December Weather In the PNW

[Frontal Snowsquall]

NWS is forecasting snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain. What a bunch of P's afraid to be wrong. So silly that in 2017 we can't do any better.

Let them be that way. We don't want the NWS curse.

[Guest Dome Buster]

Hrrr is pretty bullish on moisture in the early morning. Although it isn’t showing up as snow. I would think if anything would be snow it would be that first band. We may be in for a nasty zr event in Portland otherwise

 

Edit: it also shows no areas west of the cascades below freezing at all tonight. I’m sitting at 29 now. Wonder if it isn’t handling the gorge right?

Yep, 29.8 here now. Not forecast at all. Mark will eat his early forecast. Bet he updates.

[The Swamp]

Let them be that way. We don't want the NWS curse.

 

you might hurt jaya's little feelers 

[Perturbed Member]

Hrrr is pretty bullish on moisture in the early morning. Although it isn’t showing up as snow. I would think if anything would be snow it would be that first band. We may be in for a nasty zr event in Portland otherwise

 

Edit: it also shows no areas west of the cascades below freezing at all tonight. I’m sitting at 29 now. Wonder if it isn’t handling the gorge right?

 

HRRRs temps look pretty suspect to me. Very unlikely that there would be no freezing precip anywhere west of the cascades in the morning. Has some parts of the valley close to 40F by 6-7 AM...

 

It seems to be drunk. 

[Guest Dome Buster]

Dewpoint at PDX airport was 39 degrees at midnight. Currently at 24.

[snow_wizard]

you might hurt jaya's little feelers 

 

He was referring to Portland.

[The Swamp]

He was referring to Portland.

 

well, i can't disagree with the sentiment though. the nws curse is real

[snow_wizard]

My opinion is changing based on how cold the east wind is here tonight.  Just above freezing with a dp around 20.  Numbers like that mean snow or freezing rain from the overrunning part of tomorrow's event for the EPSL.  This is a legit cold air mass.  I reserve the right to update this opinion later.

[Perturbed Member]

Let them be that way. We don't want the NWS curse.

 

They pretty much admit in the AFD that they have no idea what is going to happen because of the 12z Euro refusing to come in line with the other models. They will probably make a call after 00z runs. 

[Perturbed Member]

Looks like you can see the first signs of the front on the Medford and Eureka radars down south. 

[snow_wizard]

40/35 at PDX so far today, but I bet they get to freezing by midnight...

 

SEA came up with 38/29.  Not Earth shattering, but respectably cold for them.

[HighlandExperience]

[snow_wizard]

Had a high in the 40’s today with Crystal clear skies... currently, 33 degrees with dew point of 28.

 

It only hit 38 here and that was with an easterly breeze.  Amazing how cold that feels when the dp is well below freezing.

[Front Ranger]

That map desperately needs a new color scheme. It's hard to read considering anywhere from 1-5 inches is a very similar shade of blue.

Probably intentional.

[snow_wizard]

I don’t want to see Viagra falling from the sky

 

The models show little inhibition of the precip due to east winds.  I am a bit concerned about freezing rain though.  That stuff is a mess for trying to get around in.

[snow_wizard]

Probably intentional.

 

A bit cynical are we?

[Tenochtitlan]

I'm feeling good about this event based on the low public expectations and bearish NWS forecast, how cold it is tonight so far, and casual glances at the models people have posted. I'm back in Seattle for Christmas and I'm really excited to potentially see it snow in the city, even if it's only a little bit...it would be the first time I've seen that since I moved to Bellingham a few years ago.

[snow_wizard]

They pretty much admit in the AFD that they have no idea what is going to happen because of the 12z Euro refusing to come in line with the other models. They will probably make a call after 00z runs. 

 

For Seattle if the GFS and Euro could move toward each other it would be a huge win for sure.

[snow_wizard]

I'm feeling good about this event based on the low public expectations and bearish NWS forecast, how cold it is tonight so far, and casual glances at the models people have posted. I'm back in Seattle for Christmas and I'm really excited to potentially see it snow in the city, even if it's only a little bit...it would be the first time I've seen that since I moved to Bellingham a few years ago.

 

Yup...the 14 degrees at Stampede Pass speaks volumes.  The outflow from the passes tomorrow will easily be cold enough for freezing temps when the precip is falling.  Going to be a wintry day!

[Perturbed Member]

For Seattle if the GFS and Euro could move toward each other it would be a huge win for sure.

 

Even the euro solution gave SEA 1-2 inches and I suspect the precip would actually extend a bit further north than modeled there. I think at least an inch of snow for SEA metro as a minimum is a good bet at this point. 

[Guest Dome Buster]

Fox 12 is sticking to their forecast from this morning. Hmmmm, Marja was looking hot as usual though. At least they have that going for them.

[snow_wizard]

Late Dec 1956 and early Jan 1957 are consistently showing up as analogs.  That season has been a great analog all along.  The last half of January was fantastic that winter.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Drizzle ended about 4pm and the low clouds have started to break up. Down to 33 now.

[Guest Dome Buster]

Looks like low is developing way further south than expected. The cold air is winning for the Portland area. Looks like my forecast is going to hold. FUKK the models.

[Perturbed Member]

Looks like low is developing way further south than expected. The cold air is winning for the Portland area. Looks like my forecast is going to hold. FUKK the models.

 

How did you determine that it is way south?

[umadbro]

20. Gusting to 15 out of the North.

[Blizzard777]

NWS is forecasting snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain. What a bunch of P's afraid to be wrong. So silly that in 2017 we can't do any better.

I’m assuming that’s the new employee they hired from the post office giving that forecast. Don’t blame him

[SilverFallsAndrew]

20. Gusting to 15 out of the North.

 

Wow, super cold in Sherwood.

[Guest Dome Buster]

How did you determine that it is way south?

Just watching the visible satellite. It really looks like to me things are coming in-line with the EURO. Northern low is splitting off but the southern energy is digging due west and appears to me that secondary low is developing at 30N/135W. Maybe I am wrong but the loop sure looks EUROish.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

He was referring to Portland.

Yeah I was referring to Portland. I don't know anything about Seattle.

[MossMan]

25 and still dropping rapidly.

[Jbolin]

Just watching the visible satellite. It really looks like to me things are coming in-line with the EURO. Northern low is splitting off but the southern energy is digging due west and appears to me that secondary low is developing at 30N/135W. Maybe I am wrong but the loop sure looks EUROish.

Where exactly?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Currently down to -7 at Joseph, OR.

 

3 at La Grande.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

They pretty much admit in the AFD that they have no idea what is going to happen because of the 12z Euro refusing to come in line with the other models. They will probably make a call after 00z runs.

Yeah, it would be good if they came to a better agreement tonight.

[seattleweatherguy]

Where exactly?

The untrained eye and lack of experience I see on the or or wa border seems like where he is talking about

[jaya]

you might hurt jaya's little feelers 

Won't hurt my feelings - just giving my opinion! 

[jaya]

Where exactly?

That low at 38N 160ish W ...  how strong does it get and how does it affect the downstream ridge.  A bit stronger drives coastal energy farther south .. weaker a bit to the north. GFS has a history of underdeveloping lows. Likely the reason the ECMWF may work out.  NAM usually trends toward the ECMWF (don't know why).

[Guest Dome Buster]

Where exactly?

Well, as was said earlier, not really defined. Just looks like a bunch of energy is heading due north and the main energy is heading towards South/Central Oregon. I realize that is the warm front but I just don't see the secondary low heading north of Portland. Too much jet suppression with this cold air.

[Perturbed Member]

The NAM has decided that PDX won't really get much moisture. 

 

[Farmboy]

I was on hwy. 197 at Tygh ridge summit between Maupin and Dufur at 3pm today where I got this beautiful shot of Mt. Adams. There had just been around 5 or 6 inches of snow the night before. I pulled over to get this shot, only spent a total of no more than 4 minutes outside, but it was so bitter cold, my hands burned when I got back in my truck. Believe me, there is a ton of cold air on the other side of those mountains..... I think the some of the models are way underestimating the influence of this air mass.... There was snow on the ground 10 miles west of Cascade Locks. I think this is going to be a disastrous icing event for parts of PDX...