May Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

How troughy did I say it would be?

 

IIRC, I went out of my way to highlight the fact it wouldn’t be anything extraordinary or anomalous. Just your typical/modest stretch of warm season troughing as the MJO crosses the Indo-Pacific domain following a cycle of poleward AAM propagation.

 

This isn’t a background state. Ridging will return in late June, and last through at least the middle of July. Then tropical forcing will eventually return to the EHEM in the third or fourth week of July. Rinse, repeat.

I don’t consider a period that will probably end up warm on the whole and drier than average to be “troughing”. Maybe technically at times when a transitory dip in the 500mb pattern sits over us, like today.

 

If expecting some precipitation and more than a couple days of below average temps during a 2-3 week period of troughing is expecting too much, then guilty as charged.

[Deweydog]

I don't remember any specific talk of this pattern change being the cure for debilitating anxiety.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

What's a good radar app now that Storm has been replaced by a shi++y new app from the Weather Channel?

 

Windstream and weather stations are now gone, among many other great features Storm had.

[Jesse]

I don't remember any specific talk of this pattern change being the cure for debilitating anxiety.

You are so nasty lately!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

You are so nasty lately!

Lately?

[Deweydog]

You are so nasty lately!

Just like this troughing!

[Jesse]

Lately?

Good point.

[Jesse]

Nice looking band of showers moving in.

[TT-SEA]

The first half of June hasn’t happened yet. Right now models are looking warm and mostly dry.

 

Fair enough.

[Geos]

Showers incoming up this way too. Cool - only 62 at 3:30.

 

[Jesse]

Fair enough.

Wrath!!

[TT-SEA]

Wrath!!

 

 

You were mocking him.  

[Jesse]

You were mocking him.

That’s one of the seven deadly sins you know. Harsh allegation.

[Deweydog]

What's in the box?????

[El Nina]

Maybe the averages are wrong.

[Jesse]

Maybe the averages are wrong.

They are going up.

[Deweydog]

Maybe the averages are wrong.

Give it a couple years.

[Jesse]

Give it a couple years.

Losing the 80s and gaining the 2010s is going to be earth shattering.

[El Nina]

Give it a couple years.

They are going up.

We only have like 130ish years of data, and in geological terms that's nothing basically. So maybe our idea of average is totally wrong. I'm just trying to wrap my head around how freaking warm it has been.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

The very occasional drop falling in Springfield but rarely. Almost a completely dry May here except for a quick .2 earlier this month.

[Deweydog]

Losing the 80s and gaining the 2010s is going to be earth shattering.

They're gonna have to order a lot more dashes!

[TT-SEA]

We only have like 130ish years of data, and in geological terms that's nothing basically. So maybe our idea of average is totally wrong. I'm just trying to wrap my head around how freaking warm it has been.

 

Its been WAAAAAAAAAY warmer in the past.  

 

This area used to be tropical when the dinosaurs roamed the Earth.   

[TT-SEA]

Pleasant afternoon.

 

Had some random sprinkles earlier... partly sunny now with the rain way to the south on the radar.  

[Jesse]

They're gonna have to order a lot more dashes!

They didn’t need many after the first few years of the 2010s!

[Phil]

I don’t consider a period that will probably end up warm on the whole and drier than average to be “troughing”. Maybe technically at times when a transitory dip in the 500mb pattern sits over us, like today.

 

If expecting some precipitation and more than a couple days of below average temps during a 2-3 week period of troughing is expecting too much, then guilty as charged.

I’m sure it will be cooler than that. I bet the majority of days will be cooler than average across the region over the next 3 weeks. Whether SEA/PDX end up cooler than average overall might depend on smaller scale factors.

[El Nina]

Its been WAAAAAAAAAY warmer in the past.

 

This area used to be tropical when the dinosaurs roamed the Earth.

It's also been WAAAAAAAAAY cooler in the past, too.

[TT-SEA]

It's also been WAAAAAAAAAY cooler in the past, too.

Yes... it has.

[Phil]

Its been WAAAAAAAAAY warmer in the past.

 

This area used to be tropical when the dinosaurs roamed the Earth.

Ironically, today’s temperatures are right around the Holocene average, despite all the bellyaching. The LIA was the coldest period (globally) since the 8200kr cooling event, and across northwest North America specifically, it was the coldest period since the end of the last ice age.

 

The MWP (similar to today) is often used as a neoglacial benchmark, but in truth it was still cooler than the majority of the period from to 8000-2000yrs ago.

[Phil]

I’m sure it will be cooler than that. I bet the majority of days will be cooler than average across the region over the next 3 weeks. Whether SEA/PDX end up cooler than average overall might depend on smaller scale factors.

And the models don’t look warm/dry at all.

 

Jesse is just having a psychotic break.

[Deweydog]

They didn’t need many after the first few years of the 2010s!

The first few years of the 2020's are coming right up!

 

#philhasNOTmincedwordsaboutthatninagasm

[High Desert Mat!]

Look at Redmonds forecast for the next ten days. If that doesn't say ridgy and dry I don't know what does. Quite a few days with temps almost 20 degrees north of average. Jesse is right.

[Phil]

#WarmAndRidgy

 

GEFS D1-5/D5-10.

 

 

EPS D1-5/D5-10/D10-15. Warm-up days 5-8, sandwiched in between rounds of troughing:

 

[Phil]

Whatever, you guys can believe whatever the hell you want to believe. I’m not wasting any more time trying to convey the obvious.

[Geos]

Pleasant afternoon.

 

Had some random sprinkles earlier... partly sunny now with the rain way to the south on the radar.  

 

Clouds here thinned out so the sun can be seen, but just not very bright at the moment. 

 

Looks to be a fair share of troughs are going to impact the region in the next 2 weeks. 

[El Nina]

#WarmAndRidgy

 

GEFS D1-5/D5-10.

 

 

EPS D1-5/D5-10/D10-15. Warm-up days 5-8, sandwiched in between rounds of troughing:

 

Redmond has above normal heights in all those except D1-5. But here it looks a bit on the troughy side.

[TT-SEA]

Look at Redmonds forecast for the next ten days. If that doesn't say ridgy and dry I don't know what does. Quite a few days with temps almost 20 degrees north of average. Jesse is right.

 

No one is right about the first half of June at this point... it has not happened yet.

 

Phil said troughing would return in a big way during the last week of May and he was spot on.... no way to argue that when looking at the 500mb map right now.

 

[Jesse]

And the models don’t look warm/dry at all.

 

Jesse is just having a psychotic break.

You are being unnecessarily rude. I would like to think you could disagree with my interpretation of the models the next few weeks without making a jab at my mental health. I expect that stuff from Matt but not you.

[TT-SEA]

Now the 18Z GFS was a ridgy and warm run... way more than the 12Z run.  

[Jesse]

Now the 18Z GFS was a ridgy and warm run... way more than the 12Z run.

Knock me over with a feather.

[Phil]

OT, I just recorded a truly insane downpour, one of the craziest I’ve ever seen.

 

Dumped 2.25” of rain in 15mins, about 1.8” in 10mins. The 5min rainfall rate approached a foot/hr, and the absolute maximum was almost 20”/hr.