March Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

Looks like a pretty wet start to April on the 00z GFS.

[Jesse]

You do go from around 300ft at I-5 to 700ft in s matter of just over 2 miles so that is true.

Yeah. Probably a good spot for orographics. You will likely do a lot better for snow, but the payback will be more rain and drizzle in the other seasons.

 

It’s sort of a head scratcher to me that the posters who seem to have the biggest problem with liquid water coming out of the sky tend to either live in or gravitate to foothill locations. Tim, Stuffradio and now you. No trolling intended, but it is honestly a little hard to understand.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like a pretty wet start to April on the 00z GFS.

 

 

Did not change much from its 12Z run.    I am interested to see if the ECMWF stays consistent.

[Jesse]

[TT-SEA]

Yeah. Probably a good spot for orographics. You will likely do a lot better for snow, but the payback will be more rain and drizzle in the other seasons.

 

It’s sort of a head scratcher to me that the posters who seem to have the biggest problem with liquid water coming out of the sky tend to either live in or gravitate to foothill locations. Tim, Stuffradio and now you. No trolling intended, but it is honestly a little hard to understand.

 

 

And why do people who love snow and cold live in a maritime climate?  

 

People end up craving the weather that is not as common in their area.   Lowlanders love snow.     I love sunny days now... and dry weather in general because I know the rain will always come in abundance.   In San Diego... I absolutely loved the rainy days. 

[Deweydog]

Yeah. Probably a good spot for orographics. You will likely do a lot better for snow, but the payback will be more rain and drizzle in the other seasons.

 

It’s sort of a head scratcher to me that the posters who seem to have the biggest problem with liquid water coming out of the sky tend to either live in or gravitate to foothill locations. Tim, Stuffradio and now you. No trolling intended, but it is honestly a little hard to understand.

I'm surrounded by..........

[Jesse]

I'm surrounded by..........

Foothills?

 

I guess I could count you among the foothill transplants. But I don’t think the rain bothers you as much.

[TT-SEA]

Precip map for Saturday on 00Z ECMWF... can't remember the last time I saw a map showing the entire West Coast from Bella Coola to Baja being dry.  

 

00Z GFS is much wetter for this day.  

 

 

 

[Deweydog]

Foothills?

 

I guess I could count you among the foothill transplants. But I don’t think the rain bothers you as much.

I don't think 350 feet or so qualifies. I don't get any more rain or snow than many spots through the Willamette or Columbia valleys.

[Jesse]

I don't think 350 feet or so qualifies. I don't get any more rain or snow than many spots through the Willamette or Columbia valleys.

500’ seems to be a good rough cutoff for noticeable differences.

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF trended towards the GFS for Sunday and beyond.   

 

Weekend is still totally dry... but back to warm front rain again on Monday.  

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF is much more zonal next week. Lots of 50 degree rain ahead it appears.

[Phil]

ECMWF is much more zonal next week. Lots of 50 degree rain ahead it appears.

You must be thrilled.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The big cutoff for a noticeable snow difference down here is really about 1000’. You get more snow certainly above 500’, but the difference isn’t that great until you get up towards 1000’.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Currently seriously considering a move to rural New England in the next few years. I love the old farmhouses and the opportunity to get a mid 19th century farmhouse on a 50-100 acre parcel for literally pennies on the dollar, is very appealing. The winter weather does not hurt either.

 

If our market stays hot in a few years I may be able to pick up something out there with cash rollover from the equity on my current home. Plus it would be like coming home for me in a sense, my mother’s side of the family was in upstate New York from about 1830-1965.

[Farmboy]

Latest thoughts from Brett Anderson.

 

Winter having a tough time letting go

 

The coldest air relative to normal in the Northern Hemisphere will likely be centered over the Canadian Prairies and northwestern Ontario over the next two weeks, leading to much below-normal temperatures and even some record cold.

 

Farther east, the combination of a nearby storm track will lead to a chilly and wetter pattern for the rest of Ontario, Quebec and the Maritimes.

 

The best weather will likely be over south-central and southwestern BC with drier and milder conditions becoming more common.

 

A breakdown.....

 

1. The next 10 days will indeed be unseasonably cold across Saskatchewan and Manitoba (potential record lows), but it will also be drier than normal. Spring flood threat still looks lower than average for this season.

 

2. May be a good time to go to Florida as the pattern down there looks fairly dry and comfortable.

 

3. Potential for a snow event over New Brunswick and perhaps southeastern Quebec around April 2.

 

4. Spring may finally take hold for good across the eastern half of the United States after April 10 as the cold upper low over Hudson Bay weakens with hints of a building ridge along the Southeast U.S. coast. A milder period may also get as far north as southern Ontario, but any farther north it may be delayed until after April 20.

 

 

Weekly European long range forecast model output interpretation. This model has been struggling as of late. The last panel (April 16-22) directly from the ECMWF looked highly suspect, as if there was a glitch. Not sure what to make of it. I put more weight into other data sources and continuity for the last map that I drew.

 

Someone should let him know that the Pacific Northwest really does exist and he should look into it...

[TT-SEA]

Currently seriously considering a move to rural New England in the next few years. I love the old farmhouses and the opportunity to get a mid 19th century farmhouse on a 50-100 acre parcel for literally pennies on the dollar, is very appealing. The winter weather does not hurt either.

 

If our market stays hot in a few years I may be able to pick up something out there with cash rollover from the equity on my current home. Plus it would be like coming home for me in a sense, my mother’s side of the family was in upstate New York from about 1830-1965.

Is this you alone... or are you bringing family?

 

The winters will be enjoyable for you... but you will find that your preference for 50-degree drizzle and gloom all summer long will be even more difficult to achieve there. And they have humidity. Spring and fall might also be annoyingly bright and sunny. Try to find a house with a dark, damp, musty cellar where you can go to hide out.

[MossMan]

[stuffradio]

Yeah. Probably a good spot for orographics. You will likely do a lot better for snow, but the payback will be more rain and drizzle in the other seasons.

 

It’s sort of a head scratcher to me that the posters who seem to have the biggest problem with liquid water coming out of the sky tend to either live in or gravitate to foothill locations. Tim, Stuffradio and now you. No trolling intended, but it is honestly a little hard to understand.

 

It's the location that messes with your head. You should move somewhere like that and you might become like us too! One of us, one of us.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Is this you alone... or are you bringing family?

 

The winters will be enjoyable for you... but you will find that your preference for 50-degree drizzle and gloom all summer long will be even more difficult to achieve there. And they have humidity. Spring and fall might also be annoyingly bright and sunny. Try to find a house with a dark, damp, musty cellar where you can go to hide out.

 

They'll stay here and maintain my Oregon Estate...No, I wouldn't move if they didn't want to...

 

Albany NY averages 82/61 in July.  Even with more humidity I think I could handle that. July is also their wettest month on average...I enjoy summer rain and thunderstorms. Something I actually miss about Oklahoma.

 

The places I have been looking at are a bit further north than Albany and around 1000-1500' so they would probably be cooler and wetter. There are a lot of great places bordering Adirondack State Park that are shockingly affordable. If I lived on the east side of the park I could probably commute to Burlington. I have been looking at the Albany area though as there are probably more employment opportunities in that area. You can get a 20 acre parcel with a decent old farm house for 100-150K within 30 minutes of Albany. 

[Front Ranger]

I'm no expert, but I'd imagine those old 19th century farmhouses would require a lot of upkeep. The cheap ones probably need a good deal of modernizing to be comfortable.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm no expert, but I'd imagine those old 19th century farmhouses would require a lot of upkeep. The cheap ones probably need a good deal of modernizing to be comfortable.

 

In many cases you are right. But I'm not huge on modern amenities... This would be a dream home though. A little to far from anywhere to be a viable goal...

 

https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/29937024_zpid/1-_beds/0-300000_price/0-1179_mp/1306800-_lot/globalrelevanceex_sort/44.854895,-72.675934,43.412031,-74.653473_rect/8_zm/

[Jesse]

48 and kloudy here.

[Jesse]

It's the location that messes with your head. You should move somewhere like that and you might become like us too! One of us, one of us.

 

The western foothills of the Cascades would be interesting. I think there is a lot I would like about it. If I were to move to any local microclimate it would probably be somewhere with a little more of a continental flavor though. There are some really nice areas in the upper Hood River valley and western Klickitat county.

[Front Ranger]

In many cases you are right. But I'm not huge on modern amenities... This would be a dream home though. A little to far from anywhere to be a viable goal...

 

https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/29937024_zpid/1-_beds/0-300000_price/0-1179_mp/1306800-_lot/globalrelevanceex_sort/44.854895,-72.675934,43.412031,-74.653473_rect/8_zm/

 

Yeah, that looks pretty nice. Not a fan of the home's interior at all, but beautiful setting (on 100 acres!), and right down the road from a lake.

[Jesse]

Looking at my morning sno-tel roundup it appears that at very least the mountains didn’t lose any appreciable snow with the warmer rain the last few days.

 

It’s unfortunate that there are no real snow producers on the horizon, though.

[Jesse]

12z GFS brings back the idea of a chilly Easter.

 

Good thing the models have this pattern totally nailed down!

[TT-SEA]

12z GFS brings back the idea of a chilly Easter.

 

Good thing the models have this pattern totally nailed down!

 

Models are a complete mess right now.   I going to assume the worst.

 

And the ECMWF is stuck at 24 hours so it might be awhile until we see if it caves to the GFS which seems more and more likely as the GFS is digging in its heels.

[MossMan]

I could really go for a nice thermal trough lasting a few days with some record highs.

[Jesse]

I could really go for a nice thermal trough lasting a few days with some record highs.

Matt wants a pony.

[Jesse]

 

Lots of very wet ensemble members in the mid to long range.

[Phil]

Currently seriously considering a move to rural New England in the next few years. I love the old farmhouses and the opportunity to get a mid 19th century farmhouse on a 50-100 acre parcel for literally pennies on the dollar, is very appealing. The winter weather does not hurt either.

 

If our market stays hot in a few years I may be able to pick up something out there with cash rollover from the equity on my current home. Plus it would be like coming home for me in a sense, my mother’s side of the family was in upstate New York from about 1830-1965.

Sounds awesome. If you love cold and snow, then you certainly won’t be disappointed, lol.

[HighlandExperience]

[Jesse]

[Jesse]

Euro looks dry through hour 24.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow I’m amazed at how cheap that is. Is that even possible out west?

 

I don't think so. I was shocked how cheap things are in rural areas of the east. The major metros are very pricey out there too, so I just assumed their rural areas would be too. 

 

But I also think a lot of it is economics, and supply. There is not a lot of economic opportunity in rural New England or the rust belt anymore. You can't make a living on a 100 acre farm, and a lot of the towns and counties of upstate New York for example have lost a tremendous amount of population over the past 50 years. This creates excess supply as people move out, but not a lot of people are interested in moving in.

 

There is also a lot more private land ownership out there. The zoning on the west coast, but also vast tracts of public land constrict inventory. Places in the east developed and peaked 50-100 years ago, and now there is high supply as people move out and also just an incredible amount of land that was developed, as most of it was in private hands. There is only so much development that can occur for instance in Deshutes County (Bend/Redmond) because 70% of the land is public, and will never be open to private development. That is part of what we like about the West, but part of what makes living here expensive. That and people are moving here...I looked at Little River, NY. In 1920 they had over 13,000 people, now they have about 4,900. 

[Front Ranger]

I don't think so. I was shocked how cheap things are in rural areas of the east. The major metros are very pricey out there too, so I just assumed their rural areas would be too. 

 

But I also think a lot of it is economics, and supply. There is not a lot of economic opportunity in rural New England or the rust belt anymore. You can't make a living on a 100 acre farm, and a lot of the towns and counties of upstate New York for example have lost a tremendous amount of population over the past 50 years. This creates excess supply as people move out, but not a lot of people are interested in moving in.

 

There is also a lot more private land ownership out there. The zoning on the west coast, but also vast tracts of public land constrict inventory. Places in the east developed and peaked 50-100 years ago, and now there is high supply as people move out and also just an incredible amount of land that was developed, as most of it was in private hands. There is only so much development that can occur for instance in Deshutes County (Bend/Redmond) because 70% of the land is public, and will never be open to private development. That is part of what we like about the West, but part of what makes living here expensive. That and people are moving here...I looked at Little River, NY. In 1920 they had over 13,000 people, now they have about 4,900. 

 

Exactly. This is a trend nationally with real estate, as over the past couple decades, more and more people have moved from rural areas to urban/suburban. At some point it might reverse, but the two factors going against that are lack of economic opportunity as you pointed out, and the dearth of modern amenities/tech that most people consider essential to their daily lives now.

[stuffradio]

I don't think so. I was shocked how cheap things are in rural areas of the east. The major metros are very pricey out there too, so I just assumed their rural areas would be too. 

 

But I also think a lot of it is economics, and supply. There is not a lot of economic opportunity in rural New England or the rust belt anymore. You can't make a living on a 100 acre farm, and a lot of the towns and counties of upstate New York for example have lost a tremendous amount of population over the past 50 years. This creates excess supply as people move out, but not a lot of people are interested in moving in.

 

There is also a lot more private land ownership out there. The zoning on the west coast, but also vast tracts of public land constrict inventory. Places in the east developed and peaked 50-100 years ago, and now there is high supply as people move out and also just an incredible amount of land that was developed, as most of it was in private hands. There is only so much development that can occur for instance in Deshutes County (Bend/Redmond) because 70% of the land is public, and will never be open to private development. That is part of what we like about the West, but part of what makes living here expensive. That and people are moving here...I looked at Little River, NY. In 1920 they had over 13,000 people, now they have about 4,900. 

How can't you make a living with 100 acres?

 

Just today I saw a property in Prince George for $320000 CAD. It has a beautiful log house and 18 acres.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Exactly. This is a trend nationally with real estate, as over the past couple decades, more and more people have moved from rural areas to urban/suburban. At some point it might reverse, but the two factors going against that are lack of economic opportunity as you pointed out, and the dearth of modern amenities/tech that most people consider essential to their daily lives now.

 

Yeah I don't really see that trend reversing any time soon. It is a global phenomenon too. 

 

A place like Upstate New York was pretty developed even in the 19th Century. There were tens of thousands of small (50-200 acre) farms, and infrastructure which developed to support that. By the end of the 20th Century however, small farms were no longer viable, especially with the short growing seasons of inland New England which limit the viability of some of the more lucrative cash crops. 

 

I would imagine a lot of these sales are estate sales on some of those remaining farms, or hobby farms retirees picked up in the 90s. If your parents own 100 acres and an old farmhouse in upstate New York you aren't going to abandon your career in say Boston, to move out there, and maintaining the property is going to be a hassle, you'll just liquidate it. But there are literally thousands of these properties on the market, looking at them some have been on the market for years, just no real demand. 

 

In the west similar properties are much more valuable because the supply is low, and I think the western ethos is still alive to some extent. If you have some money, its appealing to move out to a rural area in the west and live the "western" lifestyle. We also still measure distance differently in the West. Bend to Portland is a similar distance as DC to NYC, but yet we think of Bend as being close to Portland. 

 

These topics fascinate me. I apologize for straying from weather related topics...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

How can't you make a living with 100 acres?

 

Just today I saw a property in Prince George for $320000 CAD. It has a beautiful log house and 18 acres.

 

They have pretty short growing seasons in places like Upstate New York. You can't make a living on 100 acres of corn or wheat. 

 

Willamette Valley farms can do alright on smaller acreage if they have a niche like berries, nursery stock, or can turn it into a vineyard. And a lot of times they will run farm stands, but the more successful farm stands also purchase from smaller growers. Most of the successful farmers in the Willamette Valley even are more corporate now and at minimum own or least several hundred acres. And again the Willamette Valley is incredibly productive and has a fairly long growing season. 

 

Even in the valley though smaller dairies have pretty much disappeared in the past 20-30 years. When I was a kid there were 8 dairies within a 3 mile radius of our house. They are all gone now. 

 

A good book to read about the plight of small farms in America is Fields Without Dreams by Victor Davis Hanson (He would later become a Fox News contributor, Hoover Institute Fellow, and prominent NeoCon), but in the 1990s when he wrote the book he was more of a rural Democrat (Something that also does not really exist anymore.). He discusses the agrarian ideal which was intertwined in the founding of the United States and how that idea of a nation of yeoman farmers was ending. If anything what he describes in his book (He had inherited a family farm in California's Central Valley, which essentially could no longer be run profitably.), has accelerated.