January Weather In the PNW

[umadbro]

I'll just stop posting then. Nobody is listening anyway.

My god. Throw tantrums much?

 

Smoke a bowl and chill out.

[Phil]

Sounds like you've given up on us. A blocky Nina winter almost always delivers in the long run.

Well, I have given up on an Arctic blast this month in the PNW. I haven’t given up on February yet. There’s some potential there, IMO, but it’s threading the needle.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Wait, is that a -AO? Nah..those don’t happen anymore.

 

Definitely a jet extension coming. Probably not going to morph into anything more than that, though, assuming it makes it into the west, and I suspect we will probably return to -EPO/Midwest troughing afterwards for awhile during late January and/or early February, before stuff starts flipping around again in the middle of February.

 

Even just a 4~5 day event with Arctic air intrusion and 6"+ of snow would make the winter memorable for many in this region. Our events generally happen during long wave pattern transitions. I suspect we could see something during the transition to back -EPO before we end up back in a stagnant warmer pattern with eastern troughing.

[Phil]

Way too soon to say.

Probably, but it looks shaky right now. Pineapple Express followed by a retraction under residual +WPO and/or Siberian Vortex isn’t exactly my idea of a cold pattern in the PNW, but who knows..

[Deweydog]

Well, I have given up on an Arctic blast this month in the PNW. I haven’t given up on February yet. There’s some potential there, IMO, but it’s threading the needle.

It's always threading the needle here.

[ShawniganLake]

I'm just going to continue to say I like our chances even though 90% of the people on here are ignoring me. I just don't get it.

I have read every single one of your posts. Things might work out but they might not. Still not a single member in the GFS ensemble showing arctic air in the PNW in the next 16 days.

[TT-SEA]

Don’t stop posting, dude. Tim needs you!!

 

No... I certainly do not.    

 

But I really think he actually might be blocking out past times when he has done this and it went badly and then the inevitable tantrum and disappearance.    I am not joking here.

 

Its sort of surreal.    But he did just admit that he completely forgot about the significant snow event at SEA a year ago when, at the time, he said he was throwing things around the house and very depressed.    He knows the details behind every snow event ever recorded here... how could he forget a significant snowfall for the Seattle area just 1 year ago unless being missed by the snowfall caused such a visceral response that he later blocked it out?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It is obvious he has doubts, but is trying to project optimism, that is why the negativity of others matters so much. If he was really so confident it would not matter. I think it is pretty obvious there will not be greatness this winter. Aside from that I don't think anyone has "given up." We can still get snow in February, maybe even early March. But it is pretty clear based on every available resource we will not see arctic air before January 25th...

[Front Ranger]

All LR guidance continues to point to -PNA developing second half of the month.

 

[TT-SEA]

It is obvious he has doubts, but is trying to project optimism, that is why the negativity of others matters so much. If he was really so confident it would not matter. I think it is pretty obvious there will not be greatness this winter. Aside from that I don't think anyone has "given up." We can still get snow in February, maybe even early March. But it is pretty clear based on every available resource we will not see arctic air before January 25th...

 

Very Trump-like.   

 

You are spot on with this entire post.

[Phil]

Even just a 4~5 day event with Arctic air intrusion and 6"+ of snow would make the winter memorable for many in this region. Our events generally happen during long wave pattern transitions. I suspect we could see something during the transition to back -EPO before we end up back in a stagnant warmer pattern with eastern troughing.

Maybe. I’m trying not to get super-specific again and bust like last time, but these jet extensions are risky because they can really torch western Canada/AK if they’re not oriented properly.

 

This one strikes me as more of the +PNA/Pineapple Express variety, rather than a +EPO/-PNA style variety more commonly found in a Niña.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Went down to the local pond and got some fishing in today and enjoyed the sun.

 

[Phil]

All LR guidance continues to point to -PNA developing second half of the month.

I’m not seeing it. I bet it verifies +PNA or neutral, unless the NAO really tanks.

[ShawniganLake]

It is obvious he has doubts, but is trying to project optimism, that is why the negativity of others matters so much. If he was really so confident it would not matter. I think it is pretty obvious there will not be greatness this winter. Aside from that I don't think anyone has "given up." We can still get snow in February, maybe even early March. But it is pretty clear based on every available resource we will not see arctic air before January 25th...

With no arctic air before January 25th a “great winter” is off the table now. A nice late season event would salvage some respectability

[Front Ranger]

It is obvious he has doubts, but is trying to project optimism, that is why the negativity of others matters so much. If he was really so confident it would not matter. I think it is pretty obvious there will not be greatness this winter. Aside from that I don't think anyone has "given up." We can still get snow in February, maybe even early March. But it is pretty clear based on every available resource we will not see arctic air before January 25th...

 

There is no reason we couldn't see something similar to 1996 going forward. 

[TT-SEA]

Went down to the local pond and got some fishing in today and enjoyed the sun.

 

 

Nice pics... but that just screams pneumonia!    No hat on your daughter?   It was definitely below 70 down there right?   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

There is no reason we couldn't see something similar to 1996 going forward. 

 

Very true, but I would not call that a "great winter." It was an interesting winter. 

[Deweydog]

I’m not seeing it. I bet it verifies +PNA.

I agree.

 

One thing I've noticed with the GFS over the years is when the long range goofball range tends to want to show these suppressed jet setups there's usually a tendency for it to morph into more of a SW'erly flow pattern as it gets a better handle on the offshore cyclogenesis/downstream ridging.

[TT-SEA]

There is no reason we couldn't see something similar to 1996 going forward. 

 

Absolutely.   Even last year the big snow event came in early February for the Seattle area.    But its just speculation at this point of course.

[Front Ranger]

I’m not seeing it. I bet it verifies +PNA or neutral, unless the NAO really tanks.

 

I know you're not forecasting it, but that is what guidance is showing now.

[umadbro]

Last winter was great!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ensembles could be worse!

[Front Ranger]

Very true, but I would not call that a "great winter." It was an interesting winter. 

 

I agree, not a great winter, but certainly a good one - and for many people, thanks to the Christmastime snow, this winter is already ahead of 1995-96 (at least for snowfall/cold).

[Phil]

Notice how the PNA has consistently been verifying higher than guidance has forecasted since Thanksgiving. It’s been a theme even within seven days (let alone 14+ days out).

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif

 

Could be that the jet extension will register as a -PNA for something like 5 days, before upstream AAM removal starts slowing down and forcing re-enters into warm pool territory.

[Phil]

That said, with the vortex finally getting booted out of Greenland/Baffin Bay, that will help lower the PNA, so maybe things will change more substantially until the MJO reaches the warm pool. Who knows.

[Phil]

Birthday present for Jesse.

 

Global lower tropospheric temperatures are starting out the new year at their lowest levels in six years.

 

[Mercurial]

More common than you think, I think. Bozeman MT sees 90" of snowfall with 18" of precipitation on average yearly.

 

20:1 or even 40:1 ratios (like we had last month) are a beautiful thing.

 

West Yellowstone gets 160" of snow from 21" precip, and Cooke City averages 210" from 26" lol.  Obviously, not many people live in those places, so YMMV.  

 

Also, it's darn near impossible to get a significant rain event in the winter in southwestern MT.  More common up here, though still uncommon.

[Phil]

Birthday present for Jesse.

 

Global lower tropospheric temperatures are starting out the new year at their lowest levels in six years.

 

Though admittedly, all this Arctic air over North America at very low latitudes is bringing down the global temperature anomaly a bit. We’ll see what happens once it’s booted out.

 

Then again, I guess 2013/14 was similar in that respect and was still warmer by this time. Stronger Niña this year? Lower solar? Intraseasonal variability? Start of the ice age? Some combination of the aforementioned? We’ll find out soon enough!

[weather girl]

I'm just going to continue to say I like our chances even though 90% of the people on here are ignoring me.  I just don't get it.

 

Maybe I'm a little too syrupy today, Jesse's hbd and all

 

This is our spring, so we better enjoy it while it's here. HBD, Jesse! 

[snow_wizard]

There is no reason we couldn't see something similar to 1996 going forward. 

 

Mid Jan 1996 was the number one analog on the day 11 18z GFS today.  I'm not getting why people think a great event is off the table.  I just can't help myself I guess.

[snow_wizard]

Maybe I'm a little too syrupy today, Jesse's hbd and all <---------that's a joke---but your tropics stuff and forecasts are part of the reason I decided to check out The Weather Forum again. Shake it off and keep posting. 

 

This is our spring, so we better enjoy it while it's here. HBD, Jesse! 

 

I'll be here.

[crf450ish]

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2018/01/snowpack-update-slightly-low-today-but.html?m=1

 

 

Cliff Mass appears to pretty optimistic.

 

 

 

“.......But there is great reason for hope.

 

This is a La Nina winter, and the effects of La Nina (more snow in our mountains) usually don't snap in until after the New Year. The latest sea surface temperature anomalies (difference from normal) over the central tropical Pacific show we are firmly in a La Nina, with colder than normal ocean temperatures (see below). La Nina's tend to produce cool/wet conditions over the Northwest: which means SNOW.......”

[snow_wizard]

Notice how the PNA has consistently been verifying higher than guidance has forecasted since Thanksgiving. It’s been a theme even within seven days (let alone 14+ days out).

 

 

Could be that the jet extension will register as a -PNA for something like 5 days, before upstream AAM removal starts slowing down and forcing re-enters into warm pool territory.

 

No doubt the MJO is going to be the key.  It is currently stalled in 2 so it will take some time to get out of favorable territory for the West.  I still say it's interesting how the SOI crash a while back has coincided with the East getting hammered.  It is about to skyrocket.  That should trigger something good for us IMO.

[Phil]

Well, these are somewhat interesting global temperature projections developing on the modeling today. Verbatim we’re back into 2008-2012 territory by the middle of January with the Pacific Hadley Cell retracting.

 

Ahhh, if only the MJO wasn’t moving into the warm pool domain right at that time (where it will draw in and expel a truckload of OHC into the atmosphere). We’re so close to changing the global circulation, yet so far. Argh.

[snow_wizard]

Our events generally happen during long wave pattern transitions. 

 

You are very correct here.  Feb 1989 and Nov 2010 (just to name a couple) happened right on AO crashes.  I know of some events that have been triggered by big SOI spikes.  I think 1996 was one of those.

[snow_wizard]

Well, these are somewhat interesting global temperature projections developing on the modeling today. Verbatim we’re back into 2008-2012 territory by the middle of January with the Pacific Hadley Cell retracting.

 

Ahhh, if only the MJO wasn’t moving into the warm pool domain right at that time (where it will draw in and expel a truckload of OHC into the atmosphere). We’re so close to changing the global circulation, yet so far. Argh.

 

We almost have to see a big global temperature drop very soon with the deep solar min and the cold ENSO.  I expect it will be at least mid 2019 before we see a Nino again.

[snow_wizard]

FWIW I put $100.00 on the PNA being minus by the 20th at the very latest.  I just see no way to avoid it.

[Phil]

No doubt the MJO is going to be the key. It is currently stalled in 2 so it will take some time to get out of favorable territory for the West. I still say it's interesting how the SOI crash a while back has coincided with the East getting hammered. It is about to skyrocket. That should trigger something good for us IMO.

I’m actually very excited about the possibility of something else..the descent of the -QBO/easterly shear to 50mb being timed perfectly to boreal spring this year.

 

The -QBO represents a cold/elevated tropical tropopause and deeper convection. This, occurring near/just after the spring equinox, could help focus global tropical convection closer to the equator starting in March/April, relatively speaking, which would be an excellent opportunity to retract the Hadley Cells right as we move into boreal summer..

 

If we get a preliminary retraction moving into the warm season, then we’ll have a head start in the seasonal cycle moving into the autumn, and we won’t have to worry about wasting months waiting for the Hadley Cells to retract like this year.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

This winter is still young. Apparently a lot of people on here are blind to the things we have going for us right now. There have been many great winters that didn't have anything Earth shattering until well after this. In fact what is happening back East is a sign extreme events are pretty likely this season. I guarantee the attitude would have been the same in years like 1996, 1989, etc. People will just have to see I guess.

I agree. Out of all the big snowstorms I've experienced here in the NW, over half of them have occurred in February. I think most people just don't want to wait until then because winter is almost over at that point and the sun angle starts to become a problem. Back in 2014 PDX had 3 consecutive days with snowstorms in February and set a record low high temperature at 23 one day. I feel extreme weather events will continue to happen at a faster pace then before.

[Phil]

I agree.

 

One thing I've noticed with the GFS over the years is when the long range goofball range tends to want to show these suppressed jet setups there's usually a tendency for it to morph into more of a SW'erly flow pattern as it gets a better handle on the offshore cyclogenesis/downstream ridging.

Just saw this post.

 

Definitely. It loves to go zonal in the extended range, for reasons which I’m sure are debatable.