January Weather In the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Thought I would mention (for Tim), that yesterday was the warmest day up here since November 23rd. Hit 52 for a high. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Also trending stronger with the west coast ridge later next week. Probably going to be another strong push of arctic air east of the Rockies.

 

Looks like a bitter blast into the center of the nation. A few days ago that period was looking rather mild.

[TT-SEA]

Thought I would mention (for Tim), that yesterday was the warmest day up here since November 23rd. Hit 52 for a high. 

 

Warmer than it was here yesterday!   Congratulations. 

[TT-SEA]

Looks like a bitter blast into the center of the nation. A few days ago that period was looking rather mild.

 

Indeed...

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My kids have been sounding like some of the people on this forum complaining about the dry cold. They have only had a brief dusting of snow so far this winter, but lots of dry cold including highs in the upper teens on New Year's. They want snow though, as mom won't let them play outside in the cold if there is no snow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 12z is dramatically different than the 06z in terms of placement and penetration of the arctic airmass. Sub-492 thickness into the upper midwest on the 12z. Yikes. 

[TT-SEA]

My kids have been sounding like some of the people on this forum complaining about the dry cold. They have only had a brief dusting of snow so far this winter, but lots of dry cold including highs in the upper teens on New Year's. They want snow though, as mom won't let them play outside in the cold if there is no snow.

 

Its 32 and sunny in Tulsa right now.   She won't let them play outside??  

 

Even in the upper teens with sunshine should be great weather for kids playing outside.   That was a heat wave when I was a kid... my parents would force us outside on a warm day like that. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Its 32 and sunny in Tulsa right now.   She won't let them play outside??  

 

32, no way. Maybe if it was in the 50s. She's a little overprotective about that. They have a nice 1.5 acre fenced backyard at their new house too, so its kind of a shame. 

[TT-SEA]

32, no way. Maybe if it was in the 50s. She's a little overprotective about that. They have a nice 1.5 acre fenced backyard at their new house too, so its kind of a shame. 

 

A "little" overprotective?   32 and sunny and they have to stay inside?   That is terrible.    You would not even need a jacket.  

 

They will grow up and rebel against her.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Going to be interesting how the long range plays out on this run, but I can't imagine its going to turn out as well given the eastern troughing in the mid-range.

[Deweydog]

A "little" overprotective? 32 and sunny and they have to stay inside? That is terrible. You would not even need a jacket.

As long as they get plenty of fluids and have available shade, 32 and sunny should be just fine.

[Deweydog]

12z plays out my most recent #MLK forecast perfectly!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A "little" overprotective?   32 and sunny and they have to stay inside?   That is terrible.    You would not even need a jacket.  

 

They will grow up and rebel against her.   

 

In all fairness one of the twins got a really bad case of pneumonia last year and was hospitalized for over a week. So I think that plays into it, though they are otherwise very healthy.  

[TT-SEA]

As long as they get plenty of fluids and have available shade, 32 and sunny should be just fine.

 

My boys... even at a very young age... would have never been in the house on a sunny winter day in the 30s.    Snow or no snow.   They would be out in the woods building a fort or riding their bikes in sweatshirts and maybe a stocking cap.  

[TT-SEA]

In all fairness one of the twins got a really bad case of pneumonia last year and was hospitalized for over a week. So I think that plays into it, though they are otherwise very healthy.  

 

You don't get pneumonia from being outside on a calm, sunny day in the 30s.   

 

Every kid I knew growing up in MN would have been dead if that was true.    Everyone was outside on sunny winter days in the 30s in MN.   It was a treat.  

[Deweydog]

My boys... even at a very young age... would have never been in the house on a sunny winter day in the 30s. Snow or no snow. They would be out in the woods building a fort or riding their bikes in sweatshirts and maybe a stocking cap.

They're perfect in every way. Andrew should be ashamed of himself.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty solid mountain snow pattern sets up around the 17th regardless...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

You don't get pneumonia from being outside on a calm, sunny day in the 30s.   

 

Every kid I knew growing up in MN would have been dead if that was true.    Everyone was outside on sunny winter days in the 30s in MN.   It was a treat.  

 

I mean technically you are right, but I honestly thought you were joking at first. I don't think it is super unreasonable to not want your pre-school age kids playing outside in sub-freezing temps. IMO

[TT-SEA]

I mean technically you are right, but I honestly thought you were joking at first. I don't think it is super unreasonable to not want your pre-school age kids playing outside in sub-freezing temps. IMO

 

I guess if they are really young.   I was thinking they were in elementary school now.    How about your older daughter?   Does she get to go outside?

[TT-SEA]

Pretty solid mountain snow pattern sets up around the 17th regardless...

 

Seems like it keeps getting pushed back.  Although, it has to come eventually regardless of what the models show.  

[Deweydog]

I have always addressed the kids by thicknesses when it comes to playing outside during extreme weather.

 

"Get your asses in the house! Don't you realize 500-1000 millibar thicknesses are 529 decameters out there???"

[MossMan]

Latest PNA forecast in the extended is still looking good...

[ShawniganLake]

Seems like it keeps getting pushed back. Although, it has to come eventually regardless of what the models show.

Jet is looking a little less consolidated in the long range.

[snow_wizard]

It appears the GFS is showing some consistency and agrees with the ECMWF ensemble that things will be changing in a big way for the 10 to 15 day period.  Looking very promising and the solution perfectly lines up with what be expected with the projected progress of the MJO wave.  It's progressing very slowly so the pattern will have a lot of time to react and should result in a prolonged window of opportunity for us.

[snow_wizard]

I'm going to be very interested to see how the sky rocketing SOI = western trough theory plays out with this event.  If you are somebody who puts a lot of stock in the MJO you have to be optimistic about our chances.  I do know that Joe Bastardi (love him or hate him) puts a lot of stock in it.

[snow_wizard]

Latest PNA forecast in the extended is still looking good...

 

I'm thinking a full reversal like January 1996.

[stuffradio]

I'm going to be very interested to see how the sky rocketing SOI = western trough theory plays out with this event.  If you are somebody who puts a lot of stock in the MJO you have to be optimistic about our chances.  I do know that Joe Bastardi (love him or hate him) puts a lot of stock in it.

Well it was a SOI drop of ~10 that put the trough here, not sky rocketing SOI.

[stuffradio]

Here's what it looks like with the SOI rise

 

Here's what it looks like with the drop

[Deweydog]

This is quite the blast from the past. The SOI hasn't been discussed here in years.

 

#nowbringbacktheGLAAM!

[MossMan]

This is quite the blast from the past. The SOI hasn't been discussed here in years.

 

#nowbringbacktheGLAAM!

And the WHAAM!

[snow_wizard]

Well it was a SOI drop of ~10 that put the trough here, not sky rocketing SOI.

 

There was most likely a spike before the crash though.  Maybe a delayed reaction.  We want the atmosphere in a Nina state and high SOI is a Nina state.  To further dissect the SOI Western trough connection...nearly every time the Darwin pressure drops below 1000mb we have a huge pattern response (western trough).  I'm not sure if it will go 1000mb on this cycle, but it very well could.  At any rate the high SOI episodes caused by very low pressure over Darwin seem to be more effective than ones caused by very high pressure over Tahiti.

[snow_wizard]

I feel like I'm being made fun of here.  I guess my input isn't valued any longer.  It's undeniable a huge pattern shift is coming.

 

BTW I wasn't referring to stuffradio.

[MossMan]

Currently 43 and light rain. Wish it was 23 with snow from this annoying pscz.

[Deweydog]

I feel like I'm being made fun of here. I guess my input isn't valued any longer. It's undeniable a huge pattern shift is coming.

 

BTW I wasn't referring to stuffradio.

Utterly unavoidably undeniable.

[MossMan]

I feel like I'm being made fun of here. I guess my input isn't valued any longer. It's undeniable a huge pattern shift is coming.

 

BTW I wasn't referring to stuffradio.

It’s looking fairly likely we finally see a pattern change for the last half of the month...just hoping it will be enough to push us into arctic territory.

[TT-SEA]

All the hype over this winter will come to a head in the next couple weeks... for better or worse.

[HighlandExperience]

All the hype over this winter will come to a head in the next couple weeks... for better or worse.

January 15th thru feb 15th will make or break this winter.

[TT-SEA]

Sure has not been impressive here yet... going to be the middle of January with just over 10 inches of snow and only a handful of days with snow on the ground.

[stuffradio]

January 15th thru feb 15th will make or break this winter.

January 15th through March 21 will make or break this winter.

[Deweydog]

Next winter might end up pretty decent.