February Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Low coming in already deeper than modeled. Looks like already about 997mb.

[Front Ranger]

Prince George’s record low for today is -34F from 1990.

Looks like the front has passed there. Currently 19F with a 30mph north wind and dropping dew point.

 

Williams lake dropped to -28F with the 1990 airmass.

 

Wow, that's impressive. Certainly aren't expected to get anywhere close to that cold with this air mass.

 

Kind of surprising it didn't get colder in WA/OR in 1990 with that kind of cold nearby.

[Farmboy]

This is actually quite important. Even keeping the shredded remains of the vortex away from the pole can prevent it from reforming.

 

Ironically, most Feb SSW events lead to stronger spring vortexes, but only if they reform and go baratropic. In very strong SSW events, like this one, the vortex can fail to reestablish.

 

I believe Feb 1989 is the most recent example of this progression, and that was a +QBO/solar max year depositing westerly momentum. We’re depositing easterly momentum this year w/ -QBO/solar min.

 

This is a unique situation in our period of records.

So, favorable for the PNW for snow/cold????

[ShawniganLake]

Wow, that's impressive. Certainly aren't expected to get anywhere close to that cold with this air mass.

 

Kind of surprising it didn't get colder in WA/OR in 1990 with that kind of cold nearby.

The forecast low tonight in Prince George is +3F.

[snow_wizard]

The GEFS is notably colder with the trough around day 10.  Something might be emerging in that time frame.  The analogs are certainly interesting as we get out to that time frame.  1951, 1955, 1990, etc.  This is only the beginning folks.

[Phil]

The reaction of the global weather patterns clearly shows this is something special. The next two weeks look really cold here overall.

Definitely.

 

Here’s the most recent solar min/-ENSO/-QBO analog with a major Feb SSW (Jan/Feb 2006).

 

This was also major “regime changer”. The system began priming for the flip to -PDO/-PNA/-NAM thereafter.

 

 

The only difference there is westerly shear was already descending from aloft and 50mb had already maxed out the easterly shear. We’re not quite there yet this year, and probably won’t be until sometime around the summer solstice.

 

Here the Jan 2013 event. Also a “regime changer”, as we flipped into a low frequency +WPAC/+NAO regime starting in April of that year, which solidified in 2014:

 

Note the whiplash recovery of the vortex, since the SSW occurred early enough (first week of Jan) in the radiative cycle to recover before the equinox. However, that year also had descending westerly shear with a maxed easterly at 50mb.

 

[snow_wizard]

The forecast low tonight in Prince George is +3F.

 

I think you are going to be pleased with how cold it gets.  Chances are the cold you are referring to in 1990 was the result of radiational cooling and thus fairly shallow.  In this case it is just now advecting in.

[snow_wizard]

Definitely.

 

Here’s the most recent solar min/-ENSO/-QBO analog with a major Feb SSW (Jan/Feb 2006).

 

This was also major “regime changer”. The system began priming for the flip to -PDO/-PNA/-NAM thereafter.

 

 

The only difference there is westerly shear was already descending from aloft and 50mb had already maxed out the easterly shear. We’re not quite there yet this year, and probably won’t be until sometime around the summer solstice.

 

Here the Jan 2013 event. Also a “regime changer”, as we flipped into a low frequency +WPAC/+NAO regime starting in April of that year, which solidified in 2014:

 

Note the whiplash recovery of the vortex, since the SSW occurred early enough (first week of Jan) in the radiative cycle to recover before the equinox. However, that year also had descending westerly shear with a maxed easterly at 50mb.

 

 

Interesting.  I think you could make the case this shakeup will likely be looked back on as a major regime shift.

[Phil]

Here’s the current event. It’s setting new records.

 

It’s easily more prolific than both Feb 2006 and Jan 2013 (in terms of the aggregate wind reversal @ 60N/10mb) relative to the starting point. It might be the longest lasting in this regard, as well, though Feb 1989 will be tough to beat.

 

[Geos]

ICON looks really good! 

 

[Blizzard777]

First batch of rowdy south winds have arrive as of 9:40 ! Fur trees really dancing! These fur trees unfortunately filter out the winds before reaching my anemometer. So far 19 mph gust on there.

Temp 46

[Geos]

Wind has been picking up steadily throughout the morning. Starting to see small branches snapping off now.

[snow_wizard]

ICON looks really good! 

 

 

I think I could live with that!  One interesting to note on the GFS is the fact the last three runs have shown a trend of gradually digging the trough out over the ocean a bit more.  Good if you want snow.  If the ICON is correct we will have some crazy low temps on Monday and Tuesday mornings.

[HighlandExperience]

Let’s hope Euro sticks closer to the icon and gem.

[TT-SEA]

Total snow through tomorrow at 4 p.m. per 12Z ECMWF... 

 

[Front Ranger]

The forecast low tonight in Prince George is +3F.

 

There will definitely be places in the BC interior that get much colder than that over the next few days.

[Jesse]

Total snow through tomorrow at 4 p.m. per 12Z ECMWF...

 

Seems like it keeps upping our totals down here. Not sure if it means much. But I’d definitely take 1-2”.

[Front Ranger]

The GEFS is notably colder with the trough around day 10.  Something might be emerging in that time frame.  The analogs are certainly interesting as we get out to that time frame.  1951, 1955, 1990, etc.  This is only the beginning folks.

 

Honestly, expecting more than the Sun/Mon event (in terms of cold/snow this time of year) is setting really high expectations.

 

It may only be the beginning of a cold/troughy period, but we'd be very lucky to see a deeper/colder trough than the one this weekend over the next couple weeks. In terms of dynamic events, this is probably the main attraction. That being said, plenty of potential for more lowland snowfalls and cold outflow.

[Front Ranger]

I think you are going to be pleased with how cold it gets.  Chances are the cold you are referring to in 1990 was the result of radiational cooling and thus fairly shallow.  In this case it is just now advecting in.

 

Great point.

[Blizzard777]

Down at Browns point on the sound with no obstructions winds gusting to 40 now!

[BLI snowman]

Seems like it keeps upping our totals down here. Not sure if it means much. But I’d definitely take 1-2”.

 

Yeah, it shows a dusting after that as well. Still light snow showers at 10pm tomorrow.

[Jesse]

I kept looking at the 12z GFS this morning and being confused at the negative outcry over it. I guess slightly higher thicknesses late next week. Ensembles are basically unchanged though.

[Front Ranger]

Euro looks much better than GFS at day 4.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

4 years since Victoria has had a sub freezing high. Could Monday end the streak?

 

7A3972F9-5C1D-44C2-8555-4CDA99B1D72A.png

 

That's true for the airport but here in Victoria proper we had a sub-freezing high at the start of Jan 2017. That was a pretty narrow band of outflow. Several other days had highs of 0.1C too, including one in February. That said, this airmass looks colder than anything we had last year, but I'm not sure if it will be enough to overcome the daytime heating in the absence of deep snow.

[Geos]

Total snow through tomorrow at 4 p.m. per 12Z ECMWF... 

 

 

My experience with Arctic fronts is that they're juicier and they move south faster than forecast.

I will say the EURO is under doing things.

[Jesse]

Yeah, it shows a dusting after that as well. Still light snow showers at 10pm tomorrow.

Yup, I have noticed a definite trend toward keeping precip around a little longer...without the cold air really being delayed at all. Nice combo.

[HighlandExperience]

I don’t have a w/b subscription and taking advantage of the free maps for euro on weather.us. Here is a zoom in view for King County.  LOL look at North Bend. 

[Front Ranger]

Euro looking much better for areas further south with the mid week system. Will be interesting to see snow maps.

[Jesse]

Wednesday sysytem definitely looking nicer on the Euro. Pretty Iconic look to the whole pattern.

[ShawniganLake]

There will definitely be places in the BC interior that get much colder than that over the next few days.

I would expect some -10 to -20 readings in the prime radiational cooling spots.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

ICON looks really good!

 

Looks fantastic! I think the ICON is going to be the most accurate when it comes to the Arctic Front.

[BLI snowman]

Yup, I have noticed a definite trend toward keeping precip around a little longer...without the cold air really being delayed at all. Nice combo.

 

4km WRF also gives us a quick band in the late evening tomorrow. I'm pretty skeptical of anything it's showing accumulating during the morning, but by 3-4pm we should be cold enough.

[Jesse]

I would expect some -10 to -20 readings in the prime radiational cooling spots.

Where did 850s bottom out with the 1990 event in the BC interior compared to this pattern?

[Front Ranger]

A little surprised that NWS Seattle hasn't issued any snowfall-related advisories... Not even a Special Weather Statement. Figured they would have by this morning.

 

Kind of odd.

 

It's a holiday weekend and it's the Seattle NWS. They often wait until it's basically a done deal before issuing anything that might possibly alarm the public or please weenies.

[BLI snowman]

Euro looking much better for areas further south with the mid week system. Will be interesting to see snow maps.

 

Yeah, looks like a round of snow on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning followed by another round on Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Energy dropping down the coast stays fairly west and is well positioned off of Newport at 120 hours.

[HighlandExperience]

It's a holiday weekend and it's the Seattle NWS. They often wait until it's basically a done deal before issuing anything that might possibly alarm the public or please weenies.

 

NWS is all federal employees. No one probably paying attention on a holiday weekend. 

[The Swamp]

It's a holiday weekend and it's the Seattle NWS. They often wait until it's basically a done deal before issuing anything that might possibly alarm the public or please weenies.

 

^^This

[Blizzard777]

Technically speaking is this a modified Arctic front that will be coming through? Looking like the trees are going to have two dance partners this weekend. The South and then the North wind! North wind should really bring in some good wave action at Redondo beach down here on the Sound.

 

Enjoying the storm already here

Toasty 47 degrees

[Front Ranger]

Yeah, looks like a round of snow on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning followed by another round on Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Energy dropping down the coast stays fairly west and is well positioned off of Newport at 120 hours.

 

Yep. And yet another shortwave starting to head south down the coast from AK at hour 144. The GEM didn't have that.

 

I'd post the weatherbell maps if I had them. Pretty likely this will be the snowiest run yet for a lot of people.

[Frontal Snowsquall]