PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[snow_wizard]

Just noticed the ECMWF has dropped the mins colder for Friday and Saturday than earlier runs had indicated as well.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

25 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

With this pattern it's theoretically possible that could happen.

It is also theoretically possible that a meteor could install a new skylight in my roof tonight.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I still have a little here in the shade.  Nice numbers you put up today.

My month to date average is falling like a rock and we aren't even to the good stuff yet!

-8 departure at Salem today. Down to about -2.3 on the month. 

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

-8 departure at Salem today. Down to about -2.3 on the month. 

We're about normal month to date up here, but it's dropping fast.

[snow_wizard]

On KOMO News they already said the cold is pretty much a slam dunk for next week.  Very rare you hear them say that this far out.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like I have a great shot at three months averaging below 40 this season... N,D, and F.  The last (and only) time I had three in a season was 2016-17.  A really interesting aside is the fact I only had one month average below 40 the first five winters I lived here.  As I've said many times....the winters have gotten better since the early part of the century.

[jakerepp]

Y'all, I'm embarrassed to admit, I was chilly today when it was 54 and sunny.

I've already adapted to the winters here. 

 

Also, we had a sweet t-storm roll through last night.

[snow_wizard]

13 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Y'all, I'm embarrassed to admit, I was chilly today when it was 54 and sunny.

I've already adapted to the winters here. 

 

Also, we had a sweet t-storm roll through last night.

A T-Storm must be very rare there in the winter.

[MossMan]

24 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

On KOMO News they already said the cold is pretty much a slam dunk for next week.  Very rare you hear them say that this far out.

I heard Rich Marriott caught wind of that, he ran over and took a blowtorch to Komo’s weather center melting any snow icons in sight. 

[Deweydog]

46 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

On KOMO News they already said the cold is pretty much a slam dunk for next week.  Very rare you hear them say that this far out.

[jakerepp]

14 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

A T-Storm must be very rare there in the winter.

Yeah, I assume so. First one we've seen down here this winter.

[BLI snowman]

58 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

-8 departure at Salem today. Down to about -2.3 on the month. 

Can you imagine how cold those 2001-30 February averages are gonna be, Andrew!? Gonna be hard to see those kinds of departures in the 2030s but we'll still probably do it!!

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, jakerepp said:

Yeah, I assume so. First one we've seen down here this winter.

Are you coming up next week to enjoy the festivities? 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Can you imagine how cold those 2001-30 February averages are gonna be, Andrew!? Gonna be hard to see those kinds of departures in the 2030s but we'll still probably do it!!

As January continues to warm.

[Anti Marine Layer]

57 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

On KOMO News they already said the cold is pretty much a slam dunk for next week.  Very rare you hear them say that this far out.

Not an air ball or a brick

[snow_wizard]

12 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Damn that looks painful!

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

As January continues to warm.

January has to come around eventually.

[BLI snowman]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

As January continues to warm.

We may see February get dangerously close on those next 30 year norms. December will certainly be a lot colder than January.

[jakerepp]

9 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Are you coming up next week to enjoy the festivities? 

Believe it or not, I am coming up on Friday! I'll be there the 17th to 25th. Looks like it could be very interesting! 

Come on Randy, I know better than to miss mid-February!

[Doinko]

ICON is cold

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Icon is a BLAST!

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Icon is a BLAST!

Sub 510dm thickness nearly to Portland

[snow_wizard]

33.6 here already.  I could get used to this.

[snow_wizard]

15 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

We may see February get dangerously close on those next 30 year norms. December will certainly be a lot colder than January.

Quite interestingly Seattle averaged colder in February than December for the 1891 to 1940 period.  Kind of weird how this stuff flips around.

[snow_wizard]

12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Icon is a BLAST!

I think this has a shot at beating 2011.  Just saying it's possible given the look of the models right now.

[MossMan]

32.2! No more melting today! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think this has a shot at beating 2011.  Just saying it's possible given the look of the models right now.

Idk man…

[snow_wizard]

504 thickness within miles of here at the end of the ICON.  Wow!

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Idk man…

I'm going to look at it more closely tonight.

[TacomaWx]

35 here. The way we’re racking up freezes and the likely cold weather coming up looking like this will be a below normal month. We’re a lock for a colder DJF here.

[Doinko]

Day 5

 

[BLI snowman]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Quite interestingly Seattle averaged colder in February than December for the 1891 to 1940 period.  Kind of weird how this stuff flips around.

February was always a pretty consistent winter month for us up until 1939 or so. December was indeed pretty lame between about 1893 and 1918.  Just a handful of good events during that time.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like 850s probably dropped to -13 or -14 over SEA in 2011.  Going to be close.

[Doinko]

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Day 5

 

Wow!  Just gorgeous!

[Weiner Warrior]

15 straight hours of snow on GFS.... yes please

[Doinko]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Wow!  Just gorgeous!

Ridge amplifies better into AK on this run

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

35 here. The way we’re racking up freezes and the likely cold weather coming up looking like this will be a below normal month. We’re a lock for a colder DJF here.

When you throw in November it's really quite good.

[RentonHill]

That’s $$$$$

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Doinko said:

Ridge amplifies better into AK on this run

This thing is just rock solid.  About the best model consistency I've ever seen going into one of these.