February Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

You can definitely see the seasonal aspect of the Monday/Tuesday cold as offshore gradients are pretty weak. Offshore gradients quickly becoming pretty irrelevant.

[Deweydog]

Last time I was at the Golden Corral was in January 2012, we had just come from the hospital, we were visiting my dying step dad.

They pride themselves as being the establishment of choice for grieving families. Trauma feeds on carbs!

[seattleweatherguy]

By who?

This sucks hopes the models change

[MossMan]

This sucks hopes the models change

If I got nearly 2” last night from a very marginal set up...I think we will be just fine on Sunday.

[Front Ranger]

I should have done my math better on that.... Historically does SEA have fewer sub freezing days than PDX, SLE, or EUG because of their proximity to the water?

 

SEA's long term average is 2.7. 

 

PDX is 3.1. SLE is 2.5. EUG is 2.6.

 

So they're all pretty close, with PDX having a slight edge over others due to gorge influence.

[HighlandExperience]

If I got nearly 2” last night from a very marginal set up...I think we will be just fine on Sunday.

According to an unconfirmed source on Twitter only known to Wsmet nope

[Jbolin]

According to an unconfirmed source on Twitter only known to Wsmet nope

That "tweet" aside, I think W. Wa will do fine if not exceed some expectations

 

I don't see how a majority of folks don't score something in this setup

[Front Ranger]

SEA's long term average is 2.7. 

 

PDX is 3.1. SLE is 2.5. EUG is 2.6.

 

So they're all pretty close, with PDX having a slight edge over others due to gorge influence.

 

Guess who dominates everyone with 6/year?

 

B.L.I.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

They delayed opening Golden Corral AGAIN! So much for dining on hospital food and watching the heavy snowfall Sunday evening...

 

D**n! They got rid of the GC in my old town in Oklahoma. Major bummer.

[Phil]

I’m loving what the SSW has done as far as shaking up the overall regime. Would be nice if it stuck.

I’m with you 100%. Low solar will certainly help, as will the insane +PNA/+NAO “starting point” itself (the bigger they are, the harder they fall..easier for the rubber band to snap back).

 

It’ll probably be bumpy for the first year, like 2013, which saw some swings back/forth (globally, at least). However I’m fairly confident that we’re now leaving the stagnant/warm NPAC regime of 2013-17.

[seattleweatherguy]

AFDSEW

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Seattle WA

318 PM PST Wed Feb 14 2018

 

.SYNOPSIS...A few showers will end this evening. The next front will

arrive Thursday night and Friday. A stronger frontal system will

move through the region Saturday. Cold air will push into the area

Sunday. Mostly clear and cold weather is likely Monday and Tuesday.

 

&&

 

.SHORT TERM...A few showers will end this evening and there should

be clearing overnight. Thursday should start out mostly clear and

chilly and then some clouds and a few light showers ought to develop

later in the day. The next front moves through the area Thursday

night and Friday morning--precip will be pretty light in the

lowlands but the mountains will pick up another decent shot of snow.

 

.LONG TERM...A more vigorous frontal system will move through the

area Saturday. Saturday looks wet and blustery and the mountains

ought to get some heavy snow. Saturday night and Sunday will see

much colder air shifting south through the region. Sunday morning is

probably the best chance for lowland snow with the modified arctic

front. Monday and Tuesday should be clear and cold. Sunday night

will see the cold snap begin, but with breezy weather it will be

more wind chill that night. After the gradients relax Monday, the

coldest low temps of the winter should occur Monday night with a

range of 15 to 25 degrees across Western Washington in the forecast.

For reference, the coldest it has been at Sea-Tac this winter so far

is 28 degrees and the forecast low Monday night is currently 24

degrees and if there is snow on the ground in the outlying areas it

can easily be ten degrees cooler there than Sea-Tac.

 

&&

 

.AVIATION...Strong northerly flow aloft tonight will become

moderate northwesterly on Thursday. The air mass will be moist

and somewhat unstable below 6,000 feet msl, with dry and stable

air above. Moisture will deepen late Thursday. Drier northerly

surface flow continues to slowly reduce shower coverage and

improve cloud ceilings. Conditions will continue to slowly improve

until Thu morning. Thursday afternoon, a turn to low-level

onshore flow will help bring cigs back down in places. On Thursday

evening, thicker clouds and light precip will develop due to

onset of a warm advection pattern.

 

KSEA...Only a little more improvement with cigs through this

evening, with cigs most commonly in the 018-035 range through

tonight. Stubborn showers which are currently in the vicinity

should taper off this evening. Should be more breaks in the clouds

on Thu morning, with a short period of scattering expected. Clouds

will fill in, thicken, and lower on Thursday afternoon and

evening. Light rain possible on Thursday evening. Haner

 

&&

 

.MARINE...Gradients will slowly ease through Thursday

morning. A cold front will move southeast through the waters on

Friday. A 1005 mb low will move southeast down Vancouver Island

and across the Northwest Washington waters on Saturday afternoon.

This feature should bring gales to the coast and Strait, and

possibly Puget Sound. Strong northeast Fraser Outflow wind will

spread out across the waters on Sunday and Sunday night, bringing

northeast gales to the northern inland waters and the eastern half

of the Strait. Fraser Outflow will gradually ease on Monday. Haner

 

&&

[SilverFallsAndrew]

SEA's long term average is 2.7. 

 

PDX is 3.1. SLE is 2.5. EUG is 2.6.

 

So they're all pretty close, with PDX having a slight edge over others due to gorge influence.

 

Really pretty close. 

[Phil]

Clown range, d10-15 18z GFS. Such a beautiful pattern.

 

Easy WHEM Hadley Cell contraction, convective ventilation of the deep tropics, large scale radiative loss to space via latent heat release in the mid/upper tropical troposphere, dehydration of the tropical stratosphere, reduced cloud cover at the pole, and increased cloud cover in the tropics.

 

[Jbolin]

Clown range, d10-15 18z GFS. Such a beautiful pattern.

 

Easy WHEM Hadley Cell contraction, convective ventilation of the deep tropics, large scale radiative loss to space via latent heat release in the mid/upper tropical troposphere, dehydration of the tropical stratosphere, reduced cloud cover at the pole, had increased cloud cover in the tropics.

 

A bit sexual in nature if you turn your head 90 degrees to the left

[Jesse]

18z ensembles are the coldest yet for early next week. Mean drops below -10c and there is a decently sized group of members that are down toward -15c.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

18z ensembles are the coldest yet for early next week. Mean drops below -10c and there is a decently sized group of members that are down toward -15c.

I don't see how most if not all of us in the valley won't at least get some flakes in the air, even without accumulation.

[Jesse]

I don't see how most if not all of us in the valley won't at least get some flakes in the air, even without accumulation.

 

Colder air doesn't always mean snow, unfortunately. But a deeper arctic airmass could theoretically mean a more potent arctic front late on Sunday.

 

I like the fact that the overall pattern looks to stay cold and troughy moving out of the arctic air. No big warmup. Potential for multiple overrunning setups or even wet onshore snow events in the long range.

[Phil]

A bit sexual in nature if you turn your head 90 degrees to the left

Lol. If that ain’t proof the NAO turns the PNA on, I don’t know what is.

 

When you think about it, the Pacific has been “going it alone” this winter (for the most part), without any downstream help since November. I think the results have spoken for themselves.

[Geos]

Just now cracking 40 for the day. Chilly damp day.

[Jbolin]

Lol. If that ain’t proof the NAO turns the PNA on, I don’t know what is.

 

When you think about it, the Pacific has been “going it alone” this winter (for the most part), without any downstream help since November. I think the results have spoken for themselves.

D**n straight 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I don't see how most if not all of us in the valley won't at least get some flakes in the air, even without accumulation.

 

Well if there isn't moisture when the cold air arrives...

[HighlandExperience]

 why is it an issue to say it was Joe Zagrodnik?

 

Good thing he will be wrong

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I am pretty ******* thrilled we could see an actual arctic front. 

 

I don't even remember the last time we had one of those... February 2011, November 2010?! The last one I can remember was November 2010. The December 14, 2008 one was also very defined!

 

Even the big arctic blasts in 2013/14 kind of filtered in. 

[Deweydog]

I am pretty f***** thrilled we could see an actual arctic front.

 

I don't even remember the last time we had one of those... February 2011, November 2010?! The last one I can remember was November 2010. The December 14, 2008 one was also very defined!

 

Even the big arctic blasts in 2013/14 kind of filtered in.

What suggests this will be different? This looks like a pretty typical bleed preceded by cold onshore flow.

[Tyler Mode]

Favor to ask, if you post a webcam image, can you post the actual image vs. a link?  If you are trying to show how deep the snow is etc, and it's a live image, the point doesn't come across.

 

[Jbolin]

 why is it an issue to say it was Joe Zagrodnik?

 

Good, you did your research, it doesn't detract from the fact that I'M NOT at liberty to divulge. Got it?

[Front Ranger]

Lol. If that ain’t proof the NAO turns the PNA on, I don’t know what is.

 

When you think about it, the Pacific has been “going it alone” this winter (for the most part), without any downstream help since November. I think the results have spoken for themselves.

 

This is kinda open to interpretation. Yeah, the winter has sucked mostly to this point in the PNW and most of the West, but it's been epic for much of MT and pretty darn cold over much of the country, especially the northern tier. Just looking at things from a bigger picture angle.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This is kinda open to interpretation. Yeah, the winter has sucked mostly to this point in the PNW and most of the West, but it's been epic for much of MT and pretty darn cold over much of the country, especially the northern tier. Just looking at things from a bigger picture angle.

 

60dTDeptUS.png

 

It is almost as if there is some kind of impenetrable geographical barrier preventing cold from reaching us! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What suggests this will be different? This looks like a pretty typical bleed preceded by cold onshore flow.

 

BUZZ KILL

 

I guess the fact the cold air seems to pour in pretty quickly on the models...

[Arctic Front]

Good, you did your research, it doesn't detract from the fact that I'M NOT at liberty to divulge. Got it?

By research, you mean use the search function? It's Twitter and it's public. If he didn't want people knowing his thoughts, he wouldn't tweet them.

[Jesse]

This is kinda open to interpretation. Yeah, the winter has sucked mostly to this point in the PNW and most of the West, but it's been epic for much of MT and pretty darn cold over much of the country, especially the northern tier. Just looking at things from a bigger picture angle.

 

60dTDeptUS.png

 

It's actually pretty unusual to see much of Montana that cold with basically nothing making it our way.

[Geos]

This is kinda open to interpretation. Yeah, the winter has sucked mostly to this point in the PNW and most of the West, but it's been epic for much of MT and pretty darn cold over much of the country, especially the northern tier. Just looking at things from a bigger picture angle.

 

60dTDeptUS.png

 

Continental Divide is pretty much the division between warm and cold.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I am pretty f***** thrilled we could see an actual arctic front. 

 

I don't even remember the last time we had one of those... February 2011, November 2010?! The last one I can remember was November 2010. The December 14, 2008 one was also very defined!

 

Even the big arctic blasts in 2013/14 kind of filtered in. 

A front like December 1990 would blow peoples minds around here. I still remember what this area can do when things are perfect. Been so long.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

What suggests this will be different? This looks like a pretty typical bleed preceded by cold onshore flow.

 

Be easy on him, He's the man on the silver mountain.

[Front Ranger]

It's actually pretty unusual to see much of Montana that cold with basically nothing making it our way.

Definitely. As sucky as things have been, it's not like the large-scale pattern has been all that far off from being good. Blocking has been there, and cold air has been close on several occasions.

 

Nothing at all like most of the suckfests of the past couple decades. Plus, this winter is about to actually deliver some real cold to the West.

[Jesse]

Definitely. As sucky as things have been, it's not like the large-scale pattern has been all that far off from being good. Blocking has been there, and cold air has been close on several occasions.

 

Nothing at all like most of the suckfests of the past couple decades. Plus, this winter is about to actually deliver some real cold to the West.

Doesn’t take away from Phil’s point that certain pattern drivers have been unfavorable for much of the far west until recently, though.

[Esquimalt]

Clown range, d10-15 18z GFS. Such a beautiful pattern.

 

Easy WHEM Hadley Cell contraction, convective ventilation of the deep tropics, large scale radiative loss to space via latent heat release in the mid/upper tropical troposphere, dehydration of the tropical stratosphere, reduced cloud cover at the pole, and increased cloud cover in the tropics.

 

What does this pattern mean for us in the PNW? More cooler than normal temperatures, without the arctic air I assume? 

[Front Ranger]

Doesn’t take away from Phil’s point that certain pattern drivers have been unfavorable for much of the far west until recently, though.

Well, that much is obvious. But he seemed to be inferring that the large scale pattern drivers are finally turning favorable for cold, when if you live in MT or anywhere in the northern tier, you've done just fine this winter without his coveted -NAO/-PNA combo.

 

The dominant factor this winter has undoubtedly been the -EPO, and that's not changing with this upcoming cold period. The main difference is it's finally a more favorable block for the West overall.

 

It may or may not be a direct result of the SSW. Sometimes those lead to good things for the West, sometimes they don't. Regardless, this cold season has had nice blocking since it started, which is why places as close as Montana have had the winter they've had. Not like we're seeing a flip from a 1999-00.

[Deweydog]

BUZZ KILL

 

I guess the fact the cold air seems to pour in pretty quickly on the models...

Maybe I'm missing something. I haven't been paying a ton of attention.

[BLI snowman]

I am pretty f***** thrilled we could see an actual arctic front.

 

I don't even remember the last time we had one of those... February 2011, November 2010?! The last one I can remember was November 2010. The December 14, 2008 one was also very defined!

 

Even the big arctic blasts in 2013/14 kind of filtered in.

It looks pretty anemic down here. Without much gorge outflow it's going to be tough to stay below 38-39 on Monday.