March Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

I was waving my hand around in front of my face this morning. Well, at least I think it was my hand I was seeing. Need some stats to back it up.

I don't think it's unreasonable to suggest stats/research has some value in this discussion.

[TT-SEA]

Hope the 12Z ECMWF has the weekend correct now... its only a few days away.    12Z ECMWF has sunshine and mid to upper 50s for Easter.    12Z GFS has widespread rain and wind and highs in the 40s.

 

Big differences between the GFS and ECMWF at just day 6:

 

ECMWF:

 

 

GFS:

 

[TT-SEA]

Differences seem to be irrelevant to the long range though as the ECMWF also has a zonal look by day 8.

 

 

I am think significant wet is much more likely than significant cold right now for early April.  

[Jesse]

Hope the 12Z ECMWF has the weekend correct now... its only a few days away. 12Z ECMWF has sunshine and mid to upper 50s for Easter. 12Z GFS has widespread rain and wind and highs in the 40s.

 

Big differences between the GFS and ECMWF at just day 6:

 

ECMWF:

 

GFS:

 

 

Looks like the same pattern. The GFS is just faster.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like the same pattern. The GFS is just faster.

That is what I was thinking. Hard to argue against the position that the GFS is leading the way. As much it goes against my belief in the ECMWF.

[TT-SEA]

Hope the ECMWF is wrong in the long range... that is some seriously warm, heavy rain by day 9 and 10.  

[Jesse]

Hope the ECMWF is wrong in the long range... that is some seriously warm, heavy rain by day 9 and 10.

It's probably off. That would be a really weird pattern in any April, not to mention a Niña April.

[MossMan]

Heavy drizzle all day so far!

[Jesse]

Heavy drizzle all day so far!

 

Good thing you are moving closer to the foothills soon. Should be even easier to get that monkey off your back!

[ShawniganLake]

Hope the ECMWF is wrong in the long range... that is some seriously warm, heavy rain by day 9 and 10.

Head south. Looks mostly dry in Oregon

[Deweydog]

Cloudy here.

[Jesse]

[TT-SEA]

Head south. Looks mostly dry in Oregon

 

Can we move our mountains south as well for a few days to protect their snow pack?   

[Front Ranger]

After doing a little research, it appears that I was mostly correct about global deforestation trends - tropical areas are trending down while sub-tropical are mostly trending up or steady, at least in recent decades.

 

 

This does not mean deforestation isn't a huge problem today - it definitely is in places like Brazil.

 

As far as overfishing and overhunting, I probably underestimated the problem now compared to the 1950s - partly just because many species have already continued down the path to extinction since then, and many are still endangered today. It's difficult to say if animals are more overhunted/fished today than 60+ years ago, but there's no doubt that we're further along the extinction path, unfortunately. 

 

 

Ok, no more off-topic posts for me today.  

[Front Ranger]

It's probably off. That would be a really weird pattern in any April, not to mention a Niña April.

 

Wasn't there something similar last April, though?

[Phil]

After doing a little research, it appears that I was mostly correct about global deforestation trends - tropical areas are trending down while sub-tropical are mostly trending up or steady, at least in recent decades.

 

0325fao_trends400.jpg

 

This does not mean deforestation isn't a huge problem today - it definitely is in places like Brazil.

 

As far as overfishing and overhunting, I probably underestimated the problem now compared to the 1950s - partly just because many species have already continued down the path to extinction since then, and many are still endangered today. It's difficult to say if animals are more overhunted/fished today than 60+ years ago, but there's no doubt that we're further along the extinction path, unfortunately.

 

Untitled88.png

 

Ok, no more off-topic posts for me today.

You do realize that South America and Africa represent roughly half of the world’s landmass, yes? And that the steep decline in forest coverage on those two continents alone mathematically outweighs any increases elsewhere, correct?

 

So my assertion is accurate. Deforestation is a worsening problem on the aggregate, largely thanks to logging in the developing world, despite improvements being made in developed nations. #truthbomb

[Phil]

Correct me if I’m wrong, but weren’t we drawing comparisons to the 1950s? In that context, I don’t see the purpose of posting graphs beginning in the 1970s/1990s.

[TT-SEA]

So what is the verdict?   Are we rolling back everything to the 1950s or not?   Need a decision soon people!  

[Frontal Snowsquall]

12z EURO shows a Pineapple Express pattern setting up at day 10.

 

[Phil]

So..Greenland vortex cancel? This looks bizarre to me, but I’m sure it’s happened before.

 

[Jesse]

EPS doesn’t seem to support the Pineapple Express set up for the 8-10 day period. Looks troughier in general.

[Phil]

EPS doesn’t seem to support the Pineapple Express set up for the 8-10 day period. Looks troughier in general.

The week 2 EPS looks closer to what I would expect with a boreal spring equatorward -AAM backcycle/-WPO.

 

Ridge nearby, cold Canada/NATL. Classic intraseasonal response, unlike the weird GFS solution.

 

[Phil]

Eventually there will be enough -AAM transported underneath 30N, in tandem with seasonal preconditioning, to give that EPAC high a kick.

 

I’m still thinking mid-April.

[Front Ranger]

Correct me if I’m wrong, but weren’t we drawing comparisons to the 1950s? In that context, I don’t see the purpose of posting graphs beginning in the 1970s/1990s.

 

Feel free to find those graphs. I couldn't. At least I did some research and admitted where I was off, rather than just resting on my opinion. 

 

#researchbomb

[Front Ranger]

You do realize that South America and Africa represent roughly half of the world’s landmass, yes? And that the steep decline in forest coverage on those two continents alone mathematically outweighs any increases elsewhere, correct?

 

So my assertion is accurate. Deforestation is a worsening problem on the aggregate, largely thanks to logging in the developing world, despite improvements being made in developed nations. #truthbomb

 

This is not correct. 32%.

 

#factbomb

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We find the silliest things to argue about.

[Phil]

This is not correct. 32%.

 

#factbomb

Antarctica and Greenland don’t count.

 

#logicbomb

[Front Ranger]

Antarctica and Greenland don’t count.

 

#logicbomb

 

By that logic, large parts of Africa shouldn't count either since, you know, the Sahara isn't forested.

 

It was a factually incorrect statement that you are now trying to weasel out of. If I tried something like this, Jesse would have a seizure. 

[Jesse]

By that logic, large parts of Africa shouldn't count either since, you know, the Sahara isn't forested.

 

It was a factually incorrect statement that you are now trying to weasel out of. If I tried something like this, Jesse would have a seizure.

You are the one trying to weasel out of things right now with silly semantics. Nothing new.

 

Maybe you guys could take it to PM or a different thread going forward, though.

[Jesse]

The week 2 EPS looks closer to what I would expect with a boreal spring equatorward -AAM backcycle/-WPO.

 

Ridge nearby, cold Canada/NATL. Classic intraseasonal response, unlike the weird GFS solution.

 

Looks like it could be a pattern with a lot of cool, dry northerly flow for us.

[Jesse]

Today has been a big disappointment in the temp and precip department.

[Phil]

Looks like it could be a pattern with a lot of cool, dry northerly flow for us.

Could very well be. You probably have a better handle on that than I do.

[Front Ranger]

You are the one trying to weasel out of things right now with silly semantics. Nothing new.

 

Maybe you guys could take it to PM or a different thread going forward, though.

 

This is absolutely, patently false. You're falling into the same old trap of judging posts by your personal bias towards the poster, rather than the content. I actually researched and shared nuanced info, and then you respond like this. Weak.

 

Please stop with these lame ad hominem accusations you always fall back on. I did not use any sort of semantics argument, so don't say I did. It's that simple.

[Deweydog]

Today has been a big disappointment in the temp and precip department.

Still have a good shot at 50. Don't give up!

[Jesse]

This is absolutely, patently false. There were no semantics. You're falling into the same old trap of judging posts by your personal bias towards the poster, rather than the content. I actually researched and shared nuanced info, and then you respond like this. Weak.

 

Please stop with these lame ad hominem accusations you always fall back on.

Don’t take things so serious

[Front Ranger]

Don’t take things so serious

 

You weren't joking.

 

There's no excuse for your ad hominem BS. Just don't join the conversation if that's all you have to offer.

[Deweydog]

You weren't joking.

It's only serious when he turns on the PM faucet.

[Front Ranger]

It's only serious when he turns on the PM faucet.

 

Last time he PM(S)'d me, I shared the fact that he had done so and it pissed him off further. So I think he's sworn off PMing me for awhile.

 

[Jesse]

It's only serious when he turns on the PM faucet.

Trying to avoid polluting the main forum by handling issues with people personally is truly the worst thing one could ever do.

[Deweydog]

Trying to avoid polluting the main forum by handling issues with people personally is truly the worst thing one could ever do.

Going poop and not washing your hands is worse.