January Weather In the PNW

[MossMan]

The mother-load of cold air is about to drop apon us just after hour 384!

[MossMan]

If things trend just a little more favorable mid week next week that will be our warning shot...with the motherload smashing us a week or so later...it’s about to get good! Real good!

 

Currently cloudy and 50 degrees.

[ShawniganLake]

The mother-load of cold air is about to drop apon us just after hour 384!

FWIW, at day 16, the blocking looks pretty ragged.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

The mother-load of cold air is about to drop apon us just after hour 384!

 

The mother-load of cold air is about to drop apon us just after hour 384!

 

Wish it had the 850's, as it is hard to tell if there is a motherload of cold air there or not.  Also, the ECMWF monthly forecast for February just came out, not looking good for cold.

 

[MossMan]

FWIW, at day 16, the blocking looks pretty ragged.

That will improve in the days to come.

[HighlandExperience]

[MossMan]

http://q13fox.com/2018/01/03/hunker-down-next-3-months-will-be-cooler-and-wetter-than-normal/

 

“Q13 News Chief Meteorologist Walter Kelley said this just means the La Niña, that has been influencing our weather for the past couple months, is continuing into 2018.”

 

"It means through March we may still see a little lowland snow. Not big, giant, significant snow storms but an inch here and inch there," Kelley explained.

 

Walter Kelley says not to worry, we won’t have anything big the rest of winter. Guaranteed we will get slammed now.

[Phil]

True, he is the king weenie/troll here. Although spending months pumping us up for a historic Jananuary, then actually complaining about your real winter weather being “too cold” there after busting terribly for us comes off pretty clueless at best.

I made this video for you a few hours ago. We have a busted pipe somewhere in the bowels of our house, but it’s so cold that it hasn’t had the chance to go boom yet.

 

The water isn’t coming from the hose..it’s leaking from the opening out of the brick. We turned he heat on when we got home, obviously, and it must have melted some ice deeper in the piping, causing the leakage.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ciI7bySSt5E&feature=youtu.be&app=desktop

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

yuck we are finished

Well, if you believe the really long range Euro, you should look outside and see the 2 feet of snow on the ground at your house, and the temps in the low teens, because for weeks the long range Euro was showing exactly that for early January.  How did that work out?  Looks like a conflict between the weeklies and the monthlies.  Or maybe it is calling for a 2nd half blowtorch, with a colder first half.  Hard to say.   Yes, it would be better to see a really cold signal, but these really long range forecasts are not terribly reliable.  

[HighlandExperience]

Well, if you believe the really long range Euro, you should look outside and see the 2 feet of snow on the ground at your house, and the temps in the low teens, because for weeks the long range Euro was showing exactly that for early January. How did that work out? Looks like a conflict between the weeklies and the monthlies. Or maybe it is calling for a 2nd half blowtorch, with a colder first half. Hard to say. Yes, it would be better to see a really cold signal, but these really long range forecasts are not terribly reliable.

Right I do remember January looking awesome. I take it with a grain of salt but still not encouraging to see.

[Phil]

Well, Michael Ventrice doesn’t agree with my take on February. His MJO analogs basically call for another prolonged warm pool forcing event after a few weeks of +EPO/US blowtorching.

 

I’m not sure if/how he’s filtering his analogs for external parameters, though, so I’m not sure what to think.

[Winterdog]

That will improve in the days to come.

Did they recently open a Kool-Aid stand near your place?    There is nothing out there that shows anything but a cooler and wetter regime.  The ridging is all transitory and very little cold air in place to our north.  I think we are moving into a normal La Nina pattern that doesn't necessarily promise anything but lowland rain (possibly some lumpy) as far a we can see.

[Deweydog]

I made this video for you a few hours ago. We have a busted pipe somewhere in the bowels of our house, but it’s so cold that it hasn’t had the chance to go boom yet.

 

The water isn’t coming from the hose..it’s leaking from the opening out of the brick. We turned he heat on when we got home, obviously, and it must have melted some ice deeper in the piping, causing the leakage.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ciI7bySSt5E&feature=youtu.be&app=desktop

Don't talk about cold!

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

I made this video for you a few hours ago. We have a busted pipe somewhere in the bowels of our house, but it’s so cold that it hasn’t had the chance to go boom yet.

 

The water isn’t coming from the hose..it’s leaking from the opening out of the brick. We turned he heat on when we got home, obviously, and it must have melted some ice deeper in the piping, causing the leakage.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ciI7bySSt5E&feature=youtu.be&app=desktop

Sorry to see that, hopefully not too much damage.  There are detectors that can alert you via text, email, etc., anytime a parameter is met, like it detects water in the basement, or temps get too cold in the basement, or a water leak behind a dishwasher/clothes washer, a water leak where your hot water tank is, etc.  Can alert you before a lot of damage is done.  

 

https://www.amazon.com/s/ref=lp_486548011_nr_n_3?rh=n%3A486548011&ie=UTF8

[Jesse]

Don't talk s**t about cold!

You seem to speak pretty glowingly of February 1989.

[Phil]

True, he is the king weenie/troll here. Although spending months pumping us up for a historic Jananuary, then actually complaining about your real winter weather being “too cold” there after busting terribly for us comes off pretty clueless at best.

FWIW, I get what you’re saying.

 

However, I’m only complaining about this dry, snowless, pipe-bursting cold air (which I hate), and a blizzard that missed me, but delayed my flight anyway because my plane came from Philly. That’s something I think you’d be pissed off about too.

[Phil]

Sorry to see that, hopefully not too much damage. There are detectors that can alert you via text, email, etc., anytime a parameter is met, like it detects water in the basement, or temps get too cold in the basement, or a water leak behind a dishwasher/clothes washer, a water leak where your hot water tank is, etc. Can alert you before a lot of damage is done.

 

https://www.amazon.com/s/ref=lp_486548011_nr_n_3?rh=n%3A486548011&ie=UTF8

Thanks man. Definitely will look into that.

 

We do have a plumber coming tomorrow to (hopefully) avert what looks to be an impending disaster.

[Deweydog]

You seem to speak pretty glowingly of February 1989.

It was/would be awesome. Just as would be an August 1981 repeat only hotter and snowier.

 

Both can be a serious pain in the a** though.

 

#weeniesliveintherealworldtoo

[MossMan]

Did they recently open a Kool-Aid stand near your place? There is nothing out there that shows anything but a cooler and wetter regime. The ridging is all transitory and very little cold air in place to our north. I think we are moving into a normal La Nina pattern that doesn't necessarily promise anything but lowland rain (possibly some lumpy) as far a we can see.

My trusty gut!

[luvssnow_spokane]

My trusty gut!

Agreed... Even in the nearer term it is not horrible - NOT epic either, but I feel in the even longer range things could improve.

 

 

 

FANTASY ISLAND LAND

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Hrs 80-120 are something to watch.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Did they recently open a Kool-Aid stand near your place?    There is nothing out there that shows anything but a cooler and wetter regime.  The ridging is all transitory and very little cold air in place to our north.  I think we are moving into a normal La Nina pattern that doesn't necessarily promise anything but lowland rain (possibly some lumpy) as far a we can see.

Dude.

[Jesse]

It was/would be awesome. Just as would be an August 1981 repeat only hotter and snowier.

 

Both can be a serious pain in the a** though.

 

#weeniesliveintherealworldtoo

Sort of a no brainier.

 

Just like not complaining about cold to people who are aching for the interesting weather you spent months forecasting for them should be.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hrs 80-120 are something to watch.

 

There is some potential there I think for northern folks. 

[Jesse]

All I really see on the models is a lot of mildness in the near term and then some fantasy land 1,500’ snow levels.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

All I really see on the models is a lot of mildness in the near term and then some fantasy land 1,500’ snow levels.

 

The pattern setting up after the 17th has the most potential by far of anything we have seen this winter. It may not develop into anything exciting, but it could transition towards something better. The Christmas eve event was really pretty fluky and definitely the ceiling of what that pattern could have reasonably produced (Once it became apparent 99% of the cold air was sliding east.). Yeah the models are showing nothing exciting at face value, but we are seeing baby steps forward with almost every run, and knowing Nina climo we know this is when things are likely to enter a more Nina-Like forcing state. 

[Jesse]

The pattern setting up after the 17th has the most potential by far of anything we have seen this winter. It may not develop into anything exciting, but it could transition towards something better. The Christmas eve event was really pretty fluky and definitely the ceiling of what that pattern could have reasonably produced (Once it became apparent 99% of the cold air was sliding east.). Yeah the models are showing nothing exciting at face value, but we are seeing baby steps forward with almost every run, and knowing Nina climo we know this is when things are likely to enter a more Nina-Like forcing state.

I don’t necessarily disagree with any of this.

[umadbro]

I don't unnecessarily disagree with Andrew.

[Deweydog]

The pattern setting up after the 17th has the most potential by far of anything we have seen this winter. It may not develop into anything exciting, but it could transition towards something better. The Christmas eve event was really pretty fluky and definitely the ceiling of what that pattern could have reasonably produced (Once it became apparent 99% of the cold air was sliding east.). Yeah the models are showing nothing exciting at face value, but we are seeing baby steps forward with almost every run, and knowing Nina climo we know this is when things are likely to enter a more Nina-Like forcing state.

#aweekandahalfafterMLK

[Deweydog]

All I really see on the models is a lot of mildness in the near term and then some fantasy land 1,500’ snow levels.

Could end up okay for My Location but doesn't look too promising for my location.

[FroYoBro]

I hope it snows. 

[James Jones]

I don't unnecessarily disagree with Andrew.

 

Seems like Jesse gets to live rent-free in your head... nice deal.

[Jesse]

Seems like Jesse gets to live rent-free in your head... nice deal.

 

It’s decent here but there’s a lot of weird old Nazi memorabilia in the attic.

[umadbro]

Seems like Jesse gets to live rent-free in your head... nice deal.

Jealous much?

[Dave]

Where is the cold and snow?

[Deweydog]

I hope it snows.

Did you know that when it snows my eyes become large and the light that you shine can be seen?

[umadbro]

 

It’s decent here but there’s a lot of weird old Nazi memorabilia in the attic.

You can look, but you can't touch. That stuff is worth more than your 8 year college tuition.

[Phil]

The pattern setting up after the 17th has the most potential by far of anything we have seen this winter. It may not develop into anything exciting, but it could transition towards something better. The Christmas eve event was really pretty fluky and definitely the ceiling of what that pattern could have reasonably produced (Once it became apparent 99% of the cold air was sliding east.). Yeah the models are showing nothing exciting at face value, but we are seeing baby steps forward with almost every run, and knowing Nina climo we know this is when things are likely to enter a more Nina-Like forcing state.

Yes, but then again, the MJO/tropical forcing that’s producing this pattern change won’t be located over the Indo/Maritime domain forever..eventually it’ll propagate back over the Pacific again..probably in late January.

 

I really want to see equatorward-shifted WPAC forcing this time, rather than the expanded/off-equator WPAC forcing that’s been so problematic lately. If not, I’m not sure how we’ll get there. Maybe a SSW could shake things up enough to make something happen (it would certainly pull forcing equatorward).

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Well, Michael Ventrice doesn’t agree with my take on February. His MJO analogs basically call for another prolonged warm pool forcing event after a few weeks of +EPO/US blowtorching.

 

I’m not sure if/how he’s filtering his analogs for external parameters, though, so I’m not sure what to think.

He's usually pretty accurate with his predictions. I'm hoping he's wrong on this one. It goes in line with what the CPC is predicting though.

[Deweydog]

We're f*cked.