January Weather In the PNW

[Phil]

[Phil]

There is a cluster of colder EPS members now, FWIW.

 

Looks like 12/52 members, up from just 3/52 members back @ 12z.

[Phil]

Snowing in Morocco for the first time in 30 years. Lol.

[WeatherArchive]

Wha happens when you go all in?

Better out then in right?

[Farmboy]

Don’t get sucked in, man. False retrogressions in the modeling are commonplace when the PV column is displaced below 65N in Canada. Unless that motherf**ker gets taken out by a perfectly timed wave-2, its looking pretty grim.

Why didn't you just say this (or something to it's affect) last fall instead of going on and on about a 3 week blast...? As rare occurrences as ssw's are, didn't you forsee this scenario happening?

[luvssnow_spokane]

But you said winter was over?

I did?? Where? I said I felt our chance, or the best blocking placement will be in March and late February. IMO I do prefer earlier winter events as I’m not a big fan As they often become more slop fest then anything else, but I’ll take what I can get.

 

In the end I’m not sure why you care what I post because it’s just my lame, uneducated opinion. But I never once said winter was over. I really did think DJs post was funny though! .

 

The main point of my posts(that you elude too) was a rebuttal due to the fact that some people were so convinced that what the models are showing 10 days out would occur. So, many of my posts were laced with quite a bit of sarcasm. I personally just did not buy it, it was my own opinion and analysis. I would never say my opinion or analysis was right and set in stone. In fact it’s very likely to be wrong. I enjoy the weather, I enjoy learning about it, but I’m not an expert And will never claim to be.

[TT-SEA]

I did?? Where? I said I felt our chance, or the best blocking placement will be in March and late February. IMO I do prefer earlier winter events as I’m not a big fan As they often become more slot then anything else, but I’ll take what I can get.

 

In the end I’m not sure why you care what I post because it’s just my lame, uneducated opinion. But I never once said winter was over. I really did think DJs post was funny though! .

 

The main point of my posts was a rebuttal due to the fact that some people were so convinced that what the models are showing 10 days out would occur. So many of my posts were laced with quite a bit of sarcasm. I personally just did not buy it, it was my own opinion and analysis. I would never say my opinion or analysis was right and set in stone. In fact it’s very likely to be wrong. I enjoy the weather, I enjoy learning about it, but I’m not an expert And will never claim to be.

 

 

There are 29 days left of meteorological winter.   

[luvssnow_spokane]

There are 29 days left of meteorological winter.

Yep... good point

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Block is much more upright at hour 180, allowing the cold air in Canada to dig further in our direction.

 

Interesting to see the 12z. The 06 and its ensembles were not good.

[TT-SEA]

Block is much more upright at hour 180, allowing the cold air in Canada to dig further in our direction.

 

12Z GFS is not nearly as good at the 500mb level at 210 hours compared to the 00Z run.   

 

The CONUS images are updating faster than the North America view.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS and 12Z GEM are significantly worse than their respective 00Z runs at 240 hours.   

 

12Z GEM is a little better overall... 12Z GFS is not even close.

 

Here is the 00Z GFS at 240 hours:

 

 

 

And the new 12Z GFS at the same time:

 

[Timmy]

12Z GFS and 12Z GEM are significantly worse than their respective 00Z runs at 240 hours.

 

12Z GEM is a little better overall... 12Z GFS is not even close.

. He’s back and well!

[Timmy]

And while the 12z runs aren’t as good, they are not, not close. Arctic air is right on the wa/ca boarder at hr 264, and a fairly significant winter weather setup thereafter

[TT-SEA]

But... the 12Z GFS does get closer on day 11:

 

[TT-SEA]

And while the 12z runs aren’t as good, they are not, not close. Arctic air is right on the wa/ca boarder at hr 264

 

Amazingly... the block is alive and well at day 11.   Just like me!  

 

That is one persistent block.   As long as it remains in place... there will be opportunities.  

[Timmy]

This

[TT-SEA]

This

 

Yeah... the 12Z GFS is so close after day 10 and it quickly goes from crap at day 10 to really decent at day 11.  

 

Hard to believe that the same blocking is still in play that far out.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

We have been watching this day ten deal since early december!!  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Definitely some potential. But we've said that a lot this winter.

[HighlandExperience]

We have been watching this day ten deal since early december!!

In ten days will be talking about how great it will be in ten days. It’s actually sunny today. Starting to think of nice weather.

[jcmcgaffey]

Another interesting stat... SEA has had rain on 23 out of the last 24 days. That one dry day on the 14th broke up the streak or we would be approaching the January 2006 record for consecutive days with rain by next week.

. What was the rain streak before the 14th?

[TT-SEA]

. What was the rain streak before the 14th?

 

It has rained every day since January 4th with the exception of the 14th.    SEA is almost 3 inches above normal for the month through yesterday.   SEA is also over 6 inches above normal for the water year which begins on 10/1... a total of almost 27 inches of rain in that time.   

 

I am actually not entirely sure it will rain at SEA today.   It all depends on the exact placement of the rain shadow this afternoon and evening.   

[jcmcgaffey]

It has rained every day since January 4th with the exception of the 14th. SEA is almost 3 inches above normal for the month through yesterday. SEA is also over 6 inches above normal for the water year which begins on 10/1... a total of almost 27 inches of rain in that time.

 

I am actually not entirely sure it will rain at SEA today. It all depends on the exact placement of the rain shadow this afternoon and evening.

Ya it is definetly looking iffy today for rain. I just recently read that this is the wettest 4yr period in the history of Seattle record keeping which goes back before 1900.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I am 14.05 inches of rain since Jan1. Lake cushman is 24 inches, places on the west side of the Olympics are around 27 inches. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It has rained every day since January 4th with the exception of the 14th.    SEA is almost 3 inches above normal for the month through yesterday.   SEA is also over 6 inches above normal for the water year which begins on 10/1... a total of almost 27 inches of rain in that time.   

 

I am actually not entirely sure it will rain at SEA today.   It all depends on the exact placement of the rain shadow this afternoon and evening.   

 

For some reason I did not realize how wet the past few years have been. I think 2013 was so exceptionally dry down here and then the following summers so hot that it just kind of seemed like we were heading into some kind of drought.

 

But the 2014-17 was above average at pretty much every station in NW Oregon. Not as anomalously as Seattle, but you are correct it has been a wet stretch. I haven't really noticed that much. I mean yes there have been some crazy wet stretches such as February/March 2017, but it has been wet in the wet season a dry during the dry season for the most part.

 

Interestingly the record setting wet September 2013 was the only above average precip month in much of NW Oregon during the incredibly dry 2013. If that month had just had average precip, many locations would have smashed their record for driest year on record. As was, I believe some locations down here did still have their driest year on record in 2013. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some ensemble improvement.

[TT-SEA]

For some reason I did not realize how wet the past few years have been. I think 2013 was so exceptionally dry down here and then the following summers so hot that it just kind of seemed like we were heading into some kind of drought.

 

But the 2014-17 was above average at pretty much every station in NW Oregon. Not as anomalously as Seattle, but you are correct it has been a wet stretch. I haven't really noticed that much. I mean yes there have been some crazy wet stretches such as February/March 2017, but it has been wet in the wet season a dry during the dry season for the most part.

 

Interestingly the record setting wet September 2013 was the only above average precip month in much of NW Oregon during the incredibly dry 2013. If that month had just had average precip, many locations would have smashed their record for driest year on record. As was, I believe some locations down here did still have their driest year on record in 2013. 

 

SEA has had 2 consecutive wettest years on record and is off to a roaring start this year.   Its been crazy wet up here overall since 2014.

[ShawniganLake]

This will easily be the wettest January since 2006 at Shawnigan Lake.

[TT-SEA]

12z Euro sure is a thing of beauty... (insert extremely needed vomit emoji here)

Yeah... the block and all the cold air is gone by day 9.

 

Good for those wanting more rain though.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

12z Euro sure is a thing of beauty... (insert extremely needed vomit emoji here)

It is actually similar to the one last night at the same hour.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah... the block and all the cold air is gone by day 9.

 

Good for those wanting more rain though.

 

We NEED the rain...

 

Something I was thinking about in reference to our conversation on the above average precipitation the past few years. I have not looked, but I would be willing to wager that in the same timeframe 2014-17 snowpack has been below if not well below average in the PNW. I could be wrong, but it does seem like it has been a lot of warm/mild rain. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

It is actually similar to the one last night at the same hour.

But not at hour 240, unfortunately.

[jcmcgaffey]

Nice little hail storm here in north seattle.

[TT-SEA]

We NEED the rain...

 

Something I was thinking about in reference to our conversation on the above average precipitation the past few years. I have not looked, but I would be willing to wager that in the same timeframe 2014-17 snowpack has been below if not well below average in the PNW. I could be wrong, but it does seem like it has been a lot of warm/mild rain. 

 

Actually... you are saying that we need snow.    The pattern over the next 10 days in not real good for that unfortunately.    

 

Here is the snowfall map from the 12Z ECMWF over the next 10 days total:

 

 

 

So I guess the upcoming pattern is really good for those wanting more mild, warm front type light rain.     Those people will be very happy.   

[jcmcgaffey]

Nice little hail storm here in north seattle.

really coming down now.

[Deweydog]

Dew point down to 39 at PDX.

[BLI snowman]

I wonder if we'll see another freeze this winter?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Decent convective cell overhead with pea size hail.

[Geos]

Nice view of the backside of that hail cell leaving Seattle on my camera.

 

http://map.bloomsky.com/weather-stations/gqBxp6apnJSnqqm2

 

Totem Lake camera right now. 

 

[TT-SEA]

For those following the EPS... here is the 10-15 day blended 850mb temp mean.   It really does not change much from day 10 to 15 either.