January Weather In the PNW

[Phil]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Long range GFS continues to slowly improve run by run...

[HighlandExperience]

If it were actually 15*F with thundersnow and 60mph winds in Seattle, you bet the media would hype the s**t out of it.

 

The problem is, that doesn’t happen.

More hype

[Deweydog]

Regional snarkiness in progress!

[Gradient Keeper]

This one deepened over 50mb in 24hrs.

 

Not even close, my friend.

We don't have the warm gulf stream or lobe of a PV at play. It's just because it's the east coast where the big markets are. The really stupid thing is the TWC naming every storm system now. Next they will name frontal boundaries, areas of drizzle, and fog banks.

 

#Overhype #OverSensationalized #MediaLunacy

 

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6z NAM in 2 hours 55 minutes

[Phil]

[ShawniganLake]

If it were actually 15*F with thundersnow and 60mph winds in Seattle, you bet the media would hype the s**t out of it.

 

The problem is, that doesn’t happen.

There was a time that the PNW had a shot at something like that. Not so much anymore.

[Phil]

We don't have the warm gulf stream or lobe of a PV at play. It's just because it's the east coast where the big markets are. The really stupid thing is the TWC naming every storm system now. Next they will name frontal boundaries, areas of drizzle, and fog banks.

 

#Overhype #OverSensationalized #MediaLunacy

As stupid as TWC storm names are, they actually name western storms all the time. Why is everyone suddenly up in arms about this now?

 

I’ve been railing against TWC’s storm naming scheme for years now, FWIW. It’s nothing more than a marketing ploy and a mockery of meteorology, IMO.

[Gradient Keeper]

0z GFS after day 10 the Ski Resorts will be VERY happy. Tim will too possibly. #SnowKillsTimsFlowers

 

Nice jet suppression also

 

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0z ECMWF in 51 minutes

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Really strong signal that progressively cooler NW flow may set up 2nd half of the month.

[Jesse]

Does anyone agree with me that the whole "bomb cyclone" terminology being used for the East Coast storm is just stupid? I hate it when they use weather terms that have been in existence for decades and try to make it sound like something that never happened before. The whole polar vortex thing a few years ago was the same.

I absolutely agree.

[snow_wizard]

The media doesn’t cover PNW snow because it doesn’t snow very much in the cities there. Sorry to put it that way, but it’s just reality.

 

Does the media print headlines every time it snows in Burlington VT or Albany NY? Of course not. They don’t care about blizzards in tiny a** PNW suburbs either, and they never will.

 

I don't buy it.  Spokane gets snow all the time.

[Gradient Keeper]

As stupid as TWC storm names are, they actually name western storms all the time. Why is everyone suddenly up in arms about this now?

 

I’ve been railing against TWC’s storm naming scheme for years now, FWIW. It’s nothing more than a marketing ploy and a mockery of meteorology, IMO.

Oh yeah, they name storms everywhere and it's just moronic.

 

Fog Bank Fred will be really worth tracking

 

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12z ECMWF in 12 hours 49 minutes

[TT-SEA]

This is just comical

 

That just hurts my eyes.

 

I hate when non-weather people try to talk about the weather.   Its also why I avoid local news.   And even more so when there is any weather event.   

 

Local media idiots standing on a street corner with some flurries and wet roads behind them as cars race by... trying to make it seem like a crippling blizzard.

[Gradient Keeper]

Really strong signal that progressively cooler NW flow may set up 2nd half of the month.

Jet suppression leads to VERY low snow levels down to yours and Tim's house. The only difference is Tim's flowers will die.

 

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6z GFS in 4 hours 28 minutes

[Phil]

I don't buy it. Spokane gets snow all the time.

Spokane = Albany. At best.

 

Albany actually gets bigger snows than Spokane. The media never covers it. They only care about the megalopolis AKA where the money/readers are.

[snow_wizard]

Really strong signal that progressively cooler NW flow may set up 2nd half of the month.

 

I'm liking what I'm seeing.  There has been a pretty well advertised period where we get a suppressed jet also.  Most runs show lows tracking pretty far south.  Could be a windstorm threat before the suppression as well.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Jan. 15-Feb 15 is historically prime time for cold onshore flow produced snow events up here...Of course everyone knows about January 2012 and 08', but January 2002, 2000, February 96, 90, 85 are all other great examples of onshore flow produced snowstorms in that time frame that dumped over a foot of snow. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Jet suppression leads to VERY low snow levels down to yours and Tim's house. The only difference is Tim's flowers will die.

 

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6z GFS in 4 hours 28 minutes

 

No flowers here...I have many more sub-freezing lows than Tim. 

[HighlandExperience]

Spokane = Albany. At best.

 

Albany actually gets bigger snows than Spokane. The media never covers it. They only care about the megalopolis AKA where the money/readers are.

 

Fact is the main stream media only cares about what happens on the east coast. Atlanta hardly gets any snow, yet CNN makes a huge deal of it when a few flakes fly. Just saying. 

 

Plus I notice all the headlines are mentioning snow up to 18 inches in outer areas that always get plenty of snow!! Especially in Pennsylvania and the places that are in the lake effect belt.

 

So that basically debunks your whole point.

 

Edit: if storm king hit Seattle and Portland I still say there would barely be a word from the media =) 

[snow_wizard]

With an average temp of -67F on Mars you can chalk that one up as more sensationalist news...

 

Ya think?

 

Maybe they'll go for colder than Pluto next time.  CNN is such a joke!

[TT-SEA]

No flowers here...I have many more sub-freezing lows than Tim. 

 

No flowers here either.

 

But based on all the posts in the gardening group tonight... this is happening all over the region.   Even in Kitsap County where it has been much colder.   And its pretty much normal for January.    So I am sure there are daffodils and crocuses poking up in your areas as well.   

[snow_wizard]

No flowers here...I have many more sub-freezing lows than Tim. 

 

I do to.  That is one thing I don't like about his micro climate.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

No flowers here either.

 

But based on all the posts in the gardening group tonight... this is happening all over the region.   Even in Kitsap County where it has been much colder.   And its pretty much normal for January.    So I am sure there are daffodils and crocuses poking up in your areas as well.   

 

No my daffodils are not poking up yet.

[TT-SEA]

Ya think?

 

Maybe they'll go for colder than Pluto next time.  CNN is such a joke!

 

Jim... your beloved Fox News and your Breitbart are doing it too!   OMG!

 

 

Fox News is all a flutter with talk of bombs off the East Coast and Breitbart is running big headlines about iguanas falling from trees.   

 

Its all news organizations.   

[Phil]

Fact is the main stream media only cares about what happens on the east coast. Atlanta hardly gets any snow, yet CNN makes a huge deal of it when a few flakes fly. Just saying.

 

Plus I notice all the headlines are mentioning snow up to 18 inches in outer areas that always get plenty of snow!! So that basically debunks your whole point

Baloney. They care about their media markets, which includes the west coast cities. CNN was sensationalizing the crap out of those California fires last month. The writers assigned to these stories mention the biggest numbers (often from outer areas) to spice up the stories, but they’re writing them because thet affect large media markets.

 

Atlanta is a huge city. As is New York. Boston. Seattle. Philly. DC. So on.

 

Spokane isn’t a huge city. It just doesn’t snow in the big western cities. Seattle has had what, a 4” snowfall average over the last decade?

[TT-SEA]

No my daffodils are not poking up yet.

 

They might be... you should go check.   Probably will be in the next week for sure.   

 

Someone from Kitsap said its been frosty and below freezing almost every morning and her daffodils are poking up now anyways.  

[snow_wizard]

I really like the end of the 0z GFS.  The Pacific is starting to get pretty blocky looking again, but with troughing over the NW.  Nice progress!

[MossMan]

That low coming in near the border on the 19th has some potential if we can get just a little more cold air up north to pump down through Puget Sound.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

They might be... you should go check.   Probably will be in the next week for sure.   

 

Someone from Kitsap said its been frosty and below freezing almost every morning and her daffodils are poking up now anyways.  

 

They will poke up here in mid/late February. My location is about 4-6 weeks behind the lowlands, every year. 

[snow_wizard]

Baloney. They care about their media markets, which includes the west coast cities. CNN was sensationalizing the crap out of those California fires last month. The writers assigned to these stories mention the biggest numbers (often from outer areas) to spice up the stories, but they’re writing them because thet affect large media markets.

 

Atlanta is a huge city. As is New York. Boston. Seattle. Philly. DC. So on.

 

Spokane isn’t a huge city. It just doesn’t snow in the big western cities. Seattle has had what, a 4” snowfall average over the last decade?

 

We get more snow than what you are saying.  Seattle can get gigantic snowstorms sometimes.  No need to start bashing our climate.

[Deweydog]

This is a frozen apple.

[snow_wizard]

That low coming in near the border on the 19th has some potential if we can get just a little more cold air up north to pump down through Puget Sound.

 

Nice to have chances showing up again.

[TT-SEA]

They will poke up here in mid/late February. My location is about 4-6 weeks behind the lowlands, every year. 

 

I have noticed that my location is only about a week behind Bellevue and Issaquah in the spring.     

 

It almost never fails... you see something blooming down there and one week later its happening up here.  

 

I bet if you go look over the next couple weeks... you will see them poking up.   You just don't notice them until mid February.  

[HighlandExperience]

Baloney. They care about their media markets, which includes the west coast cities. CNN was sensationalizing the crap out of those California fires last month. The writers assigned to these stories mention the biggest numbers (often from outer areas) to spice up the stories, but they’re writing them because thet affect large media markets.

 

Atlanta is a huge city. As is New York. Boston. Seattle. Philly. DC. So on.

 

Spokane isn’t a huge city. It just doesn’t snow in the big western cities. Seattle has had what, a 4” snowfall average over the last decade?

 

So you are saying Atlanta getting 2 inches needs to be front page of CNN. Got it. =)

[snow_wizard]

Jan. 15-Feb 15 is historically prime time for cold onshore flow produced snow events up here...Of course everyone knows about January 2012 and 08', but January 2002, 2000, February 96, 90, 85 are all other great examples of onshore flow produced snowstorms in that time frame that dumped over a foot of snow. 

 

Feb 1990 and 1985 had some good block induced snows also.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

0z GFS after day 10 the Ski Resorts will be VERY happy. Tim will too possibly. #SnowKillsTimsFlowers

 

Nice jet suppression also

 

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0z ECMWF in 51 minutes

Day 16 looks similar to Euro weeklies days 15-20

 

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The Euro weeklies a few weeks ago said the PNW was going to be in the icebox now, so hard to take it seriously. Although I am fairly cold with a good amount of snow. Anyway, these hours were already posted, but I like this perspective.

eps_z500a_d5_globe_720.png

eps_z500a_d5_globe_960.png

Those maps look great the ridge builds near the sweet spot and there's a SE ridge. This is a pretty significant signal for it to be this far out. We just need the models to cooperate and keep showing this in future runs. February looks like it might deliver in a big way.

[TT-SEA]

Phil... your argument does not make sense.   The media loves to cover strange and extreme events so its more likely that they would cover a blizzard in Seattle or Atlanta or Dallas then in Chicago or Boston.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Feb 1990 and 1985 had some good block induced snows also.

 

Yeah the overall pattern was probably blockier than say January 08', but they were onshore flow events here.