March Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[ShawniganLake]

Didn’t rain at all here today. Rain shadow

[MossMan]

Didn’t rain at all here today. Rain shadow

We were not so fortunate down here.

[Deweydog]

00z!

[TT-SEA]

We were not so fortunate down here.

 

I did not see any big wildfires today... so we really were lucky.    Rumor on here was that if it was dry today then smoke would have been pouring into the region.    Best not to take any chances.    

[MossMan]

I did not see any big wildfires today... so we really were lucky. Rumor on here was that if it was dry today then smoke would have been pouring into the region. Best not to take any chances.

Yeah we got lucky...this time!

[snow_wizard]

So far my temperature range for the day is 45 - 39.  Another decently cool day.

[MossMan]

Too bad this didn’t happen in January. Oh well, next winter will be epic!

[TT-SEA]

GOA ridge might be taking a break?

 

[BLI snowman]

GOA ridge might be taking a break?

 

 

 

IceAgeNow

[Deweydog]

Uh oh...

[TT-SEA]

A cold spell in early April is looking less likely.   The block looks like it will drift too far north before it can deliver.

 

The 00Z ECMWF shifted everything north again for next week...

 

 

[ShawniganLake]

Gfs is out to lunch.

[TT-SEA]

Woke up to the sound of the wind roaring.   The benefit to stronger flow aloft is a wider rain shadow at times.   So wide that even I can be protected by the Olympics way out there.   

 

[MossMan]

Woke up to the sound of the wind roaring. The benefit to stronger flow aloft is a wider rain shadow at times. So wide that even I can be protected by the Olympics way out there.

 

Windy and dry here as well. Got to love the rain shadow during times like this!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty amazing I still have some snow left. 36 and cloudy

[TT-SEA]

Pretty amazing I still have some snow left. 36 and cloudy

46 and windy and dry here

[TT-SEA]

Snoqualmie Summit is closed due to heavy rain.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

46 and windy and dry here

Amazing how warm it’s been up there

[MossMan]

No shadow for me now.

[stuffradio]

I've received more than 2-3" of rain in the past 24-40 hours. I'm basically at average now for the month of March even with all the very nice days mixed in.

[Tyler Mode]

Quite a bit more snow in Glacier NP this year vs 2016. 

 

I'll have to pull up Mt. Rainier images too.

[Front Ranger]

Woke up to the sound of the wind roaring.   The benefit to stronger flow aloft is a wider rain shadow at times.   So wide that even I can be protected by the Olympics way out there.   

 

 

Yeah, we've entered the spring rain shadow season, when the difference is probably most notable for the Seattle area.

 

Even just comparing SEA to long term stations near downtown, you can see the difference. Less rainfall Mar-May, and fewer rainy days.

[Front Ranger]

I've received more than 2-3" of rain in the past 24-40 hours. I'm basically at average now for the month of March even with all the very nice days mixed in.

 

Most areas in the western lowlands are still below normal.

 

[TT-SEA]

No shadow for me now.

 

Breaking down for me as well.  

 

But northerly flow is going to help push this out of here later today.    Here is the HRRR for 9 a.m.

 

 

 

And then at 5 p.m.

 

[stuffradio]

Most areas in the western lowlands are still below normal.

 

MonthPNormWRCC-NW.png

Yeah, but I'm just exceptional.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

April is gonna be wet.

[ShawniganLake]

March precip is at 40% of normal here.

[Front Ranger]

April is gonna be wet.

 

Nina climo would suggest equal chances.

 

 

Only 9 of these 20 years were wetter than normal at PDX, FWIW.

[TT-SEA]

Nina climo would suggest equal chances.

 

cd2603_300b_503_1800_f9b6_e12c_2256_91c3.85.10.11.44.prcp.png

 

Only 9 of these 20 years were wetter than normal at PDX, FWIW.

I think he is referring specifically to the zonal pattern being hinted at in the models... not necessarily climo.

[Front Ranger]

If you look at Nina years where Feb/Mar were drier than normal, you have: 1955, 1956, 1965, 1985, 2001, 2006, 2008, and 2009.

 

This yields a drier than normal signal for April.

 

[Front Ranger]

I think he is referring specifically to the zonal pattern being hinted at in the models... not necessarily climo.

 

I know. Just adding broader perspective. 

[TT-SEA]

I know. Just adding broader perspective. 

 

All good information.

[TT-SEA]

GFS is starting to look a more amplified with the pattern next week... trending towards the ECMWF.

 

[ShawniganLake]

Weatherbells leading analogues for the summer are 1951 and 2006.

[Jesse]

Weatherbells leading analogues for the summer are 1951 and 2006.

Another scourcher on the way.

[TT-SEA]

Weatherbells leading analogues for the summer are 1951 and 2006.

 

I would love that.  

[seattleweatherguy]

Hope we can avoid another 2009 summer

[TT-SEA]

Hope we can avoid another 2009 summer

 

A 2009 type summer seems very unlikely.   

[seattleweatherguy]

How was the summer of 1951 and 2006? Just warmer than normal and real dry?

[stuffradio]

Hope we can avoid another 2009 summer

I think I remember in 2009 we reached 86-90F for a few days in May, and had a few heatwaves.

 

Edit: wait, maybe that was 2008 not 2009.