Tom Posted February 21, 2018 Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 Based on the knowledge of the LRC, I'm inclined to believe that we will see a rather vigorous storm system ejecting out of the CO Rockies into the central Plains and eventually cutting up towards the GL's. There is rather convincing ensemble agreement that a potential major storm takes shape this weekend. Let's discuss.... The latest GEFS are trending stronger and wetter across the Plains and Upper MW... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 21, 2018 Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 NWS Hastings AFD:: Precipitation chances returns to the area early Sat morning through Sat evening, but there are differences with how strong/organized the system is, will it be a closed system or an open wave. Kept precipitation type simple at this point with it being several days away, but at this point would think much of it would be snow, with more uncertainty for ssern portions of the County Warning Area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 21, 2018 Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 0z ICON with a big jump NW from 12z and 18z. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 21, 2018 Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 Not a good trend for se nebraska today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 21, 2018 Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 Def nw this run gfs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 21, 2018 Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 Nam and gfs world aparts at hr 84 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted February 21, 2018 Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 Damnit. Every time a thread is started it jinxes us here. lol 1 Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 21, 2018 Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 GFS north. I am on Southern edge. Looks like precipitation issues Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 21, 2018 Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 Looks like thermals an issue here at 90. Might not last too long though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 21, 2018 Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 Gem takes the low from central IL to central MI Crush job here https://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/135_100.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 21, 2018 Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 Check out the differences in H pressure at 72 GFS https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018022100&fh=72 GEM https://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/492_100.gif GEM has a 1025 H over southern IA while GFS is north into northern parts of minny Big implications in the track because of it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 21, 2018 Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 GFS blitzer. That’s at 10:1. Also includes the Thursday system Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 21, 2018 Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 Nam has the high pressure over IA as well http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2018022100&fh=72&r=conus&dpdt= So it’s basically Nam/GEM vs icon/gfs so far Let’s see what ukie and euro say Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 21, 2018 Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 Nam has the high pressure over IA as wellhttp://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2018022100&fh=72&r=conus&dpdt=So it’s basically Nam/GEM vs icon/gfs so far Let’s see what ukie and euro sayI love these showdowns. You got this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 21, 2018 Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 2"of crust....ill pass.Few days to go yet however. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 21, 2018 Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 I love these showdowns. You got this one.I rather be in your area right now Gfs got this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 21, 2018 Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 Ukie only goes out to 72 I guess It’s 8 mb weaker than gfs tho at hr 72 http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=096&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=072 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted February 21, 2018 Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 I'm just glad to see some drought relief. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 21, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 00z Euro...includes the earlier system... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 21, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 Starting to see some consistency between the GEFS/EPS with this one and its remarkably similar to the track the Oct 6th/7th storm took. 00z GEFS total qpf looks mighty juicy as well does the 00z EPS snow mean. IMO, this is a C NE/NW IA/MN/N WI snow storm... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 21, 2018 Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 Alright keep it that way Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 21, 2018 Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 SPS gonna get crushed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted February 21, 2018 Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 Arkansas is going to have some serious flooding issues! Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 21, 2018 Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 SPS gonna get crushed12z ICON says differently fwiw. Probably not worth too much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 21, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 12z GFS not backing down on a MSP crush job... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 21, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 That’s a beauty right there...going neg tilt at the perfect spot 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 21, 2018 Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 Oh my.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 21, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 According to the GFS, this run official bombs it out in 24 hours (1002mb into a 978mb storm)... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted February 21, 2018 Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 Hopefully we can keep this look going. Things have been trending up so far instead of backing down. It seems that it is usually opposite. From what I have seen models usually overdo wrapped up systems and can underdo open waves passing through the region in the medium/long range, leading to some surprises. Definitely liking the looks of this, especially since the Euro is somewhere in the ballpark. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 21, 2018 Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 That’s one heck of a storm it’s showing no doubt. 12z GEM starting to play catch up. 999 low as it crosses northern Lake Michigan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 21, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 Holy crap are the GEFS juiced up for MN Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 21, 2018 Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 Holy crap are the GEFS juiced up for MNHaven’t seen something like this in a long time...both consistency and precip amounts. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 21, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 Haven’t seen something like this in a long time...both consistency and precip amounts.Just better hope this doesn’t do the NW trend if the stronger solutions continue. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 21, 2018 Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 Just better hope this doesn’t do the NW trend if the stronger solutions continue.Always a concern for sure. I plan for the worst and hope for the best. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted February 21, 2018 Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 Euro taking the goods straight through Norfolk. It's like the atmosphere doesn't know any different and this is the only thing it knows how to do. 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 21, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 12z Euro jumps onboard with an amped solution... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted February 21, 2018 Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 stick a fork in this one for Lincoln 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 21, 2018 Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 12Z Euro looks like a nice hit from my area to the northeast through Norfolk (no surprise there). Only seeing the weather.us images, so hard to tell amounts, possibly 8+ I think in some places. (colors very hard to read so might be off). If anyone has the Euro snow map and can post it, that is always appreciated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted February 21, 2018 Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 I plan for the worst and hope for the best. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f1OCE3fh2dg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted February 21, 2018 Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 Damnit Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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