March Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

Euro looking dry through hour 72.

[MossMan]

Euro looking dry through hour 72.

Any record highs or ponies showing up yet?

[Jesse]

Any record highs or ponies showing up yet?

No.

[Phil]

The upper level pattern over the last month, which culminated in the record cold still being observed over portions of the NH.

 

So beautiful.

 

[MossMan]

No.

Well crap.

[Jesse]

The upper level pattern over the last month, which culminated in the record cold still being observed over portions of the NH.

 

So beautiful.

 

 

Looking like we revert back to the pre-shakeup pattern pretty strongly in early April.

[Phil]

The upper level pattern over the last month, which culminated in the record cold still being observed over portions of the NH.

 

So beautiful.

 

All we need to do now is maintain this regime as a background state for the next 30yrs (IE: 1945-75). That should ventilate enough OHC to make things interesting.

 

No biggie, right?

[HighlandExperience]

Yeah I don't really see that trend reversing any time soon. It is a global phenomenon too.

 

A place like Upstate New York was pretty developed even in the 19th Century. There were tens of thousands of small (50-200 acre) farms, and infrastructure which developed to support that. By the end of the 20th Century however, small farms were no longer viable, especially with the short growing seasons of inland New England which limit the viability of some of the more lucrative cash crops.

 

I would imagine a lot of these sales are estate sales on some of those remaining farms, or hobby farms retirees picked up in the 90s. If your parents own 100 acres and an old farmhouse in upstate New York you aren't going to abandon your career in say Boston, to move out there, and maintaining the property is going to be a hassle, you'll just liquidate it. But there are literally thousands of these properties on the market, looking at them some have been on the market for years, just no real demand.

 

In the west similar properties are much more valuable because the supply is low, and I think the western ethos is still alive to some extent. If you have some money, its appealing to move out to a rural area in the west and live the "western" lifestyle. We also still measure distance differently in the West. Bend to Portland is a similar distance as DC to NYC, but yet we think of Bend as being close to Portland.

 

These topics fascinate me. I apologize for straying from weather related topics...

Interesting. You should listen to the James Howard Kunstler podcast. He talks a lot about growth and development. You are spot on.

[Phil]

Looking like we revert back to the pre-shakeup pattern pretty strongly in early April.

Possibly, though the warm season background state was quite different than the cold season background state during both the LIA and the 1945-1975 period.

 

I’ll post examples in a second.

[Front Ranger]

Yeah I don't really see that trend reversing any time soon. It is a global phenomenon too. 

 

A place like Upstate New York was pretty developed even in the 19th Century. There were tens of thousands of small (50-200 acre) farms, and infrastructure which developed to support that. By the end of the 20th Century however, small farms were no longer viable, especially with the short growing seasons of inland New England which limit the viability of some of the more lucrative cash crops. 

 

I would imagine a lot of these sales are estate sales on some of those remaining farms, or hobby farms retirees picked up in the 90s. If your parents own 100 acres and an old farmhouse in upstate New York you aren't going to abandon your career in say Boston, to move out there, and maintaining the property is going to be a hassle, you'll just liquidate it. But there are literally thousands of these properties on the market, looking at them some have been on the market for years, just no real demand. 

 

In the west similar properties are much more valuable because the supply is low, and I think the western ethos is still alive to some extent. If you have some money, its appealing to move out to a rural area in the west and live the "western" lifestyle. We also still measure distance differently in the West. Bend to Portland is a similar distance as DC to NYC, but yet we think of Bend as being close to Portland. 

 

These topics fascinate me. I apologize for straying from weather related topics...

 

That's somewhat true, but even in the West demand is much lower proportionally for rural properties compared to city areas. At least in most places.

 

Here in CO, we've seen the majority of our counties lose population over the past 20 years, while the Front Range urban corridor has exploded with a huge influx of people.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Interesting. You should listen to the James Howard Kunstler podcast. He talks a lot about growth and development. You are spot on.

I will. Thanks for the suggestion.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF finished running.

 

Zonal... warm and wet all of next week.   

[Jesse]

12Z ECMWF finished running.

 

Zonal... warm and wet all of next week.

I was just going to post something similar!

 

Pretty ugly pattern.

[TT-SEA]

I was just going to post something similar!

 

Pretty ugly pattern.

 

We agree on that! 

[Deweydog]

12Z ECMWF finished running.

 

Zonal... warm and wet all of next week.

[TT-SEA]

Amazingly... the weekend is still dry on the 12Z ECMWF.   

 

Saturday is gorgeous... while the GFS has rain all day up here.   Ironically they agree on the 500mb pattern that day.  

 

On Sunday its dry and partly sunny from Mt. Vernon southward while the GFS shows rain all the way down into Oregon.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That's somewhat true, but even in the West demand is much lower proportionally for rural properties compared to city areas. At least in most places.

 

Here in CO, we've seen the majority of our counties lose population over the past 20 years, while the Front Range urban corridor has exploded with a huge influx of people.

 

I agree. Most people would not even be interested in living where I do, which is not really that far out of the way, and easy commuting distance from the state capitol, or really even Portland (Takes me about 1 hr 15m to get to the airport). When I have people over they usually grumble about the lack of cell phone service, and my only internet option is satellite. The power grid is not always reliable (It goes out for at least 6 hours, about 5 times a fall/winter on average). Life can be a bit of a hassle compared to a low maintenance centrally located house in town. In our modern world most people do not want to put up with that, and that makes sense. Still my homes current value is in the 350-375K range. I think if my property was located in rural Washington County (Easy commute to Beaverton, Hillsboro), or just outside of Oregon City, it would probably be worth considerably more.  

[Jesse]

Spring ball retirement has softened you.

[TT-SEA]

I agree. Most people would not even be interested in living where I do, which is not really that far out of the way, and easy commuting distance from the state capitol, or really even Portland (Takes me about 1 hr 15m to get to the airport). When I have people over they usually grumble about the lack of cell phone service, and my only internet option is satellite. The power grid is not always reliable (It goes out for at least 6 hours, about 5 times a fall/winter on average). Life can be a bit of a hassle compared to a low maintenance centrally located house in town. In our modern world most people do not want to put up with that, and that makes sense. Still my homes current value is in the 350-375K range. I think if my property was located in rural Washington County (Easy commute to Beaverton, Hillsboro), or just outside of Oregon City, it would probably be worth considerably more.  

 

None of those problems here.

 

We have great cell phone coverage and high speed internet... likely because we are close to the I-90 corridor.    And the power has been out for a total of 2 days (during ice storm in 2012) since the big windstorm in 2006 when they rebuilt the system.     

 

And we can be downtown Seattle in 30 minutes via freeway the entire way so it does not seem that far out despite being surrounded by mountains and feeling very remote. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

None of those problems here.

 

We have great cell phone coverage and high speed internet... likely because we are close to the I-90 corridor.    And the power has been out for a total of 2 days (during ice storm in 2012) since the big windstorm in 2006 when they rebuilt the system.     

 

And we can be downtown Seattle in 30 minutes via freeway the entire way so it does not seem that far out despite being surrounded by mountains and feeling very remote. 

 

Yes, you are in a nice outdoorsy area, but it seems much more populated than out here. They won't run high speed internet out here because there just aren't enough people to make it economically viable. What is weird also is that the state park does have a cell tower, but it only works for Verizon customers because of how state contracts are done I was told (They can only allow 1 carrier on the tower.). But even though it is only a few miles away, topography limits even Verizon service at my house. 

 

I have never considered your area to be rural. 

[TT-SEA]

Yes, you are in a nice outdoorsy area, but it seems much more populated than out here. They won't run high speed internet out here because there just aren't enough people to make it economically viable. What is weird also is that the state park does have a cell tower, but it only works for Verizon customers because of how state contracts are done I was told (They can only allow 1 carrier on the tower.). But even though it is only a few miles away, topography limits even Verizon service at my house.

 

I have never considered your area to be rural.

Feels pretty remote though. Surrounded by mountains and forests. Never feels crowded unless you are hiking Mt Si on a Saturday.

[Jesse]

Tonight could actually be on the chilly side. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF surface maps slowly coming out on WB.

 

Not as wet as I was expecting (so far) given the 500mb pattern shown.

 

Quite wet Monday... but Tuesday looks decent up here and Wednesday looks dry for most everyone and getting close to 60 in some places.

 

Obviously details will change.  Just looking at the big picture for now.

 

(update - Thursday is very wet again for everyone)  

[TT-SEA]

Google says 40 minutes, but still pretty close.

 

I have done it many times.  I know how long it takes.  

 

If there is no traffic on I-90 then I can be at Safeco Field and downtown in 30 minutes.   Its 31 miles away and the speed limit is 70 for half that distance.    

[Front Ranger]

None of those problems here.

 

We have great cell phone coverage and high speed internet... likely because we are close to the I-90 corridor.    And the power has been out for a total of 2 days (during ice storm in 2012) since the big windstorm in 2006 when they rebuilt the system.     

 

And we can be downtown Seattle in 30 minutes via freeway the entire way so it does not seem that far out despite being surrounded by mountains and feeling very remote. 

 

Yeah, you're definitely not rural...in that nice sweet spot between rural and city life.

[HighlandExperience]

[Phil]

Looking like we revert back to the pre-shakeup pattern pretty strongly in early April.

So, contrary to the cold season, the warm season circulation during the 1950-1980 actually had troughing over the Hudson Bay/Canadian Maritimes, with an anticyclone right over the pole itself. Though the center of differential action was over Eurasia.

 

 

Eurasia was much colder, as was the majority of the planet. The exception was Antarctica, which has varied out-of-phase with the rest of the planet since the Holocene thermal maximum (even more-so since the end of the MWP).

 

The 1930s/40s, on the other hand, featured a stronger resemblance to today’s climate regime. The mid-1940s, in particular, share some fascinating Pacific Ocean homogeneities. The IO/Atlantic are definitely doing something else, though.

[Deweydog]

Spring ball retirement has softened you.

I never coached in the spring.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, you're definitely not rural...in that nice sweet spot between rural and city life.

 

I suppose Snoqualmie Ridge goes against being rural. 

 

But driving around the Snoqualmie Valley from North Bend to Duvall feels very rural in places... lots of farm land and fields.

[Front Ranger]

Tonight could actually be on the chilly side. 

 

Sounds like you've already moved on to April standards. Doubt most stations even touch the 30s.

[Front Ranger]

I suppose Snoqualmie Ridge goes against being rural. 

 

But driving around the Snoqualmie Valley from North Bend to Duvall feels very rural in places... lots of farm land and fields.

 

Similar to where my parents live in southern OR. And 20 minutes from Roseburg.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Similar to where my parents live in southern OR. And 20 minutes from Roseburg.

 

Bad comparison...Much more rural...

[Front Ranger]

Bad comparison...Much more rural...

 

Not as close to a major city. But similar in that they're surrounded by wooded hills and farmland as you drive through the valley, but still a short drive from full-blown civilization.

[Geos]

I suppose Snoqualmie Ridge goes against being rural. 

 

But driving around the Snoqualmie Valley from North Bend to Duvall feels very rural in places... lots of farm land and fields.

 

I'll agree with that. 

It's a nice country drive with lots of produce stands in the summer. Can get a little busy on summer and autumn weekends though.

 

Now going north or south of Seattle/Tacoma you have to travel farther to get into the rural areas. Going north it doesn't really feel rural until you get to the edge of Arlington. Going south - past Olympia.

[TT-SEA]

  I don't know how google calculates the time, but there's no substitute for driving it.

 

 

There is traffic right now near Seattle.    It takes that into account.

 

If there is no traffic and the speed limit is either 60 or 70 mph the entire way then 32 miles takes 30 minutes.    

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not as close to a major city. But similar in that they're surrounded by wooded hills and farmland as you drive through the valley, but still a short drive from full-blown civilization.

 

True...If that is, you consider Roseburg to be civilization

[Front Ranger]

True...If that is, you consider Roseburg to be civilization

 

22,000 people can't be wrong!

[Jesse]

At least the 18z looks better for mountain snow in the long range.

[Jesse]

I never coached in the spring.

 

Probably feels that way at this point. Time flies.

[Deweydog]

Probably feels that way at this point. Time flies.

No joke. Twenty years from now it will be fifteen years since PDX broke the 108 degree plane. Seems like it was just yesterday.