March Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Lol. April 10th and beyond is fair game for the transition back to troughing, in my personal opinion.

 

If I miss by a few days, I don’t really care.

 

It goes zonal around April 1st on the 00Z GFS and stays that way.  

[bainbridgekid]

For my money the 1950s was the best decade to be alive period.  Great weather, music, cars, quality of life, etc.

Not if you were black . . .

 

Seriously though, nostalgia aside, by nearly every single objective measure you can think of, right now is the best time to be alive in human history. And it's not even close.

 

Worldwide, life expectancy has risen more in the last 50 years than the previous 1,000 combined. Access to healthcare, food, clean water, and information are at all-time highs. Meanwhile, disease, teenage pregnancy, famine, violent crime, and extreme poverty are at all-time lows.

 

The bad stuff makes the headlines, so it's easy to forget just how much progress we've made as a society and species, but when you step back from that, it is very clear just how much better we have things today.

[TT-SEA]

Upshot of Phil's post is that we should be trying to make the planet as warm as possible right now to ensure our survival when the Earth inevitably tries to freeze us out of existence.

[Phil]

Upshot of Phil's post is that we should be trying to make the planet as warm as possible to ensure our survival when the Earth inevitably tries to freeze us out of existence.

Lol, that’s funny.

 

Not make it as warm as possible (I’m not sure how much we can really do in the long run), but at least for the health of plants/agriculture, I’d like to somehow keep CO^2 stable between 400-500ppm over the next several thousand years. Perhaps higher. No question that the Earth has been greening up as carbon has increased.

 

We only have a few hundred years of fossil fuels left, though. So it’s not a long term solution.

[TT-SEA]

Lol, that’s funny.

 

Not make it as warm as possible (I’m not sure how much we can really do in the long run), but at least for the health of plants/agriculture, I’d like to somehow keep CO^2 stable between 400-500ppm over the next 5,000 years. Perhaps higher.

I am really worried about the 3,000 to 5,000 year period. I will be getting older then and old people like warmth... as evidenced by Florida.

 

I will be sure to start polluting more... build up that blanket!

[Phil]

I am really worried about the 3,000 to 5,000 year period. I will be getting older then and old people like warmth... as evidenced by Florida.

If you so desire, you can care about people other than yourself..even those not with us yet.

 

At this rate the universe will probably reincarnate your a** back here during the next glacial maximum, in the middle of the coldest, snowiest July ever recorded in San Francisco.

[TT-SEA]

You can care about people other than yourself.

 

At this rate the universe will probably reincarnate your a** back here during the next glacial maximum.

The universe is a ruthless b*tch. We are but a tiny grain of sand on a beach that stretches for a thousand miles.

[TT-SEA]

If you so desire, you can care about people other than yourself..even those not with us yet.

 

At this rate the universe will probably reincarnate your a** back here during the next glacial maximum, in the middle of the coldest, snowiest July ever recorded in San Francisco.

And that would be a short reincarnation trip. Can't last long in those conditions. Maybe the next trip after that will be to a tropical Earth.

[Phil]

It goes zonal around April 1st on the 00Z GFS and stays that way.

Lucky for you, the GEFS doesn’t agree.

 

But yeah, the 00z cancels the Greenland vortex and develops a monster block instead. +Jesse index.

 

[Front Ranger]

Not if you were black . . .

 

Seriously though, nostalgia aside, by nearly every single objective measure you can think of, right now is the best time to be alive in human history. And it's not even close.

 

Worldwide, life expectancy has risen more in the last 50 years than the previous 1,000 combined. Access to healthcare, food, clean water, and information are at all-time highs. Meanwhile, disease, teenage pregnancy, famine, violent crime, and extreme poverty are at all-time lows.

 

The bad stuff makes the headlines, so it's easy to forget just how much progress we've made as a society and species, but when you step back from that, it is very clear just how much better we have things today.

This.

[Jesse]

Not if you were black . . .

 

Seriously though, nostalgia aside, by nearly every single objective measure you can think of, right now is the best time to be alive in human history. And it's not even close.

 

Worldwide, life expectancy has risen more in the last 50 years than the previous 1,000 combined. Access to healthcare, food, clean water, and information are at all-time highs. Meanwhile, disease, teenage pregnancy, famine, violent crime, and extreme poverty are at all-time lows.

 

The bad stuff makes the headlines, so it's easy to forget just how much progress we've made as a society and species, but when you step back from that, it is very clear just how much better we have things today.

Not so much if you are any sort of species other than human. Our explosive flourishing is inherently unsustainable, at the rate we are going. We can only make things great for humans at the expense of the planet for so long before it backfires on us.

[Front Ranger]

Not so much if you are any sort of species other than human. Our explosive flourishing is inherently unsustainable, at the rate we are going. We can only make things great for humans at the expense of the planet for so long before it backfires on us.

It could definitely be argued that humanity was inflicting more harm on the planet in the 1950s, though.

[Deweydog]

We'll be fine once 5g is up and running.

[Jesse]

It could definitely be argued that humanity was inflicting more harm on the planet in the 1950s, though.

Many inaccurate statements can be argued.

[Phil]

Not so much if you are any sort of species other than human. Our explosive flourishing is inherently unsustainable, at the rate we are going. We can only make things great for humans at the expense of the planet for so long before it backfires on us.

Rats, mosquitos, and grass have also been living luxuriously thanks to us. So technically, we’re not f**king everyone over.

 

But yeah, I think it’s safe to say the human population is nearing its peak over the next 50yrs. Not that the Earth is overcrowded or anything (far from it, so far), but I believe there are external factors capping population growth going forward. Agriculture and livestock require space, and the concept of individual land ownership is absurdly destructive and space-wasting.

[Phil]

It might not be an issue yet, but if the entire world was as “wealthy” as the west (and held the same values) we would have a space problem. You can only have so many rich dudes with five houses on 100 acre lots before things get stupid.

 

At some point we’ll need to live within our means. Wealth will spread. And with it, I suspect materialism will as well..sadly.

[Deweydog]

If dogs and cats join forces, as opposed to opposing each other for generations, then we're really f*cked.

[snow_wizard]

Very nice changes on the ECMWF tonight.  I've been expecting to gravitate toward the cold side of the envelope as the time frame narrows due to the recent propensity toward anomalous cold patterns.  It's been a while since we have been able to anticipate things breaking cold for us in situations where the models are uncertain.

 

Quite impressively the WRF now shows 925mb temps dropping to -2 over Seattle on Wednesday.  That kind of came out of the blue!

 

In other news I notched another freezing low temp this morning making 12 for the month.

[Jesse]

Very nice changes on the ECMWF tonight. I've been expecting to gravitate toward the cold side of the envelope as the time frame narrows due to the recent propensity toward anomalous cold patterns. It's been a while since we have been able to anticipate things breaking cold for us in situations where the models are uncertain.

 

Quite impressively the WRF now shows 925mb temps dropping to -2 over Seattle on Wednesday. That kind of came out of the blue!

 

In other news I notched another freezing low temp this morning making 12 for the month.

Yup, very nice to see the GFS, GFS ensemble and Euro trend a few notches colder in the short to mid term tonight.

 

Looks like the warm frontal drizzle situation has been shortened as we will be transitioning back to cool, dry northerly flow by midweek now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A little light snow this morning. A surprise dusting on the car. Still 2-3" of snow on the ground though I'd imagine that melts today. Hit 32 just before midnight and reached a low of 30 this morning. 22 freezes on the month now.

[Front Ranger]

Many inaccurate statements can be argued.

So a 1950s approach would be healthier for the planet? Sure, there were less people then, but also a lot less awareness/regulations on activities that are harmful.

[Phil]

This is incredible!!

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/03/26/super-compact-storm-imprints-razor-sharp-streak-of-snow-from-iowa-to-southwest-virginia/?__twitter_impression=true

[HighlandExperience]

So a 1950s approach would be healthier for the planet? Sure, there were less people then, but also a lot less awareness/regulations on activities that are harmful.

Right. There might be more people now but in the 1950s Lake Washington became a cesspool along with many of our water ways.

 

Not to mention the thousands of above ground nuclear detonations conducted by the US, China, and USSR

[Jesse]

Right. There might be more people now but in the 1950s Lake Washington became a cesspool along with many of our water ways.

 

Not to mention the thousands of above ground nuclear detonations conducted by the US, China, and USSR

Oh man. I was gonna let this one die but then someone else had to jump in and give the idea false credence; with a cherry picked local example then an almost wholly unrelated geopolitical one.

 

There is no comparison between now and the 1950s in terms of environmental destruction. First world countries such as the United States have more environmental laws now so we can feel good about ourselves, but that has been more than offset by the developing world. Of course population plays a huge role too. Even if the impact per capita is lower now in first world counties the fact that there are so many more people mitigates it.

 

You didn’t have the Pacific garbage patch in the 1950s, you didn’t have an ongoing mass extinction, the staggering global deforestation rates, the loss of open space every year. The list goes on and on.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Jessse hates his own species

[Front Ranger]

Oh man. I was gonna let this one die but then someone else had to jump in and give the idea false credence with a cherry picked local example than an almost wholly unrelated geopolitical one.

 

There is no comparison beteeen now and the 1950s in terms of environmental destruction. First world countries such as the United States have more environmental laws now so we can feel good about ourselves, but that has been more than offset by the developing world. Of course population plays a huge role too. Even if the impact per capita is lower now in first world counties the fact that there are so many more people mitigates it.

 

You didn’t have the Pacific garbage patch in the 1950s, you didn’t have an ongoing mass extinction, the staggering global deforestation rates, the loss of open space every year. The list goes on and on.

 

Actually, there was plenty of this and more.

 

But you make a fair point about the developing world. Although much more of the world is "developed" now than was the case in the 1950s. And population growth in first world countries now is much lower than it was in the 1950s. In fact, many first world countries' populations are relatively unchanged since then. The U.S. is an exception in that sense.

[TT-SEA]

Jesse is better l

 

I always wondered what Jesse looked like. Thanks for sharing.

To be fair... he is actually much more handsome.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS and 12Z GEM stuck to their respective 00Z run solutions. GFS is wet and cold starting Sunday and GEM is ridgy and dry.

 

12Z GFS looked like it was going towards the ECMWF and GEM through Saturday and then the trough just explodes over us on Sunday like its 00Z run. Like its destined to happen regardless of what happens beforehand.

[Jesse]

Jessse hates his own species

Yes, so much that I volunteered three years of my life to teach our younglings to read.

 

Seriously though, how would you get that out of my comments?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

April could be moist.

[Jesse]

Today is looking pretty chilly. Probably another high in the mid-40s for lots of places.

[Front Ranger]

April could be moist.

 

EPS is certainly indicating a cool zonal pattern starting around the 4th.

[TT-SEA]

EPS is certainly indicating a cool zonal pattern starting around the 4th.

 

12Z GFS ensembles going strongly in that direction starting next week as well.

[Phil]

Actually, there was plenty of this and more.

 

But you make a fair point about the developing world. Although much more of the world is "developed" now than was the case in the 1950s. And population growth in first world countries now is much lower than it was in the 1950s. In fact, many first world countries' populations are relatively unchanged since then. The U.S. is an exception in that sense.

Umm, I don’t think there’s any doubt that deforestation, overfishing, and ground-based chemical waste are more widespread issues today than they were in the 1950s, even if they’re less significant in wealthy, highly developed nations now. In particular, deforestation for agriculture and biomass is growing at an alarming rate throughout the developing world.

 

There have been global improvements as far as atmospheric pollution is concerned, namely the banning of CFCs and scrubbing technology to reduce Sulfur emissions from coal fired power plants. But that’s been more than offset by gound-based contamination and ecosystem destruction, generally speaking.

[Front Ranger]

Umm, I don’t think there’s any doubt that deforestation, overfishing, and ground-based chemical waste are more widespread issues today than they were in the 1950s, even if they’re less significant in wealthy, highly developed nations now. In particular, deforestation for agriculture and biomass is growing at an alarming rate throughout the developing world.

 

There have been global improvements as far as atmospheric pollution is concerned, namely the banning of CFCs and scrubbing technology to reduce Sulfur emissions from coal fired power plants. But that’s been more than offset by gound-based contamination and ecosystem destruction.

It would be nice to see some stats. From what I've read, deforestation depends on where you're talking about - some places are worse, some are better than 60-70 years ago.

 

Overfishing and overhunting was definitely more widespread in the 1950s and prior. Not to say it's still not a major issue some places.

 

Again, I think some actual stats/research would be helpful here.

[Blizzard777]

Someone last year flagged me to this site so just heads up for others that might not know about it. It’s motivating me to go rent a car and do this!

[Jesse]

Looks like the mountains are doing well this morning, even down in Oregon. The good news is a lot of the precipitation this week looks to be falling in the cold sector now, with the endless warm drizzle getting cut back.

[Jesse]

It appears the possibility of cold air making it in here the last few days of the month is back on. Amazing how much the models have gone back and forth with the set up this week.

 

[Jesse]

It would be nice to see some stats. From what I've read, deforestation depends on where you're talking about - some places are worse, some are better than 60-70 years ago.

Overfishing and overhunting was definitely more widespread in the 1950s and prior. Not to say it's still not a major issue some places.

Again, I think some actual stats/research would be helpful here.

I was waving my hand around in front of my face this morning. Well, at least I think it was my hand I was seeing. Need some stats to back it up.

[Front Ranger]

Looks like the mountains are doing well this morning, even down in Oregon. The good news is a lot of the precipitation this week looks to be falling in the cold sector now, with the endless warm drizzle getting cut back.

Tim has succeeded in making "endless" an automatic addition to warm drizzle.