February Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

Shiver me timbers.

 

I’m loving what the SSW has done as far as shaking up the overall regime. Would be nice if it stuck.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I’m loving what the SSW has done as far as shaking up the overall regime. Would be nice if it stuck.

For a few years.

[Esquimalt]

I’m loving what the SSW has done as far as shaking up the overall regime. Would be nice if it stuck.

Who's to say it won't?

[Front Ranger]

Widespread means all of W. Washington or most of NW Oregon. Favored C-zone areas could do well. But there will be many places in W. Oregon and W. WA that do not see anything more than a dusting. Seattle Metro area getting snow would be a localized event. Olympia to BLI would qualify as widespread.

 

There's very rarely a guarantee of snow from OLM to BLI.

 

Semantics aside, "widespread" lowland snowfall looks about as likely as you'll ever see with the coming pattern, aside from something like Dec 2008.

[Timmy]

Dumping snow here down to 36 from a High of 40. Easily the heaviest snow of the winter here. Not sticking though

[Front Ranger]

18z American looks pretty darn close to the past couple runs at hour 72.

[Jesse]

Dumping snow here down to 36 from a High of 40. Easily the heaviest snow of the winter here. Not sticking though

The fact that the weather sequence the last few days has overachieved so much ( strong continental intrusion Monday, very cold temps yesterday morning then unexpected snow with the front) bodes well for the later stuff IMO. This pattern change has some teeth.

[BLI snowman]

GFS looking nice for the North Sound.

[Perturbed Member]

Other than the ECMWF, the other models have been very consistent in showing very little precip in the valley down here due to a clearly defined snow/rain shadow. Should be the usual precip runs out just as it gets cold enough drill we are used to here. Hopefully we get something midweek to override the cold and drop a few inches. 

[Front Ranger]

GFS looking nice for the North Sound.

 

Moves timing up a few hours for the front, too.

 

[Jbolin]

This was just posted on Twitter 

"After reviewing the latest models I can confidently say that it's an ideal pattern for a 1,000 ft snow level. No widespread snow at sea level, but somebody could hit the convergence zone lottery on Sunday. Also of interest--will the 1600+day streak of 32+ deg highs end Monday? If any of these "ridge roller" type storms (Lance Bosart term) ends up stronger than currently forecast, it will simply erode the cold air faster. No source of additional arctic air after Monday".

 

[Deweydog]

Pessimism/optimism.

 

Which to choose!!!?!!!?!

[TT-SEA]

 

This was just posted on Twitter 

 

"After reviewing the latest models I can confidently say that it's an ideal pattern for a 1,000 ft snow level. No widespread snow at sea level, but somebody could hit the convergence zone lottery on Sunday. Also of interest--will the 1600+day streak of 32+ deg highs end Monday? If any of these "ridge roller" type storms (Lance Bosart term) ends up stronger than currently forecast, it will simply erode the cold air faster. No source of additional arctic air after Monday".

 

 

 

By who?

[Esquimalt]

The 18Z GFS is coming in stronger and colder with the Sunday system, which could translate to more snow for many.  

[Jesse]

Pessimism/optimism.

 

Which to choose!!!?!!!?!

Big P. Just because pessimism and realism are synonymous, of course.

[HighlandExperience]

[Farmboy]

This was just posted on Twitter

 

"After reviewing the latest models I can confidently say that it's an ideal pattern for a 1,000 ft snow level. No widespread snow at sea level, but somebody could hit the convergence zone lottery on Sunday. Also of interest--will the 1600+day streak of 32+ deg highs end Monday? If any of these "ridge roller" type storms (Lance Bosart term) ends up stronger than currently forecast, it will simply erode the cold air faster. No source of additional arctic air after Monday".

 

What a dooosh.

[Jbolin]

By who?

I'm not at liberty to divulge.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Seattle hasn't had a sub freezing high since January 2012?!

[Perturbed Member]

 

hmmmm

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z is better through 144

[Front Ranger]

18z is a lot closer with the Tuesday system...

[Front Ranger]

Seattle hasn't had a sub freezing high since January 2012?!

 

SEA had 3 in 2013-14.

 

Came close several times last winter with two highs of 33 and two of 34.

[Geos]

Need that low to cut south a bit. 

 

[Perturbed Member]

18z is a lot closer with the Tuesday system...

 

 

ICON and GEM have toyed with bringing it closer or curling it back NE towards us from the south in previous runs. Maybe we are trending there.

[Geos]

 

This was just posted on Twitter 

 

"After reviewing the latest models I can confidently say that it's an ideal pattern for a 1,000 ft snow level. No widespread snow at sea level, but somebody could hit the convergence zone lottery on Sunday. Also of interest--will the 1600+day streak of 32+ deg highs end Monday? If any of these "ridge roller" type storms (Lance Bosart term) ends up stronger than currently forecast, it will simply erode the cold air faster. No source of additional arctic air after Monday".

 

 

 

Not on Sunday and Monday. It'll be lower than that. 

[Front Ranger]

ICON and GEM have toyed with bringing it closer or curling it back NE towards us from the south in previous runs. Maybe we are trending there.

 

ICON...ICAN!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I REALLY like the 18z 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

SEA had 3 in 2013-14.

 

Came close several times last winter with two highs of 33 and two of 34.

 

I should have done my math better on that.... Historically does SEA have fewer sub freezing days than PDX, SLE, or EUG because of their proximity to the water?

[Deweydog]

I REALLY like the 18z

Dale likes the taste!

[umadbro]

Worked up in Rododendren today. 5-7 inches up there this morning. It never got below 32 degrees on the way up, so the snow was wet and heavy and slick as snot.

[MossMan]

Moves timing up a few hours for the front, too.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_16.png

Yes please!

BTW I still have snow at work! Suprised how slow it’s melting now compared to this morning.

[Deweydog]

They delayed opening Golden Corral AGAIN! So much for dining on hospital food and watching the heavy snowfall Sunday evening...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just a fantastic run.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

They delayed opening Golden Corral AGAIN! So much for dining on hospital food and watching the heavy snowfall Sunday evening...

Where is this Golden Corral at? They're finally opening Cracka Barrels up here too.

[Deweydog]

Just a fantastic run.

The mystique of My Location™ may soon be resurrected.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just a fantastic run.

Yeah you're going to get buried. Tons of orographics in your favor.

[Deweydog]

Where is this Golden Corral at? They're finally opening Cracka Barrels up here too.

NE Vancouver.

 

The opening has been delayed several times this fall/winter. I can't help but think the delays and our sluggish winter are somehow connected.

[BLI snowman]

Just a fantastic run.

 

Doesn't show much lowland snow south of Seattle.

[MossMan]

They delayed opening Golden Corral AGAIN! So much for dining on hospital food and watching the heavy snowfall Sunday evening...

Last time I was at the Golden Corral was in January 2012, we had just come from the hospital, we were visiting my dying step dad.