December Weather In the PNW

[HighlandExperience]

This is looking like the gunfight at the OK corral. The GFS and the Euro are staring each other down. Us northerners want the GFS to win and the southerners are looking to the Euro. The Euro of course is the odds on favorite but maybe they will shoot each other and we all win.

The euro was good for King County this morning. Just wasn’t spitting out anything crazy

[HighlandExperience]

I GIVE UP! The Canadian GEM now shows only an inch at most in Seattle for Christmas Eve night. It now puts a bunch of snow in for Wednesday. Not much consistency in runs ...

Isn’t that more in line with the euro? Most of the totals on the morning run were 1-2 inches in Seattle

[Geos]

Nice, Astoria landfall

 

 

Total GFS snowfall. Down slightly at about 5" here.

 

[Skagit Weather]

All the models are getting pretty anemic up here. Even the Canadian barely shows an inch now. I'll remain cautiously optimistic, but the trend (and history suggest otherwise).

[Perturbed Member]

GEM gives zero snow to PDX. Never gets above freezing at PDX but all of the precip falls as ice/sleet. Nasty. Not a ton of QPF though. 

[seattleweatherguy]

What model was most accurate last time it snowed, maybe that will help in this situation

[Geos]

0z GEM

 

[Winterdog]

I think the Euro is going to send us all to the ER.

[jaya]

What model was most accurate last time it snowed, maybe that will help in this situation

Too bad it doesn't work that way!  It would be easier!

[Perturbed Member]

I think all of the models have trended at least a little towards the 12z Euro. 00z Euro is going to be interesting. 

[Winterdog]

The euro was good for King County this morning. Just wasn’t spitting out anything crazy

 

Just a trace in my back yard though.  I'm biased.

[Timmy]

The wrf has 0 snow for pdx or at my house for that matter through 24 hours. 12z had 4” here

[TT-SEA]

Snow totals through 4 p.m. tomorrow look pretty sad...

 

[Geos]

Snow totals through 4 p.m. tomorrow look pretty sad...

 

 

 

Yeah by most models though it doesn't really get going around here until about 4pm. 

[MossMan]

Nice, Astoria landfall

 

 

Total GFS snowfall. Down slightly at about 5" here.

 

Jaya...do you know why this map always shows the Everett thru Stanwood and over to Warm Beach area as always being blanked out?

[Timmy]

Snow totals through 4 p.m. tomorrow look pretty sad...

 

Next 6 hours has a bit tho

[MossMan]

Snow totals through 4 p.m. tomorrow look pretty sad...

 

Isn’t that when the precip was just going to start moving in, anyway?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Canadian Regional looks quite dry for Central Puget Sound area. Snow stays south and lighter. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem&region=nwus&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2017122400&fh=30&xpos=0&ypos=48

This model did good in the January 11 PDX heavy snow event.

[Bryant]

Still looks like for Whatcom County! One day south County will score...

[Frontal Snowsquall]

FWIW, several models are now showing what the Euro has always been showing, a secondary low making landfall south of PDX.

 

"The 12Z ECMWF show two low

centers, with one moving inland south of KPDX."

 

RGEM

 

 

NAVGEM

 

GEM

Yeah the RGEM was the only model that nailed the January 11 heavy snow event earlier this year. That second low is going to be key if we want more snow and less ice.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I think all of the models have trended at least a little towards the 12z Euro. 00z Euro is going to be interesting.

The time can't go fast enough.

[seattleweatherguy]

Start after 4pm is fine just snow D****T

[Jbolin]

Still looks like s**t for Whatcom County! One day south County will score...

umadbro ?

[TT-SEA]

Snow through Christmas morning... pretty pathetic.

 

[Winterdog]

Crap I've already equaled my low of 23.6F for this morning and it's only 8:30 pm.  

[Winterdog]

Snow through Christmas morning... pretty pathetic.

 

 

That's 4 am.  Surely there is a bit more after that.

[HighlandExperience]

Thankfully the WRF is mostly wrong. Hope the Euro holds

[luvssnow_spokane]

Snow through Christmas morning... pretty pathetic.

 

Just as I suspected all along ... lol

[jaya]

Jaya...do you know why this map always shows the Everett thru Stanwood and over to Warm Beach area as always being blanked out?

No.  But my guess would be model elevation or land use (land vs water)...grid points are about 13-15 km sq in the raw model. If the data used by Levi at tropicaltidbits are GRIB, then the resolution is 25 km.

[Perturbed Member]

WRF 

[jaya]

You know, the NWS forecast looks pretty reasonable.  Sorry!

[TT-SEA]

That's 4 am.  Surely there is a bit more after that.

 

No... that is pretty much it.   Here is through 4 p.m. on Christmas Day.

 

[MikeInEverett]

HRRR is wet but way too warm, only goes out to tomorrow afternoon so far though.

[Bryant]

umadbro ?

No, mesadbro =/

[HighlandExperience]

[MossMan]

Snow through Christmas morning... pretty pathetic.

 

Better than nothing!

[MossMan]

23.2 degrees. Chilly!

[MikeInEverett]

I have a bad feeling about the Euro. Hope my feeling is wrong.

[Geos]

3km NAM actually shows more snowfall across a wider area of Puget Sound than the 18z while maintaining a slight emphasis on King and Snohomish counties... More similar to the 12z run.

 

Looks good to me.

 

Still feel ok about us getting a white Christmas.

[jaya]

Post the wxbell image

You can see it yourself by going to https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km&region=nwus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2017122400&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=0