March Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[seattleweatherguy]

2009 is when we hit 103 and 99 back to back days

[ShawniganLake]

I think I remember in 2009 we reached 86-90F for a few days in May, and had a few heatwaves.

 

Edit: wait, maybe that was 2008 not 2009.

2009 was the hot one. Seatac hit 103F in July.

[Front Ranger]

How was the summer of 1951 and 2006? Just warmer than normal and real dry?

 

Both summers were dry and warm, but not nearly as warm as 2009, 2015, etc. July 2006 had a major heatwave.

[MossMan]

2009 is when we hit 103 and 99 back to back days

That was awesome! But I love extremes...and have A/C.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF shows my favorite West Coast 'finger of warmth' on both days this weekend.    

 

Here is Easter Sunday...

 

[Front Ranger]

Endless warm fingers.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

How come we can only pull off warm anomalies? Record warm March followed by record warm April. Thanks Tim.

[TT-SEA]

Endless warm fingers.

 

Not really... but they are very enjoyable when they do happen.  

[TT-SEA]

How come we can only pull off warm anomalies? Record warm March followed by record warm April. Thanks Tim.

 

Just looking at PDX... February was below normal and March is running a little colder than February.   We have can have a couple nice days even in a cold month.   These days would be very well timed if it works out.   And only one of them would be in March anyways.

[Jesse]

Look like the models have scrapped anything of interest. Yawn...

[TT-SEA]

Look like the models have scrapped anything of interest. Yawn...

 

You said you were looking forward to some nice weather in early April.   

 

Looking a little better that there will be some nice days.    Use them wisely.  

[Front Ranger]

Look like the models have scrapped anything of interest. Yawn...

 

Phil's ridging idea may be making a comeback!

[TT-SEA]

The ECMWF is really cold for the middle of the country next week...

 

[Deweydog]

Euro is a train wreck with dead puppy sauce.

[Phil]

Weatherbells leading analogues for the summer are 1951 and 2006.

Both of those become El Niños by August and were +ENSO by May. Proceed with caution.

[Phil]

Phil's ridging idea may be making a comeback!

Lol.

 

Tropical forcing/AAM analogs > models 90% of the time. At least for large scale purposes.

[TT-SEA]

The ECMWF is really cold for the middle of the country next week...

 

 

 

FWIW... the 12Z EPS generally agrees.

 

[Phil]

When will it end? April 4th, and -30C 850s approach the northern border.

 

 

[Geos]

Rain shadow was working better this morning. Have had a drizzle falling for a couple hours now. 

[Phil]

OT, but IAD has now fallen below freezing for 22 straight days in March, a new all-time record. Just few years removed from the all-time March low of -1*F (2014).

 

Paging WxStatman for a frequency distribution.

[TT-SEA]

OT, but IAD has now fallen below freezing for 22 straight days in March, a new all-time record. Just few years removed from the all-time March low of -1*F (2014).

 

Paging WxStatman for a frequency distribution.

 

I was watching the Daily Show and The Opposition last night and they were at the march over the weekend in DC and made note of all the pretty flowering trees... joking that half the people there were probably only there for the cherry blossoms. 

[Phil]

Amarillo TX has been on the opposite end of the spectrum. They average 18” of snow per winter, but have had a snowless winter, and have been experiencing a drought pattern as well. The 4-corners region has been a hot/dry tinderbox over the last 4-5 months.

 

Usually that’s a hot summer indicator for the US, but there’s a chance we can circumvent it this year.

[TT-SEA]

Amarillo TX has been on the opposite end of the spectrum. They average 18” of snow per winter, but have had a snowless winter, and have been experiencing a drought pattern as well. The 4-corners region has been a hot/dry tinderbox over the last 4-5 months.

 

Tinderbox up here as well I guess... as some have noted.

 

Over 2 inches of rain here since Sunday night and Snoqualmie Summit is closed due to heavy rain... but I know that if the rain stops tomorrow then its right back to wildfires and smoke.  

 

#itmustneverstoprainingorwedie

[Phil]

I was watching the Daily Show and The Opposition last night and they were at the march over the weekend in DC and made note of all the pretty flowering trees... joking that half the people there were probably only there for the cherry blossoms.

Lol, barely anything is blooming here. Except the daffodils and some magnolias, of course. A few blooming shrubs like forsythia too.

 

But the grass and trees are still completely dormant. The cherry blossoms have had well-developed buds for weeks now, but are not flowering. That could (hopefully) change later this week with the warm spike, but then we crash back into the cold pattern afterwards.

[TT-SEA]

Lol, barely anything is blooming here. Except the daffodils and some magnolias, of course. A few blooming shrubs like forsythia too.

 

But the grass and trees are still completely dormant. The cherry blossoms have had well-developed buds for weeks now, but are not flowering. That could (hopefully) change later this week with the warm spike, but then we crash back into the cold pattern afterwards.

 

 

Skip to 5:30 in this video.   

 

I think those were actually magnolias now that I watch it again.   The whole segment on the march is actually pretty funny.  

 

http://www.cc.com/episodes/nx69mp/the-opposition-with-jordan-klepper-march-26--2018---michael-ian-black-season-1-ep-1083

[Phil]

I think the Euro weeklies are catching on now.

 

Weeks 2-5. Watch the NPAC/GOA..week 3 is obviously the transition period:

 

 

 

 

 

[Deweydog]

Bring on the traffic cam tour!

[Phil]

Skip to 5:30 in this video.

 

I think those were actually magnolias now that I watch it again. The whole segment on the march is actually pretty funny.

 

http://www.cc.com/episodes/nx69mp/the-opposition-with-jordan-klepper-march-26--2018---michael-ian-black-season-1-ep-1083

Yeah, those are Saucer Magnolias.

 

They’re much more responsive to the Sun than temperature, compared to Cherries. I’ve seen them bloom through nasty late season cold snaps (15-20*F) and come out just fine.

[Phil]

So if you ever move here and want spring flowers no matter what, plant Saucers. They can get pretty big too depending on which cultivar you choose..some can grow to 45ft high by 55ft wide.

[bainbridgekid]

Amarillo TX has been on the opposite end of the spectrum. They average 18” of snow per winter, but have had a snowless winter, and have been experiencing a drought pattern as well. The 4-corners region has been a hot/dry tinderbox over the last 4-5 months.

 

Usually that’s a hot summer indicator for the US, but there’s a chance we can circumvent it this year.

They've had some major blockbuster snowstorms in recent Winters though.

 

I remember they had 19" in one day in February, 2013 with drifts of like 7-10 feet. Easy to forget what that part of Texas is capable of.

[TT-SEA]

So if you ever move here and want spring flowers no matter what, plant Saucers. They can get pretty big too depending on which cultivar you choose..some can grow to 45ft high by 55ft wide.

 

Duly noted!  

[Jesse]

You said you were looking forward to some nice weather in early April.

 

Looking a little better that there will be some nice days. Use them wisely.

Something a little more dynamic would have been nice. Flat ridging this time of year can be pretty meh.

[TT-SEA]

Something a little more dynamic would have been nice. Flat ridging this time of year can be pretty meh.

We will see how the surface details work out.

 

The 12Z ECMWF showed dry and pleasant conditions except on this Friday, next Tuesday, and next Friday.

 

Nice days are nice days regardless of the 500mb pattern. Enjoy them if it works out.

[Jesse]

We will see how the surface details work out.

 

The 12Z ECMWF showed dry and pleasant conditions except on this Friday, next Tuesday, and next Friday.

 

Nice days are nice days regardless of the 500mb pattern. Enjoy them if it works out.

Looks like a yawner pattern. Hopefully the next Euro run will be wildly different like every other run has been lately.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like a yawner pattern. Hopefully the next Euro run will be wildly different like every other run has been lately.

Could be!

 

But not sure how a sunny 58/34 day is suddenly deemed bad if the 500mb pattern above does not look exciting to you.

 

Just enjoy the nice weather.

[TT-SEA]

50 here with heavy drizzle and fog.

 

Very exciting! Hard to focus on work.

[Jesse]

Could be!

 

But not sure how a sunny 58/34 day is suddenly deemed bad if the 500mb pattern above does not look exciting to you.

 

Just enjoy the nice weather.

Straight up telling people what to enjoy. Taking it to the next level.

[Geos]

50 here too with moderate drizzle and light fog/haze. Sun did peak out for about a minute though. 

[TT-SEA]

Straight up telling people what to enjoy. Taking it to the next level.

 

Well... you said you were looking forward to early April ridging.   Logically that means you were planning some activities that are better without being drenched and cold.   

 

It looks pretty decent if the ECMWF verifies.  

[Jesse]

18z GFS still looks pretty wet and mild. Dirty ridge paradise.