December Weather In the PNW

[umadbro]

GOLU guys. Quit model riding. It isn't worth it.

[snow_wizard]

I don't mean to sound disparaging...but using terms like "double barrel", "epic battle", and "dump snow" makes this sound like one of us wrote it.

 

Like, they really wanted a wrench to be thrown in their previous forecast and couldn't even wait for the 0z Euro to come out to write this.

 

It is quite dramatic alright.

[snow_wizard]

You think tommorow will be all snow?

 

Could be some sleet or ZR in some places.  I think anything after about 11pm will be snow.  The Euro is insistent almost everything will be snow and has been for a while.

 

I had ZR here last December and the air mass wasn't nearly this impressive so regular rain seems highly unlikely anywhere exposed to east winds.

[BLI snowman]

Pdx nws tweeted that pdx has a 20-30% chance of several inches of snow.

Literally nothing that is supporting that.

[Geos]

Looks like the 6z NAM brings a mix up to Seattle but that's about as far north as it gets before colder air filters in behind the low.

[ShawniganLake]

[MikeInEverett]

7771E6A1-3B90-414E-A75D-49248FFF443C.png

HRRR on another planet right now compared to the other models.

[Chewbacca Defense]

Down to 19 IMBY. 

 

I haven't looked at the latest model runs but I get the feeling the moisture isn't going to make it into Whatcom County.  I hope I'm wrong but and maybe I'll look before I go to bed, but maybe its just better to just have a beer and hit the rack.

[Geos]

HRRR on another planet right now compared to the other models.

That's about what I was thinking. Weird

[Geos]

Total from 6z NAM

 

[pscz1140]

Down to 19 IMBY. 

 

I haven't looked at the latest model runs but I get the feeling the moisture isn't going to make it into Whatcom County.  I hope I'm wrong but and maybe I'll look before I go to bed, but maybe its just better to just have a beer and hit the rack.

 

That's usually the best policy in these situations.....though I mostly hit the sack, not the rack. Will try that next time, though

[pscz1140]

The NAM has joined Team Canada. Shows more snow Tuesday night/Wednesday morning for much of Western WA.

 

It's a Festivus Miracle!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow, some of these readings from E. Oregon are really impressive.

 

Joseph -16

Meacham -14

La Grande -10

Baker CIty -6

Pendleton 1

[Perturbed Member]

Wow, some of these readings from E. Oregon are really impressive.

 

Joseph -16

Meacham -14

La Grande -10

Baker CIty -6

Pendleton 1

 

 

I think GFS had a low of 17 at Pendleton and 11F at Meacham. Pretty ridiculous temps on the other side of the mountains.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Eugene reporting ZR and 31 degrees at 4am.

[WeatherArchive]

I'm going to take a zzzzzzzzzzz but not the r part.

[WeatherArchive]

Eugene reporting ZR and 31 degrees at 4am.

same temps

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

06z and 12z nam still look great for puget sound. There looks to be some convergence in central sound that just sticks around. Looks very nice.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Still has it snowing around Seattle at 10pm christmas night.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Hard to believe the nam is correct as far as snow lingering into tuesday morning.

[jaya]

Looking at early meso models for the Seattle metro area: trace near water to 3 most areas Arlington or Everett southward to Tacoma with a couple locations getting a 4-5 (highest hills and some higher terrain east of Seattle. The area south of Seattle will be flirting with temperatures too warm for a period of time during the middle of the system.  The NWS forecast looks quite appropriate at this time.

 

While the winter weather weenies will be disappointed in the snowfall amounts, it does look like many in the Puget Sound region will see a White Christmas.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Wednesday morning looks like maybe another little shot of some snow still as well.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Went from 24 to 32 pretty quickly last night. Mixing is strong here .

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This is looking like a decent event for some of you up north. Just took a peak at the NAM. Wow! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Very light freezing rain now falling and 30. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

That is one thing I don't envy about Oregon posters... The amount of zr you guys get.

 

Talk about nothing but a headache.

Agreed... I do feel bad for them!! Freezing rain sucks big time. Nothing but a devastation monster...

[Timmy]

That is one thing I don't envy about Oregon posters... The amount of zr you guys get.

 

Talk about nothing but a headache.

there is a 850mb warm tongue over western Washington currently as well.

[The Swamp]

there is a 850mb warm tongue over western Washington currently as well.

You are a real jerk Timmy.

[Geos]

12z NAM brings a system in on Tuesday night that drops another inch or two across Western WA.

Sounds good to me. From convergence maybe...

Sitting at 27 right now.

 

3km NAM totals a bit more than the 12km

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017122412/namconus_asnow_nwus_16

[Timmy]

FWIW the hrrr is pretty dry and has a double barrel low one on the central Oregon coast. It actually shows the first band being snow for pdx. Hardly any precip over the sound through the next 18 hours.

[FroYoBro]

It is half a notch under 32 with a dew point of 20. Looks like light freezing rain is coming our way.

[Randyc321]

FWIW the hrrr is pretty dry and has a double barrel low one on the central Oregon coast. It actually shows the first band being snow for pdx. Hardly any precip over the sound through the next 18 hours.

 

You truly do not want us to get snow, do you?  Wow.  Merry Christmas to you too.

[TT-SEA]

FWIW the hrrr is pretty dry and has a double barrel low one on the central Oregon coast. It actually shows the first band being snow for pdx. Hardly any precip over the sound through the next 18 hours.

 

12Z GFS looks drier overall as well.  

[HighlandExperience]

Looking at early meso models for the Seattle metro area: trace near water to 3 most areas Arlington or Everett southward to Tacoma with a couple locations getting a 4-5 (highest hills and some higher terrain east of Seattle. The area south of Seattle will be flirting with temperatures too warm for a period of time during the middle of the system. The NWS forecast looks quite appropriate at this time.

 

While the winter weather weenies will be disappointed in the snowfall amounts, it does look like many in the Puget Sound region will see a White Christmas.

.

 

Sounds good to me

[TT-SEA]

Dewpoint of 13 right now at SEA. 

 

I think the models underestimated how dry the air would be going into this event and are just catching up now.  

 

Typical problem around here... air mass is too dry for precipitation.   

[Timmy]

You truly do not want us to get snow, do you? Wow. Merry Christmas to you too.

Just observing what the models show.

[HighlandExperience]

12z GFS cut back further on precip amounts. Front looks fairly paltry as it moves inland. Still showing 1-2 inches though for most of the Puget Sound area.

Watch euro come in with biggest snow totals lol

[MossMan]

Had a low of 21, cloudy and 24 now.

[Randyc321]

Dewpoint of 13 right now at SEA. 

 

I think the models underestimated how dry the air would be going into this event and are just catching up now.  

 

Typical problem around here... air mass is too dry for precipitation.   

 

 

Not that low over here...

[Timmy]

CMC is back to a bullish solution for pdx snow and a double barrel. Well hello prime minister