March Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

Its also the middle of March and the grass is always green and there are always blossoming trees and flowers by this point here.

 

Our latitude is extremely deceiving. Go visit other places at this latitude such as in Minnesota or North Dakota or Maine or in Russia right now. There is literally no sign of spring. Everything is still in deep dormancy. Its very brown... strikingly brown if there is no snow.

 

It is never like that here even in the dead of winter.

 

And now it looks like this at 450 feet in elevation at 47.29 degrees north latitude at the base of the Cascade Mountains... even after a record setting cold spell in the last half of February.

 

FWIW, even though our springs typically start later than yours, I think you’d enjoy them greatly. Lots of pretty flowers and uncomfortably warm days (which is probably the clincher for you, lol).

 

I remember taking these after our first “hot” day sometime last April. Was on my way home from work and the neighborhood was just alive with color. It all just came to life during a span of a few days.

 

 

 

 

 

[seattleweatherguy]

Total snow per the 00Z ECMWF...

 

Not a lot but something for sure

[snow_wizard]

Its also the middle of March and the grass is always green and there are always blossoming trees and flowers by this point here.   

 

Our latitude is extremely deceiving.   Go visit other places at this latitude such as in Minnesota or North Dakota or Maine or in Russia right now.   There is literally no sign of spring.   Everything is still in deep dormancy.   Its very brown... strikingly brown if there is no snow.   

 

It is never like that here even in the dead of winter.

 

And now it looks like this at 450 feet in elevation at 47.29 degrees north latitude at the base of the Cascade Mountains... even after a record setting cold spell in the last half of February.  

 

 

I'm betting 1955 was still very dormant here in mid March.  Probably years like 1951 and 1971 as well.  We kind of make up for the early spring stuff here with our ability to compete with many parts of the country in November anyway.  As I've said I'm not real interested in doing these kinds of comparisons.  I know the limitations of this climate and I will relocate elsewhere when I'm able.

[snow_wizard]

FWIW, even though our springs typically start later than yours, I think you’d enjoy them greatly. Lots of pretty flowers and uncomfortably warm days (which is probably the clincher for you, lol).

 

I remember taking these after our first “hot” day sometime last April. Was on my way home from work and the neighborhood was just alive with color. It all just came to life during a span of a few days.

 

 

 

 

 

 

OMG!  Clear skies and blossoms happen in other places too?

[Phil]

OMG! Clear skies and blossoms happen in other places too?

 

Yeah, who woulda thunk it?

[TT-SEA]

OMG! Clear skies and blossoms happen in other places too?

Even happens in Minnesota eventually.

 

In May!

 

I love our early blossoming trees.

[snow_wizard]

Besides the snow the ECMWF also shows more freezing low temps coming up.   

[Phil]

Besides the snow the ECMWF also shows more freezing low temps coming up.

Those cherry blossoms might be in trouble!

[TT-SEA]

Those cherry blossoms might be in trouble!

 

Nahhhh... they will be fine.    Even most of the snow chances happen when its still above freezing.   

[Phil]

I'm betting 1955 was still very dormant here in mid March. Probably years like 1951 and 1971 as well. We kind of make up for the early spring stuff here with our ability to compete with many parts of the country in November anyway. As I've said I'm not real interested in doing these kinds of comparisons. I know the limitations of this climate and I will relocate elsewhere when I'm able.

That part is true. You guys definitely seem to start your cold season earlier than the rest of the country east of the Rockies. November is mild as f**k here. So is the first half of December.

[TT-SEA]

That part is true. You guys definitely seem to start your cold season earlier than the rest of the country east of the Rockies. November is mild as f**k here. Even the first half of December is often just an extension of autumn.

 

Not in the Midwest.   

 

Winter comes way earlier and stays way longer there.

[snow_wizard]

Not in the Midwest.   

 

Winter comes way earlier and stays way longer there.

 

No question on that...at least the western part of that region.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Total snow per the 00Z ECMWF...

 

 

A 10:1 ratio is pretty generous for the time of year and airmass shown. I doubt it amounts to much below 2000 feet.

[Phil]

Not in the Midwest.

 

Winter comes way earlier and stays way longer there.

Fine, then I revise my original statement to “east of the Mississippi”. Same general point, though.

 

The West seems to lead the East in the seasonal transitions. Every year, you guys seem to enter into your winter pattern in October or November, while it takes much longer for the deeper cold to build in here. Usually that happens after the winter solstice, towards the Holidays or sometime in January.

 

Spring and Fall also seem to starts much earlier out there than here. The only exception might be summer.

[TT-SEA]

A 10:1 ratio is pretty generous for the time of year and airmass shown. I doubt it amounts to much below 2000 feet.

Good point.

 

Also interesting that the ECMWF shows highs in the mid 40s and low in the mid 30s on Friday and Saturday when its shows all the snow.

[TT-SEA]

Fine, then I revise my original statement to “east of the Mississippi”. Same general point, though.

 

The West seems to lead the East in the seasonal transitions. Every year, you guys seem to enter into your winter pattern in October or November, while it takes much longer (usually until the winter solstice or sometime in January) for the deeper cold to build in here.

 

Spring and Fall also seem to starts much earlier out there than here. The only exception might be summer.

Real summer starts stupidly late here on average. Seems like we spend half the year in spring.

[Phil]

Real summer starts stupidly late here on average. Seems like we spend half the year in spring.

The map king (Brian Brettschnieder) would concur.

 

And lol it’s the exact opposite here..stupidly short springs and stupidly long autumns.

 

[Jesse]

Just got home, and there are piles of pea-sized hail around. We’ve been gone since the afternoon. Must have been a sizable hailstorm here earlier.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

06z gfs is mehhhh

[Farmboy]

Long post, but since I work with trees it’s also something I’m passionate about.

 

I’ve also noticed some fascinating, species-specific adaptation mechanisms after studying the tree damage following “extreme” wind events such as the great blowdown on 7/25/10, and the progressive derecho on 6/29/12, both of which produced swaths of winds over 100mph.

 

At those “extreme” levels, all trees become vulnerable and in the worst hit areas, they all suffered damage. However each species also responded differently.

 

In the extreme wind areas:

 

- The heavy wood of the large Oaks and Sycamores prevented excessive breakage, but their root systems often failed, and the entire tree would topple over, lifting up massive chunks of Earth in the process. The trees that survived had their leaves largely shredded by the winds.

 

- The Tulip Poplars did the opposite, and essentially shed all of their peripheral branches, leaving the structural skeleton intact, which could later regrow from. It’s a brilliant strategy IMO, and it makes sense because these trees mark the first stage of forest succession, which often involves exposure to elements.

 

- White Pine, Loblolly Pine, and Douglas Fir all responded by snapping off, either just above the ground or higher up the tree somewhere. There were isolated cases of White Pine uprooting, but I didn’t see any uprooted Douglas Fir or Loblolly Pine. Also, Douglas Fir usually snapped higher up, while White Pine snapped lower. Loblolly Pine showed no preference for either.

 

- Canadian Hemlock displayed no strong tendency towards any type of damage. Most were snapped halfway up like Douglas Fir, but many were also uprooted, and others were just leaning over in the ground.

 

- Black Locust sort of just crumbled. They had all kinds of broken branches everywhere. Some look like they’d been blown up by dynamite.

 

- The various Maples also tended to uproot but displayed more significant breakage in their crowns. A few were just blasted throughout the crown, like Black Locust. The one exception was Norway Maple, which were mostly uprooted.

 

- Cottonwood did the best of all the trees IMO. When they succumbed it was usually via bow breakage but many trees simply lost all of their leaves and stood intact with some moderate breakage higher up. The ones that uprooted were always very old/huge.

 

In all, it really educated me on what trees to plant, and where.

Just curious, do you work with any Douglas firs over there? Are there any requests for them in landscapes? Just wondering how they would do in that climate...

 

I know there is an arboretum in England where there many different species from all over the world, including Doug firs, and from the pics I've seen of them they seemed to be doing just fine, of course pretty big difference between Maryland's climate and England...

[HighlandExperience]

Real summer starts stupidly late here on average. Seems like we spend half the year in spring.

Exactly. I don’t care though I like it.

 

Summers in DC can be long and miserable. I prefer our dull long spring. Imo Seattle has the best summers in the country.

[Phil]

Just curious, do you work with any Douglas firs over there? Are there any requests for them in landscapes? Just wondering how they would do in that climate...

 

I know there is an arboretum in England where there many different species from all over the world, including Doug firs, and from the pics I've seen of them they seemed to be doing just fine, of course pretty big difference between Maryland's climate and England...

Douglas doesn’t grow naturally here, but because people like to plant it for aesthetic enhancement, we do work with it occasionally.

 

It definitely doesn’t perform well here when exposed all by itself. It also doesn’t grow super tall here like out West due to cavitation. Instead, it takes more of a shorter/fatter complexity. I think the tallest individual I’ve seen around here was ~ 65ft, but it’s usually in the 40-50ft range.

[Jesse]

06z gfs is mehhhh

Emasculates the trough. But the ensembles are better.

[TT-SEA]

Emasculates the trough. But the ensembles are better.

 

I like to think of a wet, cold trough as a mean b*tch... so you can't emasculate it.  

[Phil]

I like to think of a wet, cold trough as a mean b*tch... so you can't emasculate it.

Lol. Why did you leave San Diego again? I honestly can’t think of a better climate for you.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

44/35 yesterday with 0.29" of rain. Not bad.

[TT-SEA]

Lol. Why did you leave San Diego again?

 

I honestly can’t think of a better climate for you. :lD

 

Hawaii is even better... I could easily live there from November - March.  

[TT-SEA]

Seems to be a trend in the models to send the coldest air inland farther south into CA on Friday and Saturday.

 

Here is Saturday morning on the 12Z GFS... previous runs were significantly colder up here.

 

 

 

Here was the 12Z run yesterday at the same time:

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm not super excited about the late week trough. Doesn't really look like something that will deliver much more than 1-2" up here...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Seems to be a trend in the models to send the coldest air inland farther south into CA on Friday and Saturday.

 

Here is Saturday morning on the 12Z GFS... previous runs were significantly colder up here.

 

 

 

Here was the 12Z run yesterday at the same time:

 

 

Not much of a difference down here on cold air...But the precip isn't looking very impressive.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice trough in the long range. 

[ShawniganLake]

I'm not super excited about the late week trough. Doesn't really look like something that will deliver much more than 1-2" up here...

Looks like some chunky rain or wet snow in the air is the best most people will see. Just not cold enough for late March.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like some chunky rain or wet snow in the air is the best most people will see. Just not cold enough for late March.

 

It will be cold enough up here, especially 7p-7a, but the moisture doesn't look very impressive. Those March 2012 systems were accompanied by ridiculous amounts of precip.

[Front Ranger]

I could never live in Hawaii or San Diego. I love actual seasons.

[ShawniganLake]

It will be cold enough up here, especially 7p-7a, but the moisture doesn't look very impressive. Those March 2012 systems were accompanied by ridiculous amounts of precip.

That was a pretty unique month. Nothing even remotely memorable happened up here in 2012.

[TT-SEA]

I could never live in Hawaii or San Diego. I love actual seasons.

 

Yeah... maybe January - March would be better.

 

You still get seasons but it would be nice long break from the rain and clouds.    

 

San Diego does have some seasonality.   It gets dark there by 4:45 in the winter.   And there are lots of trees that flower in the spring.    Its not very dramatic but it is definitely noticeable.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That was a pretty unique month. Nothing even remotely memorable happened up here in 2012.

 

Wow. Most places in the Willamette Valley had multiple accumulating snowfalls capped by 3-8" on March 21-22. The Oregon Coast had a significant snow event on March 13th. I had 40" of snow here and almost 21" of precip. I believe it is the wettest March on record for much of the Willamette Valley. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Tim's gonna like the GEM in the long range.

[Jesse]

12z ensembles look good. You can see the spike toward zero on the operational on Saturday morning. It looks like that is an outlier compared to most members and the mean.

 

[TT-SEA]

Tim's gonna like the GEM in the long range.

 

The GEM has been doing that for a few runs now.   I just have no faith in the GEM beyond maybe 4 days.