February 8th-11th Major Snowstorm

[Tom]

18z NAM...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018021018/027/snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

[indianajohn]

so are we thinking this might over perform tonight?

[Niko]

For anyone who wants a little information on Lake Effect

 

http://michiganltap.org/system/files/WorkshopPresentations/C5-Keysor.pdf

Sometimes Lake Huron provides a lake effect. Considering how small the lake is, it can do the trick. Pretty amazing.

[Hawkeye]

I see the 18z NAM totally dried out eastern Iowa, and the last few HRRR runs have suddenly dried out this area as well.  It's certainly not going to be like last night with the heavy weenie band.

[Tom]

Radar trends in C IL look good...00z NAM coming in wetter for Chitown...

[Trinomial]

I wonder if the difference between the 12z and 18z NAM qpf was due to lack of weather balloon input?

[Tom]

I wonder if the difference between the 12z and 18z NAM qpf was due to lack of weather balloon input?

Most likely...personally, it didn’t fit trends among the models...

[MKEstorm]

Radar trends in C IL look good...00z NAM co hitming in wetter for Chitown...

Also wetter for MKE. depending on what the other 0z models show, we may be added to the WWA.

[hlcater]

Despite drying out earlier, all models have come back, giving the CR area 2." So I'm gonna meet both ends in the middle and expect 1"

[Minny_Weather]

Despite drying out earlier, all models have come back, giving the CR area 2." So I'm gonna meet both ends in the middle and expect 1"

Don't expect much. Coming from someone who's experiencing it right now. Everything is REALLY South.

[Hawkeye]

The HRRR this evening has trended toward a decent band setting up from sw IA through CR/IC.

[Andrew NE]

Don't expect much. Coming from someone who's experiencing it right now. Everything is REALLY South.

It may be stretch for someone even south of you to get the 2-4”. Looking like it’s drying up.

[hlcater]

The HRRR this evening has trended toward a decent band setting up from sw IA through CR/IC.

You should see the RAP lol

[Minny_Weather]

It may be stretch for someone even south of you to get the 2-4”. Looking like it’s drying up.

Southwest of me into KS likely ended up getting the highest totals from this. Major screwup by the models.

[bud2380]

The stuff in Illinois has a connective look to it almost. Chicago could really do well again tonight

[Tabitha]

0z NAM says its over 4 Nebraska.

[Niko]

HRRR is showing a decent amount of precipitation striking SEMI tomorrow. South of I-69 and north of M-59 will be jackpot. Could see some real high, surprised totals.

[Tabitha]

0z NAM says its over 4 Nebraska.

 

Powerful and devastating "Second Wave".

 

I shall remember it always...

[Tabitha]

I think this got lost in the paperwork:

 

 

The fact that the so-called "2nd Storm" is proving to be far, far weaker than every model had it progged to be is hardly surprising from a meteorological perspective.

 

It is very, very rare to have two consecutive powerful storms within a short time frame.

 

This is because the earth's energy field is in equilibrium; and hence the first storm will ALWAYS rob the energy that the second was supposed to tap.

 

The atmosphere always needs a period to settle down after undergoing the convulsion a powerful storm inflicts upon it.

 

There is only so much energy to go around. 

 

Thus you will almost never see two big storms...one right after the other...inside of 5 short days.

[Tabitha]

 Major screwup by the models.

 

 

It was a very long lead time for them.  In some cases; the snow hadn't even started...

[shakjen]

It’s a fine snow but coming down hard right now

[Madtown]

aww hell...in the HRRR i trust come on north baby.

[hlcater]

HRRR/RAP is sure gung-ho with the snow later tonight. I'm honestly not sure where the snow is coming from. Keeping my expected snow at 1"

[Hawkeye]

The HRRR keeps getting wetter with the focused band up through CR/IC, although it may be a bit too aggressive because nothing is reaching the ground here, yet.  Radar is showing a real nice band on the southeast edge, though, aimed at IC.

[bud2380]

Radar shows a nice band of snow right on top of me. But nothing is reaching the ground.

[Madtown]

Snow beginning to fall here

[james1976]

Weird cuz I'm on the northern edge with light radar returns but I'm getting snowfall.....

[MKEstorm]

Snowing here now.

[Sciascia]

Snow at ORD has been running about an inch per hour the last couple hours.

[Tom]

Just measured about 2.4"...it must have been coming down very hard a couple hours ago when those heavier returns came through.  Looks like a bit of a lull is approaching from the south.  From the looks of it, this system went farther north than previous forecasts.  The 00z Euro came in really juicy.

 

Radar trends don't look good for S MI and DTX area...

 

[Tom]

MKE has been doing pretty good with this system...I think they should have at least 2-3" down so far and more to come...WWA's have been expanded up into Sheboygan...

[Tom]

Impressive LOT update...#thundersnow

 

 

 

Another active early morning across the area, which has been the
norm for almost a week and a half, as it`s now a record-tying
ninth straight day with measurable snow in Chicago. Main changes
early this morning were to hit the heavier snow mention prior to
daybreak and increase snowfall amounts in an axis along/just north
of I-80. Also moved north the freezing rain threat to roughly
Pontiac to Valparaiso per observational trends.

Axis of moderate to heavy snow across the central CWA (roughly
along and north of I-80 and across Chicago) has brought sporadic
1/4SM visibility and multiple one inch plus hourly rates observed.
Even a couple reports of thundersnow in the southwest suburbs
were relayed to us. Regional radar imagery has indicated
convective/showery echoes racing north into the heavier snow axis,
and envision this lasting through 4 maybe 5 am. After that point,
the 850mb trough passes and the moisture and instability feed
ease. So snowfall totals through daybreak look to be on the order
of 2-5 inches north of I-80, with widespread snow covered roads.

 

[Tom]

My Grid now calls for 4-6"...hoping for the radar to fill back in later this morning...#overperformer

[Tom]

Dropped off my parents at the airport and the snow has practically let up over there, however, just a 10 min ride up the street to my place and its pounding...razor sharp cut-off....

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/LOT/N0Q/LOT.N0Q.20180211.1125.gif

[VMB443]

I’d say we have at least two inches, maybe a bit more. Certainly caught me off guard when I looked out the window this morning. What a week!

[Tom]

Tacked on another 0.8" bringing my total up to 3.2"...still snowing moderately...hope to score 4"

[Tom]

6:00am totals:

 

 

 

6AM: Official numbers from the 's: 3.2" CHI-O'Hare 3.5" CHI-Midway

[VMB443]

I’d say we are up to 3 here, I think I underestimated my last check - still snowing.

[Tom]

The NAM did well with the placement of the sharp cut-off of the snow on the southern edge, esp across MI....

 

00z NAM...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018021100/030/snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

00z GFS...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018021100/030/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[bud2380]

I took a few measurements outside my front door and averaged 2.5” overnight. That brings the weekly total to around 10” or maybe slightly more. I didn’t do as good a job of measuring as I would’ve liked