally would so fit with the Plains's lifestyle of one extreme or the other. Lol @ 0" or 3 feet!

 

We've seen the single run bombshell showing 40" bull's-eyes before. But this is like 2nd time now. Has to make you wonder, at least a little..

[jaster220]

Oh mama.

Doubt there will even be a storm that week anyway.

Lol @ your pessimism. Maybe if you go on vacation something will hit??

[Niko]

Lol @ your pessimism. Maybe if you go on vacation something will hit??

[jaster220]

Nah, that image is showing SNOW in NEBRASKA. Can't possibly be right. I'd be more willing to trust it if it were showing 32.5 and rain in NE and 28 and dumping over Chicago.

I actually noticed the GEM was flashing a nice west to east alignment @ 500 mb towards the end of it's run as well. Now the GFS sees that as well. Hmm. May not be the final solution, but they're starting to get clues at least..

[Niko]

My extended shows dry weather and turning substantially colder for early part of Dec. Hopefully, a storm will pop up somewhere during that timeframe w all of that cold air around.

[jaster220]

Guys, 18z GFS is being slap-happy again...

 

gfs_6hr_snow_acc_conus2_59.png

 

gfs_t2m_b_conus2_63.png

 

 

That temp map HAS to be close to what Dec 12, 2000 looked like!

 

 

 

Sweet.

 

Capture.PNG

Is it still snowing in MI at that point? Just wondering, thx

[Minny_Weather]

 That temp map HAS to be close to what Dec 12, 2000 looked like!

Maybe. LNK had 10/-14 on 12/12/2000.

[Niko]

Per NOAA:

 

A strong cold front tracking through the region
on Tuesday will then mark the beginning of a major pattern shift as
upper level troughing digs into the region and much colder air
filters southward during the middle part of next week.

[Snowlover76]

Lol @ your pessimism. Maybe if you go on vacation something will hit??

I was in Colorado the day Lincoln had its tornado in 2016

[Craig-OmahaWX]

GFS further east with the arctic air later next week..still a long ways out though. Several clippers.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Honestly nothing that we haven't already seen with the latest GFS tonight, seems weaker with the cold air. WE've already seen highs in the 30s so thats not a big deal anymore.

[GDR]

I have a feeling clippers will win out this winter, which isn't bad. I'll take 1-3 and 2-4 all day every day!

[Tom]

00z Euro trending a little colder and trying to show some snow in NE/IA in the defo band.  Euro Control is similar to the Euro so something to monitor.  Shall we start a thread or wait???

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017113000/mw/ecmwf_ptype_mw_126.png

 

 

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017113000/mw/ecmwf_acc_snow_mw_138.png

[Minny_Weather]

00z Euro trending a little colder and trying to show some snow in NE/IA in the defo band. Euro Control is similar to the Euro so something to monitor. Shall we start a thread or wait???

 

 

I'll go ahead and say wait. It's one run of one model.

[Tom]

I'll go ahead and say wait. It's one run of one model.

I agree, my feeling is to wait at least through today's 12z suite.

[Niko]

BRRRRRR...for next week. Bottom drops off.

[Snowlover76]

BRRRRRR...for next week. Bottom drops off.

Looks warm here

[jaster220]

Little late with this, but tablet at home's got limited options..

 

This is like the longest storm I've ever seen modeled off yesterday's 18z - like 42 hrs and still snowing! 

 

Just couldn't let that epic phantasy run get away without a keepsake 

 

 

[Tom]

After digesting all the data from the various operational/ensembles for Week 1-2, I am struck by the beauty of the potential and the North American 500mb mean pattern.  If we had these maps available in the late 70's, I wonder if they would look very close to what they are advertising in the longer range??  It's almost textbook from what I have seen and read in papers written by Jerome Namias.

 

After the 4th-6th storm system, I'm more encouraged that the pattern leading up to the next bigger storm potential (11th-15th), that we will see a dominant clipper pattern for a good stretch.  My feeling is that these clippers could produce some healthy snows and its not out of the realm of possibility that one may become a hybrid and over produce in this type of environment (Ex; High ratio's).  I'm inclined to believe that these smaller scale systems will lay down some fresh powdery snows even to those out in the Plains if the PV does in fact center itself in SE Canada.  Nobody is out of the game in this year's pattern and I feel more confident than ever that this won't be a season where one part of the sub forum misses out on the action.  Confidence is growing that this is setting up to be a "share the wealth" season for all of us on here throughout the winter.  I know everyone is itching to get their first accumulating snows (believe me, so am I) but if you miss out on early next weeks storm, there are plenty more chances in the near future before the Christmas holiday.