February 8th-11th Major Snowstorm

[GDR]

Wow pound town still outside can’t wait to get a measurement

[GDR]

Man it really puked snow overnight 5.7 inches and still snowing lightly

[Tom]

I'm hearing reports of up to 3" in McHenry county...just a dusting over here...looks like northern burbs got the best snow out of this wave...

[bud2380]

Well I can’t get an accurate measurement because I wasn’t able to clear off Thursdays snow but looks like we get 2.5-3” overnight. Very picturesque

[bud2380]

The further north models are showing 2-3” more tonight. NWS has me in 1-2”. Either way what a crazy few days of weather. What are some of the highest two day totals in Chicago area so far?

[Tom]

The further north models are showing 2-3” more tonight. NWS has me in 1-2”. Either way what a crazy few days of weather. What are some of the highest two day totals in Chicago area so far?

10-14" are common on the SW side, 7-9" in general in the W/NW burbs from the main system yesterday....N IN cashed in big with some 14-16" totals....all in all, after tonight/tomorrow's wave this will be an incredible 3-day storm system.

[bud2380]

NAM showing 6”+ for the quad cities tonight. 3” for CR and 4”+ for Iowa City.

[Tom]

12z NAM still suggesting a solid 3-6" overnight into the early morning hours of Sunday...my parents flight out of ORD around 7:00am  may be delayed if this happens..

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018021012/027/snku_024h.us_mw.png

[Meichel]

I'm hearing reports of up to 3" in McHenry county...just a dusting over here...looks like northern burbs got the best snow out of this wave...

I can confirm 3" and still snowing in Lake in the Hills.

[Tom]

I can confirm 3" and still snowing in Lake in the Hills.

Nice!  How have you been?  Haven't seen you on here in a while.  Glad to hear your cashin' in...btw, what did you end up with yesterday??

[Tom]

For example; Chicago O'Hare had a three day total of 9.5"; but just to the west; Rockford, Illinois saw 7.0"...and the numbers diminished further as one moved westward.

It's odd that RFD saw 7.0 when its neighbor city of Belvidere saw 9"...

[Meichel]

Nice!  How have you been?  Haven't seen you on here in a while.  Glad to hear your cashin' in...btw, what did you end up with yesterday??

I'm good, thanks.

 

No official measurement yesterday, as I was out in the storm, but the official Crystal Lake total of 6" seemed accurate. I hate pixie dust. Stuff stacks too well. Shoveling wasn't fun. It was just too wet, air temp rose from around 20F to 25F during the highest snowfall rates. Seems to be why most of the accumulation forecasts ended up low-end.

[BrianJK]

Therefore, by studying the snow totals pattern from the event; it is apparent that much of the snow was lake-enhanced (rather than Lake Effect)...and the degree of synoptic impressiveness....from a barometric depth perspective...was really quite pedestrian.

  

http://tribwgntv.files.wordpress.com/2018/02/feature02102018.jpg?quality=85&strip=all

This snowfall map does not display any signal of lake enhancement. It’s simply depicts the banding that was predicted, just a couple counties south where originally anticipated.

[Tom]

Well, I am certainly no authority on the climatology of the Chicagoland area...but I would imagine that if a Low moves south of that city....and the wind veers to the NE at the stations west of Lake Michigan...and snow totals are heaviest downwind of that Lake...it would be rather hard to argue that it didn't help just a bit.

850's were to warm which resulted in craptastic inversion heights...so, yes, Lehs did not add to any totals in NE IL...this time of year you need true arctic air nearby.

[Tom]

A nice weenie band just blossomed across Kane/DuPage/N Cook which has some nice 20-25dbz returns...big fatty flakes just beginning to fly over here....this just adds to the beautiful wintry scene across Chicagoland....

 

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/LOT/N0Q/LOT.N0Q.20180210.1446.gif

[Meichel]

A nice weenie band just blossomed across Kane/DuPage/N Cook which has some nice 20-25dbz returns...big fatty flakes just beginning to fly over here....this just adds to the beautiful wintry scene across Chicagoland....

 

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/LOT/N0Q/LOT.N0Q.20180210.1446.gif

Looks like I'm getting clipped by that band, and my flakes just changed from fat and fluffy back to pixie dust.

 

Edit: had a much smaller 20-25 dbz band that's already dissipated. 

[FV-Mike]

Getting ready to head up to Schaumburg. Big flakes flying, as wintry as you can get out there

[Meichel]

Getting ready to head up to Schaumburg. Big flakes flying, as wintry as you can get out there

Is that where your accounts are? Mine are all within a couple blocks of I90, between Roselle Rd & Meacham Rd.

[BrianJK]

Well, I am certainly no authority on the climatology of the Chicagoland area...but I would imagine that if a Low moves south of that city....and the wind veers to the NE at the stations west of Lake Michigan...and snow totals are heaviest downwind of that Lake...it would be rather hard to argue that it didn't help just a bit.

 

 

Therefore, by studying the snow totals pattern from the event; it is apparent that much of the snow was lake-enhanced (rather than Lake Effect)...and the degree of synoptic impressiveness....from a barometric depth perspective...was really quite pedestrian.

 

So which one you going with?

[Niko]

Heavy snow currently and temp @ 22F.

[Tom]

Getting ready to head up to Schaumburg. Big flakes flying, as wintry as you can get out there

These are giant flakes! I would guess half dollar size for sure...very similar to LES...bring it!

[BrianJK]

I respectfully dissent.

 

The heaviest snowfall is SW of Lake Michigan....exactly where it should be in a lake-enhanced event....because as the surface low moved south of Chicago, the 2m wind would veer to the Northeast...putting down the heaviest snow exactly in the place it is depicted.

 

Wrong

 

Well, I am certainly no authority on the climatology of the Chicagoland area...but I would imagine that if a Low moves south of that city....and the wind veers to the NE at the stations west of Lake Michigan...and snow totals are heaviest downwind of that Lake...it would be rather hard to argue that it didn't help just a bit.

 

Correct

[Tom]

Absolute rip city over here!  Just beauteous to see this intense band during the day time...heaviest snowfall rates of the season no doubt....1"+/hr stuff....

[BrianJK]

So...tell me...how am I "wrong"?

 

I mean, beyond your subjective and invidious characterization...

 

Thought I already did.  There was very little, if any, lake enhancement from this system. 

 

You said "it is apparent that much of the snow was lake-enhanced". 

 

Ergo, you're wrong.

[BrianJK]

Absolute rip city over here!  Just beauteous to see this intense band during the day time...heaviest snowfall rates of the season no doubt....1"+/hr stuff....

 

Was a little disappointed when all I saw was a dusting this morning.  This band is making up for it.

[BrianJK]

That is a simple, blanket assertion...albeit a false one....entirely w/o supporting evidence.

 

It is on the same level as saying that water is dry or gravity is a myth.

 

Not even close.

[Tony]

Absolute rip city over here! Just beauteous to see this intense band during the day time...heaviest snowfall rates of the season no doubt....1"+/hr stuff....

A very nice refresher. Winter wonderland out here

[hlcater]

Looks like about a 3”er give or take, not bad at all. Especially considering I was expecting very little. If this system tonight drops an inch, the blunder that was the first event will be rectifified. Can’t tell what IC got, but I’m seeing a few 6” LSRs in southern iowa.

[Tom]

Was a little disappointed when all I saw was a dusting this morning. This band is making up for it.

Agree! 0.8” so far...nice refresher...

[BrianJK]

*A triumphant Tabitha declares victory over "BrianJK"..and anyone else who might find themselves in concordance with his views*

 

Your position: it is apparent that much of the snow was lake-enhanced

 

My position: There was very little, if any, lake enhancement from this system

 

How about this...  We will obtain an independent expert opinion (Izzi from NWS, Tom Skilling, etc.) and whichever one of us is proven wrong agrees to not post on this forum for 1 year?

 

Do you accept?

[Tom]

12z GFS is a bit lighter in snowfall but still a general 2-4" across the lower lakes...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018021012/033/snku_024h.us_mw.png

[james1976]

I got clipped last night from that wave......just 0.2". Looks like Ill get missed from tonight's wave. Cant win em all! Still got over 6" total from this 3 day event.

[westMJim]

Will not get into the lake enhanced argument, but here in Michigan on the east side of the lake some of the most snow fall amounts were reported in the far SW part of the state Dowagiac 15.0" Cassopolis 14.0" Niles 11.5"  anyone have a lake/non lake enhanced explanation for that with a NE wind.  

[Tom]

Will not get into the lake enhanced argument, but here in Michigan on the east side of the lake some of the most snow fall amounts were reported in the far SW part of the state Dowagiac 15.0" Cassopolis 14.0" Niles 11.5"  anyone have a lake/non lake enhanced explanation for that with a NE wind.  

All I would like to do is provide some "real" evidence and that is the last 200 images on radar that should put this convo to rest...the only evidence of Lake Effect or Lake enhancement is towards the tail end of the radar loop showing up from a teeny tiny lake plume into NW IN.  You can draw your own conclusions from here.

 

 

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=LOT-N0Q-1-200#

[Tom]

12z RGEM...

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rdps/2018021012/033/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[westMJim]

For anyone who wants a little information on Lake Effect

 

http://michiganltap.org/system/files/WorkshopPresentations/C5-Keysor.pdf

[Hawkeye]

I picked up a nice 3.0 inches overnight, which included moderate to heavy snow for a couple hours and the heaviest burst of the season for about 15 minutes.  I'm hoping for one final inch tonight before we head into a warmer, drier pattern.

[Madtown]

looks like one or 2 in tonight!

[Niko]

Still snowing lightly and a heavier band on my west coming in soon. Looks like we finally get a break later this afternoon into early evening b4 the next round comes in. That could lay down several inches. Latest indications are a good swath of 3-5".

[Tom]

12z Euro has a better developed wave tracking up the OV...its been trending in the right direction.  I suspect WWA's to be issued with today's AFD...