January Weather In the PNW

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10 CYA Ridge!

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018010600/240/500h_anom.na.png

[Gradient Keeper]

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Day 10 CYA Ridge!

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018010600/240/500h_anom.na.png

CYA?

[ShawniganLake]

CYA?

See ya.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

See ya.

Ok, thought he was referring to a certain area. Or the ridge had to cover up its . . .

[Gradient Keeper]

See ya.

Yup. Cya. See ya. Later. Good Riddance. Sayonara. Goodbye. Adios. Aloha. Arrivederci. Ciao. Auf Wiedersehen. Au revoir. Bon Voyage. Farewell. Shalom. Totsiens. Vale. Zàijiàn.

 

--

12z GFS in 8 hours 19 minutes

[liquidsnow]

We have two seasons now.

 

Fall and spring.

[Phil]

Yup. Cya. See ya. Later. Good Riddance. Sayonara. Goodbye. Adios. Aloha. Arrivederci. Ciao. Auf Wiedersehen. Au revoir. Bon Voyage. Farewell. Shalom. Totsiens. Vale. Zàijiàn.

 

--

12z GFS in 8 hours 19 minutes

Until the evil Baffin Bay vortex of death returns from its short slumber and sucks up all the cold air, then spits it back into NYC for bomb cyclone part II. Muahahaha.

[MossMan]

Until the evil Baffin Bay vortex of death returns from its short slumber and sucks up all the cold air, then spits it back into NYC for bomb cyclone part II. Muahahaha.

Boooooo...don’t you have a window to video???

[Phil]

Boooooo...don’t you have a window to video???

...Yes. Don’t judge me.

 

[luvssnow_spokane]

We have two seasons now.

Fall and spring.

As we have 95% of the time

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Would this be a good old fashion west coast trough complete with pouring rain and warm tropical temperatures by southwest B.C. standards as well?

519 heights just a bit offshore. Impressive.

[HighlandExperience]

We have two seasons now.

 

Fall and spring.

Global warming

[Phil]

West Coast warming

FYP.

[Phil]

FYP.

At least that’s been the theme since the late 1980s.

 

Boreal winter cooling across much of Eurasia and parts of Eastern North America. Mongolia is the big winner.

 

[Blizzard777]

I may as well as book a trip to the east coast to watch frozen iguanas fall out of trees and take that off my bucket list.

If I have extra time will stop at Phil’s house and watch his window flex like a strongman!

Can’t wait to tell the Grandkids about my epic winter story’s!

[ChilliwackBCwx]

Ooopppssss...trying to figure out the reply to quotes.

[Phil]

Ooopppssss...trying to figure out the reply to quotes.

Haha, all good. I saw your post, and lol’ed a little.

[HighlandExperience]

FYP.

Ok lol

[ChilliwackBCwx]

Would this give us lots of rain and mild temps?

[ChilliwackBCwx]

I may as well as book a trip to the east coast to watch frozen iguanas fall out of trees and take that off my bucket list.

If I have extra time will stop at Phil’s house and watch his window flex like a strongman!

Can’t wait to tell the Grandkids about my epic winter story’s!

What about turtles moving slower than they normally go. You could come back a week later and they'd still be in the same location.

[snow_wizard]

The GFS is finally showing a big SOI rise coming around day 4 or day 5.  Given we have had an abnormally low SOI base state for a La Nina for quite some time now this would certainly indicate a big shake up in the tropics.  The 30 day SOI is -4 which I would have deemed impossible with such cold ENSO.  This probably plays into the big picture of why the East has done so well in spite of the Nina thus far.  It's going to change.

[snow_wizard]

This so reminds of 1995-96.  The East got hit big early and we got hit big the last half of January.  Amazingly that was the last time we got a good blast / snow in the last half of January. That is one part of the winter we have yet to score in the 21st century.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Would this give us lots of rain and mild temps?

Looks like rain with mountain snow and average temps. Mid to upper 40's future r WA, probably similar in BC. Not Cold, but not pineapple express warmth either.

[umadbro]

January 17th-18th. That's our window.

[snow_wizard]

We have two seasons now.

 

Fall and spring.

 

You do realize we just had one of the 20 coldest winters on record here in 2016-17?  It's hasn't been that bad.  I had 13.4" of snow here last year including a white Christmas and this winter is still going to deliver.

[snow_wizard]

January 17th-18th. That's our window.

 

That's when the window begins IMO.  All I can say is a blocky winter with a strong Nina going almost has to deliver.  People keep forgetting the context.

[umadbro]

That's when the window begins IMO. All I can say is a blocky winter with a strong Nina going almost has to deliver. People keep forgetting the context.

Mother nature is all about context. How forgetful of us.

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF ensemble is pretty decent in the 10 to 15 day period.  -PNA with a major trough beginning to dig over the NW Pacific.  That will amplify the central Pacific ridge and dig a deep NW trough.

[Phil]

That's when the window begins IMO. All I can say is a blocky winter with a strong Nina going almost has to deliver. People keep forgetting the context.

Strong Niña? No way in hell, brother.

[Dave]

We have two seasons now.

 

Fall and spring.

EUG is still part of the PNW. In this new world of Reddingtonation, we at least also get down summer here.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

EUG is still part of the PNW. In this new world of Reddingtonation, we at least also get down summer here.

Sadly missed out on the White Christmas this winter though much like the Salem area. Last one here was 2008.

[Dave]

Sadly missed out on the White Christmas this winter though much like the Salem area. Last one here was 2008.

Much worse down here. I believe the last white Christmas in Eugene was around 1985, but not quite sure on the exact year.

[WeatherArchive]

Stayton gets fairly similar weather to Mahlon Sweet airport where Eugene records it. We are almost nothing like McNary airport weather. I think the hills between Salem and Stayton block some of the weather and act as a (mini) rain shadow though no where near the extent the 5,000 foot Olympics provides!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Stayton gets fairly similar weather to Mahlon Sweet airport where Eugene records it. We are almost nothing like McNary airport weather. I think the hills between Salem and Stayton block some of the weather and act as a (mini) rain shadow though no where near the extent the 5,000 foot Olympics provides!

You should look up stayton s weather station and check out their stats. If you can’t find it send me a message and I will send you a link.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Stayton can do better than Silverton some years. They had more snow in 2013-14 and definitely in 2011-12. Silverton did WAY better than Stayton last year though, that is true. Silverton is north of the Waldo hills so that will block very weak southerly flow, it also prevents weak northerly flow from breaking through to stayton to the south. Why Silverton has snow on 12-20-08 and stayton did not.

[TT-SEA]

Another storm for the East Coast taking shape on the 12Z GFS in a week...

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Another storm for the East Coast taking shape on the 12Z GFS in a week...

 

 

Its been showing the system for awhile now. But it is looking progressively stronger. Not as much cold air to work with and a little further inland/closer to the coast than the last one, so it looks like some of the coastal cities could just see rain. 

[TT-SEA]

And another western ridge next weekend... this looks familiar.

 

[ShawniganLake]

Also trending stronger with the west coast ridge later next week. Probably going to be another strong push of arctic air east of the Rockies.