February Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Farmboy]

Not liking the dry slot over much of King county with the approaching system on the 12z gfs.

[Esquimalt]

The GFS is much warmer.  So is the GEM it would appear.  Still daytime highs will be 2 to 3 degrees below normal, but at this time of year that just doesn't cut it to get snow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yep, even at 1600' nothing interesting after tomorrow. 

[HighlandExperience]

Snowiest WRF run for King County. Decent 1-2 inches. +4 inches once you cross issaquah alps and areas east of hwy 18

[Jesse]

Emergen C!!!

[Esquimalt]

Yep, even at 1600' nothing interesting after tomorrow. 

The block on the GFS is shifted east and the trough is out in the north of bc and the prairies, so not good.  Looks a little better around hr 222

 

Edit: gets cold again around hr 264

[TT-SEA]

Snowiest WRF run for King County. Decent 1-2 inches. +4 inches once you cross issaquah alps and areas east of hwy 18

Looks my neighbors will have to plow our driveway so it looks lile somebody is home.

[Front Ranger]

GEM still looks very snowy for northern areas on Thursday. Pretty close for those south of Seattle, would just need a slight shift in the low.

 

EDIT: Also has more snow for the same areas on Saturday.

[Phil]

I’m honestly shocked at how quickly the subtropical Pacific/East-Asia system has reorganized, following the SSW/MJO. The March PDO number might actually finish negative, lol.

[Esquimalt]

I’m honestly shocked at how quickly the subtropical Pacific/East-Asia system has reorganized, following the SSW/MJO. The March PDO number might actually finish negative, lol.

What does this mean??

[Timmy]

I’m honestly shocked at how quickly the subtropical Pacific/East-Asia system has reorganized, following the SSW/MJO. The March PDO number might actually finish negative, lol.

lol, haha lmao

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Rain and 42 currently after a 41/36 yesterday

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Strange to see a low like that on the sat loop from that direction. Looks potent.

[Front Ranger]

Let's hope the Germans have something with the ICON. Not only does it show a lot more snow than most models on Sunday, it also shows a nice, nearly region-wide snowstorm on Wednesday night/Thursday.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well not like the GFS is terrible...Still cold in the LR especially. 

[ShawniganLake]

Low level cold not looking very impressive upstream this morning. Currently 19F in Prince George. With the 1990 outbreak it dropped to the mid -30’s up there.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Let's hope the Germans have something with the ICON. Not only does it show a lot more snow than most models on Sunday, it also shows a nice, nearly region-wide snowstorm on Wednesday night/Thursday.

I think it runs at higher res than euro and gfs.

[Esquimalt]

Well not like the GFS is terrible...Still cold in the LR especially. 

 

True, but we have been taunted so many times in the long range this winter.  I won't get up my hopes till it's within 150 hrs.  Talk to me then   

[HighlandExperience]

Let's hope the Germans have something with the ICON. Not only does it show a lot more snow than most models on Sunday, it also shows a nice, nearly region-wide snowstorm on Wednesday night/Thursday.

Germans make good products.

 

In all seriousness what it shows would be amazing

[Phil]

What does this mean??

More typical Niña/-QBO pattern (consolidated and equatorward NPAC high) reinforced by the SSW/BDC feedback(s) on tropical static stability.

 

This, of course, will occur underneath any future intraseasonal/MJO forcings which may arise.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Germans make good products

Work on there cars then see what u think.

[ShawniganLake]

True, but we have been taunted so many times in the long range this winter. I won't get up my hopes till it's within 150 hrs. Talk to me then

EPS hints at a colder pattern days 10-15 too.

[HighlandExperience]

[snow_wizard]

I think it runs at higher res than euro and gfs.

 

You can tell it does when you look at the surface pressure maps.  Much more detail.

[ShawniganLake]

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

You can tell it does when you look at the surface pressure maps.  Much more detail.

7k resolution.

[HighlandExperience]

You can tell it does when you look at the surface pressure maps. Much more detail.

Icon looks beautiful this week. Would make this winter special.

[snow_wizard]

The WRF seems convinced my area will get over an inch of snow.  Liking the new shot of snow it has showed for this area after the main event tomorrow.  Things will be really cold when that arrives.

[Phil]

Lmao..the GFS pulls another wave-2 at the very end.

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nhem&pkg=Tz10&runtime=2018021712&fh=-30

 

[snow_wizard]

Icon looks beautiful this week. Would make this winter special.

 

Even the GFS strongly hints at other cold shots coming and perhaps a significant one somewhere in the 6 to 10 day period.

[snow_wizard]

Overall the GFS is a thing of beauty.  At least one more full blown cold wave being shown.

[Front Ranger]

Low level cold not looking very impressive upstream this morning. Currently 19F in Prince George. With the 1990 outbreak it dropped to the mid -30’s up there.

 

It dropped to the -30s in Feb 1990 or Dec 1990?

 

Still about 12 hours until the really cold air is supposed to reach that area, Williams Lake, etc.

 

Somewhat encouraging that Kamloops is already down to 25.

[snow_wizard]

It dropped to the -30s in Feb 1990 or Dec 1990?

 

Still about 12 hours until the really cold air is supposed to reach that area, Williams Lake, etc.

 

Somewhat encouraging that Kamloops is already down to 25.

 

Indeed...the models show major CAA over BC during the day today.

[Front Ranger]

Indeed...the models show major CAA over BC during the day today.

 

Yeah, a lot of places in the 20s now should be in the single digits by midnight.

[Phil]

Lmao..the GFS pulls another wave-2 at the very end.

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nhem&pkg=Tz10&runtime=2018021712&fh=-30

 

This is actually quite important. Even keeping the shredded remains of the vortex away from the pole can prevent it from reforming.

 

Ironically, most Feb SSW events lead to stronger spring vortexes, but only if they reform and go baratropic. In very strong SSW events, like this one, the vortex can fail to reestablish.

 

I believe Feb 1989 is the most recent example of this progression, and that was a +QBO/solar max year depositing westerly momentum. We’re depositing easterly momentum this year w/ -QBO/solar min.

 

This is a unique situation in our period of records.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Icon vs gfs. I'm very interested to see rhe final results.

[ShawniganLake]

It dropped to the -30s in Feb 1990 or Dec 1990?

 

Still about 12 hours until the really cold air is supposed to reach that area, Williams Lake, etc.

 

Somewhat encouraging that Kamloops is already down to 25.

Prince George’s record low for today is -34F from 1990.

Looks like the front has passed there. Currently 19F with a 30mph north wind and dropping dew point.

 

Williams lake dropped to -28F with the 1990 airmass.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Looking potent on the water vapor loop.

[snow_wizard]

This is actually quite important. Even keeping the shredded remains of the vortex away from the pole can prevent it from reforming.

 

Ironically, most Feb SSW events lead to stronger spring vortexes, but only if they reform and go baratropic. In very strong SSW events, like this one, the vortex can fail to reestablish.

 

I believe Feb 1989 is the most recent example of this progression, and that was a +QBO/solar max year depositing westerly momentum. We’re depositing easterly momentum this year w/ -QBO/solar min.

 

This is a unique situation in our period of records.

 

The reaction of the global weather patterns clearly shows this is something special.  The next two weeks look really cold here overall.  

[snow_wizard]

Prince George’s record low for today is -34F from 1990.

Looks like the front has passed there. Currently 19F with a 30mph north wind and dropping dew point.

 

Looking at the mesonet map there is clearly a very strong Arctic front over northern BC.  I see one case where it +27F over northern BC and -23 just north of there.