Tom Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Folks, who said it would be easy??? Here we are, inside 4 days and the model mayhem continues as a very complicated set of parameters are in the works. There is the potential of a major storm system riding up the OV/Apps sometime late this week into the weekend. Where this system tracks is still up in the air. Question is, who will cash in on some snow??? There will also be a LES potential for WI/IL members during this period to keep things more interesting. Let's discuss... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 9, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 12z Ukie... http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 9, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Don't have access but hearing at hr72 UKMET is west of EuroUkie certainly trended stronger and better phased compared to its 00z run... 00z...looks about 3mb weaker last night... http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Can only smile at the developments so far..per IWX's afd they see some of the GFS's errors Pretty muted read with the lack of consensus tho.. Focus then shifts to strong southern stream wave that will ejecttowards the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. Models have generally stayedin their camps of the past couple days with GFS quicker andfurther east with SFC low and EC/GEM/UKMET all leaning towardsslower/stronger and further NW solution. Interesting note on 700mb low on the GFS is depicted much further west than sfcreflection (over E Ohio Sat AM). Suspect with time the GFS willcome into line with other models. So what does this all mean forthe area in terms of snow? Consensus of several offices is growingconcern for accumulating snowfall starting later Friday andespecially Fri Ngt into Sat. Timing of colder air wrapping in,deep gulf moisture and potential favorable track somewhere overthe eastern Lakes all point towards several inches of snowoccurring in many areas. Low confidence remains with regards toplacement of heaviest snowfall and exactly how much. Needless tosay, impacts are going to be felt into the start of the weekendfor many areas, whether it be snow and wind, of what may beanother sig push of arctic air with highs in the teens and subzero lows (wind chills) all in play. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 I'll take that for an ensemble run! Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 9, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 12z GEFS holding on to the easterly track... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Per NOAA: Position of the tight low level baroclinic zone remains in question,and the 00z Euro remains the most aggressive of the solutions, withthe ideal surface low track near Pittsburgh Pennsylvania. Prolongedand heavy deformation snow Friday evening into Saturday, with ideal850 mb temps lowering into the mid negative teens. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 From a LOT met on the 09 0z EC Quite a Euro run, wow. Icing concerns Thursday night/Friday morning in southeast half of my CWA to a blizzard/near blizzard later Friday into Saturday for the same areas. High impact storm for a lot of people and keeps us in the tracking game in northern Illinois. For my own perspective as a snow lover, need this to come back farther west even. This is giving off vibes of 2/24/16 and I want no part of that lol. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 9, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Hard not to believe the GEFS as they have been pretty stead fast, but then again, you had a large portion of the EPS members sticking to a NW track along the OV. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 12z GEFS holding on to the easterly track... Still manages a storm over my way, but I'd call that the "low bar" end of the spectrum tbh. CPC - finally we make their map, but they have yet to decide what's snow and what's other.. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Hard not to believe the GEFS as they have been pretty stead fast, but then again, you had a large portion of the EPS members sticking to a NW track along the OV. Agreed, and something in the middle is still in play tbh. This is like the narrowing of the cone on a strong 'caine 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Models should come upon agreements by tomorrow afternoon, hopefully. Euro, being the most aggressive one is the one to trust I think. I believe so because it has been most reliable all Winter season thus far. Precipitation in percentage have my area at 100% already for Friday. I am expecting more changes. This storm is carrying a lot of winds. My winds are calling for 35-45mph Friday night sustain. Dang! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Hard not to believe the GEFS as they have been pretty stead fast, but then again, you had a large portion of the EPS members sticking to a NW track along the OV. Almost all the Euro ensemble members including the control are lock step with the op. Amazing consensus there. I like the sounds of that.. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Models should come upon agreements by tomorrow afternoon, hopefully. Euro, being the most aggressive one is the one to trust I think. I believe so because it has been most reliable all Winter season thus far. Precipitation in percentage have my area at 100% already for Friday. I am expecting more changes. This storm is carrying a lot of winds. My winds are calling for 35-45mph Friday night sustain. Dang! Where are you seeing those? NOAA or other? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 9, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 I like the sounds of that..This...and the thought comes to mind of the seasonal trends with southern waves becoming stronger as we get closer since Oct have me more intrigued. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Where are you seeing those? NOAA or other?Its TWC only.....but, they constantly change their input every so often. In a hour, it will say something different. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 This...and the thought comes to mind of the seasonal trends with southern waves becoming stronger as we get closer since Oct have me more intrigued. SOME 09-0z EPS members like yby as well.. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 UK has come pretty far nw the last couple runs... now lifts the snow as far nw as Chicago and looks very close to the 00z Euro. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 SOME 09-0z EPS members like yby as well.. 20180109 0z 132hr EPS snow panel 10to1 e2-26.jpg 20180109 0z 132hr EPS snow panel 10to1 e27-51.jpgE2 and E25 score a coup please. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 9, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Great, my internet service just crapped out and a technician is out trying to fix the outage. Perfect timing, just in time for the Euro. Won’t be posting maps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 SOME 09-0z EPS members like yby as well.. 20180109 0z 132hr EPS snow panel 10to1 e2-26.jpg 20180109 0z 132hr EPS snow panel 10to1 e27-51.jpgDang....smoked! E-20 shows 2ft+. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 3 of the 51 members even clip my back yard LOL. It's gonna happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 EURO looks stronger than the GFS but the track looks similar.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Euro looks further east this run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 9, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 GFS FTW??? 12z Euro shifting back east Bigly, even more then yesterday’s 12z run...INDY to CLE special this run...clips Detroit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 9, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Niko’s the winner on this run...Jaster riding the edge...LES over in NE IL looks very solid but we know how that works... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 All we have to do is invert the colors and eastern Iowa would be in business. The euro even has significant snowfall down into the deep south again. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Just wanted to pop over to this thread and see how things are looking. Looks like the Euro wasn’t all that great. Mood isn’t much better in the other storm thread. Good luck with wave 2. Wave 1 turning into another swing and a miss. Someone pull out a winner here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 A little eye candy from the UK now the farthest west model. This is model craziness! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Out of all the storms for GEFS to beat out EURO this year......LMAO Still a few days away but EURO shifting east today really sucks!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Niko’s the winner on this run...Jaster riding the edge...LES over in NE IL looks very solid but we know how that works...Yup..looks great for me, but still way too early to be in the sweet spot. Id rather be off now and be in the bullseye near gametime.... Dont worry Jaster...still early for ya, even you Tom. Real busy at the office today..cant post too much. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Niko’s the winner on this run...Jaster riding the edge...LES over in NE IL looks very solid but we know how that works... So much for my concerns it'd go NW of me. Maybe not a bad position from this range..still a lot of sampling to go that could bounce it back my way a tad. I prefer the windy side, not the slop side tbh.. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Yup..looks great for me, but still way too early to be in the sweet spot. Id rather be off now and be in the bullseye near gametime.... Dont worry Jaster...still early for ya, even you Tom. Real busy at the office today..cant post too much. Thanks Mr. 2017-18 Jackpot for that encouragement.. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Thanks Mr. 2017-18 Jackpot for that encouragement.. Per NOAA:Dry weather expected for Sunday and most of Monday before apotential clipper drops through late Monday, bringing another chancefor accumulating snowfall. Another potent Clippa coming!?!?!? Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Yep, 12z EPS was a decided shift SE From an Amwx Met (or student, Idk) Surprised to see the EPS shifting so much run to run. There are 3 shortwaves involved which may be contributing. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Well, looks like Euro FAIL for mby..LOL this was fun for like 12 hrs. My original fears back in autumn that the OHV just SE of me would be ground zero for the real action is coming to fruition. Great call, but one I hated to make. GFS gives me token flakes as the CF swings thru but shafts me completely with the defo shield. GEM gives me mix with the CF and then a "tease graze" with the defo-band. I'd take the GEM even if it's only two hrs of pixie-rippage lol. We had some storms like that back in the colder 80's and even '02-03. Detroit usually made out with WSWarning for 6-ish in both scenarios (city on south). Doubt the 0z Euro stays the course, or even as far west as the 12z. SLP just doesn't get strong enough to push NW like a GHD-1 or ofc the merge-bomb kinda deal. Congrats OH and other snow-starved cornstalkers in Indiana & far SE Mich Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Well, looks like Euro FAIL for mby..LOL this was fun for like 12 hrs. My original fears back in autumn that the OHV just SE of me would be ground zero for the real action is coming to fruition. Great call, but one I hated to make. GFS gives me token flakes as the CF swings thru but shafts me completely with the defo shield. GEM gives me mix with the CF and then a "tease graze" with the defo-band. I'd take the GEM even if it's only two hrs of pixie-rippage lol. We had some storms like that back in the colder 80's and even '02-03. Detroit usually made out with WSWarning for 6-ish in both scenarios (city on south). Doubt the 0z Euro stays the course, or even as far west as the 12z. SLP just doesn't get strong enough to push NW like a GHD-1 or ofc the merge-bomb kinda deal. Congrats OH and other snow-starved cornstalkers in Indiana & far SE MichIf I were you I wouldn't bail unless the Euro stays east for a couple more cycles. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SE Wisconsin Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 MKX AFD for Friday night and Saturday "...a persistent northeast flow sets up, setting the stage for a lake snow event oversoutheast Wisconsin. GFS forecast soundings show the initial inversion rising, as thelow levels moisten. Also mid levels also moisten with the mainupper trough overhead.AS a result, expect the lake snow to provide several inches of snow. Will have to keepan eye on this for any eventual advisories. Temperatures will remain very cold." This seems like a new and interesting development. Winds are also forecast to be very strong at 20-30mph from the NE during this time. The plot thickens! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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