January Weather In the PNW

[Phil]

This could be headed for being one of the stronger La Ninas on record. The SSTs are already tanked and we are entering a monster trade wind burst now. To think the models earlier in 2017 showed a Nino for this winter. Unquestionably the worst model performance I've ever seen for ENSO.

This Niña will barely crack moderate at best, but the primary cell networks are becoming more west based now, which will become evident next month in the longwave pattern.

[TT-SEA]

It's just pointless for people to give up in early January the recent models, huge tropical shakeup, and the general players we have on the table this season. I feel like I'm in the Twilight Zone when I see the attitudes on here.

Whatever happens will happen. You don't control it either. You have hyped things many times in the past have been wrong and people have been disappointed. It is what it is.

 

What people see now is a mild pattern that is going to get even warmer in a week.

 

Maybe in 3 weeks it will be snowy but we don't know that yet.    We are in the heart of winter right now and it looks mild so expect some doubters.   This is not November.  

[snow_wizard]

This Niña will barely crack moderate at best, but the primary cell networks are becoming more west based now, which will become evident next month in the longwave pattern.

 

I was just reacting to seeing Nina 3 going below -1.5.  I should have looked deeper before I posted that.

[Phil]

Also... Phil has said the off-equator warmth is messing with the effects of this Nina. Still warm off our coast as well.

 

Which should change when the QBO flips @ 50mb, but for whatever reason it refuses to get the job done. At least for the time being.

 

Which means it will happen during spring..gonna be a nasty tornado season over the Plains this spring with the Rockies trough/SE-ridge combo.

[TT-SEA]

Which should change when the QBO flips @ 50mb, but for whatever reason it refuses to get the job done. At least for the time being.

 

Which means it will happen during spring..gonna be a nasty tornado season this spring with the Rockies trough/SE-ridge combo.

 

I fully expect a March - May full of 45-degree rainy days.

 

There will probably lots of posts about how great this pattern would have been in the middle of winter.   <_>

[Phil]

We can barely handle an inch in most major cities around here. 5 feet would cripple everything.

You don’t want 5 feet. Trust me. We had an experience like that during 2010, where 5-6+ feet fell over parts of MD within a period of ~ 12 days. Farmers were literally paid to have snow dumped on their lands because there was no place to put it. Roof cave ins, motorists abandoning cars and dying. It was a bit much.

[crf450ish]

It's just pointless for people to give up in early January the recent models, huge tropical shakeup, and the general players we have on the table this season. I feel like I'm in the Twilight Zone when I see the attitudes on here.

I’ve been following this forum since 2009. I’ve seen the same thing Every. Single. Winter. Lots of folks wishcast themselves into a mentally unhealthy fantasy world where they foresee the Puget Sound area getting an east coast type winter. Then when the models don’t deliver what they are convinced is going to happen, they get depressed and spill their aching hearts out on here. It’s just reality. The select few maintain a mindset in line with reality and climo. It is what it is. I respect your research because you put allot of effort into what you do (like your NPS index). Phil also maintains a reality mindset it seems and he doesn’t freak out when he’s wrong. It’s like going to the casino, you might win and you might not (you’re more then likely not going to).

 

Honestly, it’s very bizarre to see people so happy and ready for winter every October into November. Then by January, if nothing that meets their expectations has happened, they just get all depressed. I used to be like that. Then I moved to a place where the climate is more befitting to my standards. I realize not everyone can just up and move...... being trapped due to finances is a really sucky thing. My wife and I are about to sell our amazing house because at the old age of 30, we’re both realizing that being a slave to our mortgage is not something we want. We want to be free and work and use the money for what we want..... not what society has programmed us to believe we need since an early age. Dancing around the country in a class A diesel pusher mtorohome that paid for is much more attractive than slaving away to pay a mortgage with no end in sight. That’s my $0.02....

[Phil]

If Erie PA can break snowfall records then it can happen here again in the NW. It could be this winter or next winter but eventually it will happen. Records are meant to be broken because weather extremes happen yearly.

Eventually there will be another January 1950. Heck, eventually Seattle will be buried under a mile of ice.

 

The question is when? It might be next year, it might be in fifty years. It might be a thousand years. We won’t know until it happens.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

You don’t want 5 feet. Trust me. We had an experience like that during 2010, where 5-6+ feet fell over parts of MD within a period of ~ 12 days. Farmers were literally paid to have snow dumped on their lands because there was no place to put it. Roof cave ins, motorists abandoning cars and dying. It was a bit much.

We get a lot of snow here, and when it gets over 3 feet, it does become harder to handle.  It gets harder for my snowblower to plow my driveway, because the piles of snow off to the side are quite high (both the snow that has fallen and the snow that I have blown there from the driveway), and you can get to the point where it can't blow it high enough to clear the driveway.  Also, though they plow our streets, the streets became very narrow, and visibility became an issue when you backed out of the driveway.  Our construction rules require our roofs to be able to handle a lot of snow, but not sure Western Washington roofs would handle that.  Flat roofs could have serious problems, though sloped roofs the snow would slide off.  And then when it slides off, the pile of snow that has slid off can reach the bottom edge of the roof and block any windows from the house.  But I'm sure all the people on the west side would love to experience that problem at least once.  I will say, as much as I love the snow, I do look forward to Spring after while.  Not there yet this year though, bring on more snow!

[Phil]

I was just reacting to seeing Nina 3 going below -1.5. I should have looked deeper before I posted that.

Yeah, short term fluctuations are common with variations in wind/eddies/etc. Sustaining this for extended periods of time requires a stronger low frequency zonal mode of operation.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I’ve been following this forum since 2009. I’ve seen the same thing Every. Single. Winter. Lots of folks wishcast themselves into a mentally unhealthy fantasy world where they foresee the Puget Sound area getting an east coast type winter. Then when the models don’t deliver what they are convinced is going to happen, they get depressed and spill their aching hearts out on here. It’s just reality. The select few maintain a mindset in line with reality and climo. It is what it is. I respect your research because you put allot of effort into what you do (like your NPS index). Phil also maintains a reality mindset it seems and he doesn’t freak out when he’s wrong. It’s like going to the casino, you might win and you might not (you’re more then likely not going to).

Honestly, it’s very bizarre to see people so happy and ready for winter every October into November. Then by January, if nothing that meets their expectations has happened, they just get all depressed. I used to be like that. Then I moved to a place where the climate is more befitting to my standards. I realize not everyone can just up and move...... being trapped due to finances is a really sucky thing. My wife and I are about to sell our amazing house because at the old age of 30, we’re both realizing that being a slave to our mortgage is not something we want. We want to be free and work and use the money for what we want..... not what society has programmed us to believe we need since an early age. Dancing around the country in a class A diesel pusher mtorohome that paid for is much more attractive than slaving away to pay a mortgage with no end in sight. That’s my $0.02....

Some of us on here have been around to see winters like 85 89 1990 and a couple from the 70's. It can and has been very cold and snowy here. 1990 was as snowy and almost as cold as the bomb cyclone the East just had. I see your point though.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Like what phil said 5 feet is to much unleds you really have some heavy duty equipment. When i had a place a lake cushman it snowed 28 inches in like 18 hrs on top of foot we had and just walking to the garage to get the snow shovel was not easy lol. 2 feet is a perfect amount to male everything pretty but still be able yo get around. Anything over that it starts getting tough. Also has alot to do with thw type of snow. Walking thru 2 feet if snow like at my cabin is easy because its so light and dry. Walking thru 2 feet on this side of the mountains is like waling thru wet concrete.

[HighlandExperience]

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

We get a lot of snow here, and when it gets over 3 feet, it does become harder to handle.  It gets harder for my snowblower to plow my driveway, because the piles of snow off to the side are quite high (both the snow that has fallen and the snow that I have blown there from the driveway), and you can get to the point where it can't blow it high enough to clear the driveway.  Also, though they plow our streets, the streets became very narrow, and visibility became an issue when you backed out of the driveway.  Our construction rules require our roofs to be able to handle a lot of snow, but not sure Western Washington roofs would handle that.  Flat roofs could have serious problems, though sloped roofs the snow would slide off.  And then when it slides off, the pile of snow that has slid off can reach the bottom edge of the roof and block any windows from the house.  But I'm sure all the people on the west side would love to experience that problem at least once.  I will say, as much as I love the snow, I do look forward to Spring after while.  Not there yet this year though, bring on more snow!

What is your current depth and what is your all time mac depth?

[Deweydog]

An acute five feet of snow would be an awesome spectacle here on the westside, both for weather and mass casualty/property damage weenies.

[snow_wizard]

We could be onto something here.  The ECMWF ensemble and the GFS suite of models agree on a big ULL beginning to carve out off the coast of Asia by the 20th or so.  If that feature becomes pronounced it will pump up a big block ahead of it and we will be in business.

 

Also interesting to note Jan 1996 (a bit before things got good) was an analog on the 12z GFS.  That is a really good analog from an ENSO, solar, and observed weather aspect.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

What is your current depth and what is your all time mac depth?

We have about 13-14 inches, the winter sports club on the other side of town reports 15 inches.  Not a huge amount, but it is a solid base, since that is based on about 25 inches or so.  I have lived here since 2013, and last winter at one point we had very close to a 36 inch base on the ground.  At that time it had probably snowed close to 90 inches overall (we ended up with about 109 inches), but with compacting, evaporation, melting, etc., it was at 36 inches, but a very solid 36 inches that you could walk on and not sink in that much.   I know other winters they have had far more, and some far less.

[snow_wizard]

You don’t want 5 feet. Trust me. We had an experience like that during 2010, where 5-6+ feet fell over parts of MD within a period of ~ 12 days. Farmers were literally paid to have snow dumped on their lands because there was no place to put it. Roof cave ins, motorists abandoning cars and dying. It was a bit much.

 

I kind of agree.  I think a truly enjoyable winter is one where you have 6 to 18 inches of snow on the ground with an abundance of cold / clear weather.  I have mentioned before I think 1928-29 might have been the best winter of the 20th century for my area.  Just a perfect match to the criteria I just stated.  I would certainly take 1915-16 or 1949-50 though!

[snow_wizard]

We have about 13-14 inches, the winter sports club on the other side of town reports 15 inches.  Not a huge amount, but it is a solid base, since that is based on about 25 inches or so.  I have lived here since 2013, and last winter at one point we had very close to a 36 inch base on the ground.  At that time it had probably snowed close to 90 inches overall (we ended up with about 109 inches), but with compacting, evaporation, melting, etc., it was at 36 inches, but a very solid 36 inches that you could walk on and not sink in that much.   I know other winters they have had far more, and some far less.

 

I hate to be selfish, but I'm kind of hoping your snow pack stays on the low side.  I have a mine up near Blewett Pass where I didn't have time to get the hillside above it stabilized well enough last fall.  A really snowy winter there could prove to be costly for me.  To me 13 or 14 inches would be perfect.

[Front Ranger]

I’ve been following this forum since 2009. I’ve seen the same thing Every. Single. Winter. Lots of folks wishcast themselves into a mentally unhealthy fantasy world where they foresee the Puget Sound area getting an east coast type winter. Then when the models don’t deliver what they are convinced is going to happen, they get depressed and spill their aching hearts out on here. It’s just reality. The select few maintain a mindset in line with reality and climo. It is what it is. I respect your research because you put allot of effort into what you do (like your NPS index). Phil also maintains a reality mindset it seems and he doesn’t freak out when he’s wrong. It’s like going to the casino, you might win and you might not (you’re more then likely not going to).

 

But to be fair and honest, Phil was one of the biggest hype machines on here leading up to the winter. Talking about 3 week Arctic blasts, etc - things that don't go along with PNW climo at all. Not sure it makes much sense to single him out as one of the "select few" grounded in reality. 

[Jesse]

The onset of a more Niña-like pattern mid month still looks to be on track, more or less.

[Deweydog]

We have about 13-14 inches, the winter sports club on the other side of town reports 15 inches. Not a huge amount, but it is a solid base, since that is based on about 25 inches or so. I have lived here since 2013, and last winter at one point we had very close to a 36 inch base on the ground. At that time it had probably snowed close to 90 inches overall (we ended up with about 109 inches), but with compacting, evaporation, melting, etc., it was at 36 inches, but a very solid 36 inches that you could walk on and not sink in that much. I know other winters they have had far more, and some far less.

96-97 was absolutely unreal on the east slopes. My boss over there lived in Conconully which is just NW of Omak. He had a picture album from that winter alone and the amount of snow in the valley was staggering.

[Front Ranger]

An acute five feet of snow would be an awesome spectacle here on the westside, both for weather and mass casualty/property damage weenies.

 

Didn't Victoria have like 5' in Dec 1996? I don't remember mass casualties from that...

[Deweydog]

Didn't Victoria have like 5' in Dec 1996? I don't remember mass casualties from that...

Canadians are not organic lifeforms.

[Phil]

We get a lot of snow here, and when it gets over 3 feet, it does become harder to handle. It gets harder for my snowblower to plow my driveway, because the piles of snow off to the side are quite high (both the snow that has fallen and the snow that I have blown there from the driveway), and you can get to the point where it can't blow it high enough to clear the driveway. Also, though they plow our streets, the streets became very narrow, and visibility became an issue when you backed out of the driveway. Our construction rules require our roofs to be able to handle a lot of snow, but not sure Western Washington roofs would handle that. Flat roofs could have serious problems, though sloped roofs the snow would slide off. And then when it slides off, the pile of snow that has slid off can reach the bottom edge of the roof and block any windows from the house. But I'm sure all the people on the west side would love to experience that problem at least once. I will say, as much as I love the snow, I do look forward to Spring after while. Not there yet this year though, bring on more snow!

Yeah, most of the roofs/structures around here weren’t designed with multifoot blizzards in mind. They haven’t been a frequent occurrence until the last 20yrs or so.

 

We got these monster blizzards back in the 1600s/1700s all the time, but they became more infrequent with time thereafter, and were almost nonexistent from the 1960s through the early 1990s. Only recently have they returned.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

96-97 was absolutely unreal on the east slopes. My boss over there lived in Conconully which is just NW of Omak. He had a picture album from that winter alone and the amount of snow in the valley was staggering.

160 inches that winter, an unreal (for us) 93 inches in December alone, which is close to the overall average for an entire winter.   Looking at the WRCC site, it is the single snowiest month ever recorded here, though there are a lot of missing/incomplete months and some missing years.  Even more snow in December 1996 than in January 1968 or 1950!  

[TT-SEA]

96-97 was absolutely unreal on the east slopes. My boss over there lived in Conconully which is just NW of Omak. He had a picture album from that winter alone and the amount of snow in the valley was staggering.

 

 

Never heard of Conconully... had to look it up.    Looks like a gorgeous place.

 

[snow_wizard]

160 inches that winter, an unreal (for us) 93 inches in December alone, which is close to the overall average for an entire winter.   Looking at the WRCC site, it is the single snowiest month ever recorded here, though there are a lot of missing/incomplete months and some missing years.  Even more snow in December 1996 than in January 1968 or 1950!  

 

Yeah...over there cold air isn't nearly as big a factor as moisture.

[Phil]

[snow_wizard]

Yeah, most of the roofs/structures around here weren’t designed with multifoot blizzards in mind. They haven’t been a frequent occurrence until the last 20yrs or so.

 

We got these monster blizzards back in the 1600s/1700s all the time, but they became more infrequent with time thereafter, and were almost nonexistent from the 1960s through the early 1990s. Only recently have they returned.

 

I would love to have records from this area for the 1600s especially.  All we have is some anecdotal evidence from Indian lore that talks about insane snows in times before the white settlers arrived.

[Front Ranger]

The GFS ensemble mean looks fairly promising in the LR.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I hate to be selfish, but I'm kind of hoping your snow pack stays on the low side.  I have a mine up near Blewett Pass where I didn't have time to get the hillside above it stabilized well enough last fall.  A really snowy winter there could prove to be costly for me.  To me 13 or 14 inches would be perfect.

Wow Jim thats cool about the mine. Did you see the pics i posted of the old mine me and my son gound up by my cabin?

[Phil]

I kind of agree. I think a truly enjoyable winter is one where you have 6 to 18 inches of snow on the ground with an abundance of cold / clear weather. I have mentioned before I think 1928-29 might have been the best winter of the 20th century for my area. Just a perfect match to the criteria I just stated. I would certainly take 1915-16 or 1949-50 though!

This 100%. Unfortunately it’s much too windy here during Arctic events to sustain snowpack. The Appalachians ruin this climate in a lot of ways (both in summer and winter).

[snow_wizard]

The onset of a more Niña-like pattern mid month still looks to be on track, more or less.

 

Indeed!  Reason to be very optimistic about the second half of winter.  I can't think of a Nina winter that didn't have something the second half of the winter if December had at least some kind of a decent event.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

96-97 was absolutely unreal on the east slopes. My boss over there lived in Conconully which is just NW of Omak. He had a picture album from that winter alone and the amount of snow in the valley was staggering.

Indeed, some of the old timers told me 96 was crazy up near chesaw as well. That area around Conconully can really get cold and snowy as well as winthrop and stay along time. That is my first pic in the state for a location to live as far as climate but property is double or triple the price compared to where i purchased. I pd 155k for 160 acres. I would bet you would be over 500 easy for that over there.

[snow_wizard]

Wow Jim thats cool about the mine. Did you see the pics i posted of the old mine me and my son gound up by my cabin?

 

I saw those.  Looks like it was a serious operation.  Might be fun to check out some of the ore you might find around there.

[Phil]

But to be fair and honest, Phil was one of the biggest hype machines on here leading up to the winter. Talking about 3 week Arctic blasts, etc - things that don't go along with PNW climo at all. Not sure it makes much sense to single him out as one of the "select few" grounded in reality.

Yeah, I was, but I honestly thought I was on the correct path and would verify. West-Pacific > Phil.

 

Your cold January call is in huge trouble, though.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Never heard of Conconully... had to look it up.    Looks like a gorgeous place.

 

Pic a weekend and take your family and explore that area Tim. Just a beautiful area. Take a drive up to slate peak it's the highest road in Washington and is breathtakingly awesome.

[snow_wizard]

Indeed, some of the old timers told me 96 was crazy up near chesaw as well. That area around Conconully can really get cold and snowy as well as winthrop and stay along time. That is my first pic in the state for a location to live as far as climate but property is double or triple the price compared to where i purchased. I pd 155k for 160 acres. I would bet you would be over 500 easy for that over there.

 

You seriously got 160 acres for that little?  Amazing!  I'm shocked Winthrop is so much more expensive.  It's pretty hard to get to (distance wise) in the winter with the North Cascades closed.

 

You are correct about the northern third of Central and Eastern WA having very cold winters.  It's in a different class than the southern half of WA and Eastern OR, in spite of Eastern OR getting colder extreme mins in some cases.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I saw those.  Looks like it was a serious operation.  Might be fun to check out some of the ore you might find around there.

I am only 3 miles from buck mountain gold mine and i believe it is the biggest producing gold mine in the state. People have told me whenever you dig into the ground for any reason to pan a sample because you never know.