PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[Doinko]

Arctic front snow

[WeatherGeek2022]

5 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Day 7

locked and loaded.

[Requiem]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Arctic front snow

Fiiiiiinalllllly something 

[SouthHillFrosty]

5 minutes ago, RCola said:

Need that low further south at hour 150 on the Euro for Seattle to get something meaningful, but it wouldn't require too much. Will be interesting to track that.

 

The 500mb pattern is gorgeous on the Euro. Solid block.

It comes in right at the Columbia river base…..just a little warm to start that’s all! Good landing spot

[Doinko]

This run is cold. Temps crash from the mid 30s in the morning to this


Sub 510dm thickness south of Seattle

[TT-SEA]

Wow... 4 p.m. temps next Thursday per the ECMWF.     This would be insane for late December.  

[Doinko]

These are daytime temps...

[Cascadia_Wx]

FroYo caught the stomach bug  

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Reminds me of what the models were showing this past December. Perhaps we're facing another model showdown (a Dec 20, 2022 repeat in the cards?):

 

 

[Doinko]

850s bottom out at -16c for Seattle and -13c for Portland. Wow

[BLI snowman]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Wow... 4 p.m. temps next Thursday per the ECMWF.     This would be insane for late December.  

Very gorge-y, in contrast to recent events. 19 at PDX and 30 at BLI.

[Doinko]

Day 9. Trough doesn't float offshore nearly as much. Way better

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, Doinko said:

850s bottom out at -16c for Seattle and -13c for Portland. Wow

Things could trend warmer. Y’all aren’t as smart as me.

-Deweydog 

[Doinko]

[VancouverIslandSouth]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Very gorge-y, in contrast to recent events. 19 at PDX and 30 at BLI.

Seems a bit odd given the extreme cold in the BC interior. That would be kicking up some serious Fraser outflow.

[Doinko]

Daytime temps still in the mid 20s at PDX

[snow_wizard]

Much snowier ECMWF for King County.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

Seems a bit odd given the extreme cold in the BC interior. That would be kicking up some serious Fraser outflow.

I agree.

[snow_wizard]

Just had a thought.  Snow cover may explain some the colder readings for Seattle and PDX area compared to BLI.

[snow_wizard]

GFS -17 and ECMWF -16.  Remarkable agreement.

[BLI snowman]

5 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

Seems a bit odd given the extreme cold in the BC interior. That would be kicking up some serious Fraser outflow.

Lack of snowcover up there near the border maybe plays a part, and the coldest air has a pretty east-west trajectory on this run as it advects in.

[Doinko]

The high/low temp chart for PDX will probably be ridiculous when it comes out. Highs in the low 20s for a few days it looks like.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Coldest Feb 25th ever?

[RCola]

21 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

It comes in right at the Columbia river base…..just a little warm to start that’s all! Good landing spot

You're right, I skipped a frame! Track looks ideal, just need things to cool a bit more at 850hPa. It's at -5C at the time precip begins around hour 144 and -8C by the time the trough is making its exit.

 

The 850 temps are pretty uniform from Vancouver, BC to Olympia as the trough enters the picture. If we get a run with slightly cooler 850s tomorrow, I expect you'll see a pretty different looking snow map.  It's very close.

[WeatherGeek2022]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Coldest Feb 25th ever?

are you sure about being sure king euro?

[Christensen87]

5 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Coldest Feb 25th ever?

These are surface temps? 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just now, Christensen87 said:

These are surface temps? 

Yea they are

[ShawniganLake]

5 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Lack of snowcover up there near the border maybe plays a part, and the coldest air has a pretty east-west trajectory on this run as it advects in.

Yea. The Fraser outflow just isn’t as good at delivering low level cold with that trajectory. 

[Christensen87]

4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Yea they are

I’ll be in Eburg for a brewfest that Saturday. I’ll need to drink all the beer to keep me warm, sheesh! 

[JW8]

It was 65° at Seatac today...27 years ago. 

[bainbridgekid]

18 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Coldest Feb 25th ever?

I’ll be in Whistler next weekend and already warned my friends it may be below zero. 

[snow_wizard]

Just your typical 23/15 day for SEA on this run.

[snow_wizard]

Might have a shot at the coldest post Feb 20 max since the 19th century with this.  I think the coldest for SEA is 29 from 1955.  I'll have to check to make sure.

[snow_wizard]

This just seems too easy.  No model roller coaster, very little weenieism on the forum, etc.

[snow_wizard]

Fantastic EPS run again.  Even a tad colder than the 12z at hour 180.

[Cold Snap]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Fantastic EPS run again.

Looking slightly better than 12z so far.

[snow_wizard]

A mean of -13 over SEA.  Absolutely amazing.

[Doinko]

What do the high/low temps look like for PDX on the Euro?

[snow_wizard]

Looks like surface temps are 3 or 4 degrees lower on this run vs 12z EPS.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Doinko said:

What do the high/low temps look like for PDX on the Euro?

24/15 and 24/12 are the two coldest.