PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[Timmy]

Moisture is pretty anemic for pdx unfortunately 

[TacomaWx]

Snow looks like it’s starting at hour 132 up in whatcom county. Snow down to Seattle by hour 135. Getting closer…

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Timmy said:

Moisture is pretty anemic for pdx unfortunately 

February 2011-like 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

These runs are so cold. 

[Deweydog]

26 minutes ago, T-Town said:

More snow, closer in time?

I suspect we’ll see things hedge toward more of an overwater trajectory. Could be better for snowfall, but not so much for cold.

[Doinko]

 

[Timmy]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

February 2011-like 

Don’t remember that one, so that is unfortunate.

[SnarkyGoblin]

1 minute ago, Timmy said:

Moisture is pretty anemic for pdx unfortunately 

I mean... given the pretty significant fluctuations even within 6 hours of where that moisture goes on the GFS, it's a pretty safe bet the 18z isn't the final location.

What seems to be certain now is the cold air.

[TT-SEA]

Despite sunshine all day again and a temp up to 40... our snow hangs on due to dry air.  

[AlTahoe]

7 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

@AlTahoe is soooooo  f u c k e d

Lol

[Cold Snap]

I have a feeling a big widespread snow event is going to happen next week especially since I’ll be gone! I’m hoping the fun will continue after I get back on the 25th though I may consider coming back a day or two early lol.

[JW8]

1 hour ago, MillCreekMike said:

This is definitely the most model agreement we’ve had for a potential event 7+ days out we’ve had all winter

Is it? I thought the ECMWF and GFS were both showing significant cold and snow for the central sound in Dec, which ended up cold but only ~2" of snow. You're probably right- just don't have the screenshots off-hand to look.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I suspect we’ll see things hedge toward more of an overwater trajectory. Could be better for snowfall, but not so much for cold.

Fine by me!

[snow_wizard]

VERY good 12z runs today!  The GFS and ECMWF both spit out sub freezing max temps for SEA.

[SouthHillFrosty]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Despite sunshine all day again and a temp up to 40... our snow hangs on due to dry air.  

Same here… but more meltage 

[Doinko]

Could someone post the 12z Euro WB meteogram for PDX?

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, JW8 said:

Is it? I thought the ECMWF and GFS were both showing significant cold and snow for the central sound in Dec, which ended up cold but only ~2" of snow. You're probably right- just don't have the screenshots off-hand to look.

Snow is always an impossible call at this range.  In December they were most certainly right about the cold.

[SouthHillFrosty]

The GFS goes below 32 at hour 160 and doesn’t get above it….,

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Could someone post the 12z Euro WB meteogram for PDX?

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

The GFS goes below 32 at hour 160 and doesn’t get above it….,

This look like it's going to be a major event.

[Doinko]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Thanks! Could you also post the high/low temps? Looks like some highs in the twenties at the end!

[JW8]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Snow is always an impossible call at this range.  In December they were most certainly right about the cold.

No doubt! Was just referencing that I believe both models were showing significant snow for the central sound in Dec as well, which didn't really pan out.

[MikeInEverett]

7 minutes ago, JW8 said:

Is it? I thought the ECMWF and GFS were both showing significant cold and snow for the central sound in Dec, which ended up cold but only ~2" of snow. You're probably right- just don't have the screenshots off-hand to look.

The December event had the most model flip flopping I have ever seen for an event. This hasn’t had much in the way of flip flopping yet and every model is mostly on the same page right now, and we’re less than 7 days away.

[snow_wizard]

Another snowy run for the Seattle area.  It has this thing hitting fairly early next week now.

[FroYoBro]

13 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I suspect we’ll see things hedge toward more of an overwater trajectory. Could be better for snowfall, but not so much for cold.

I hope Andrew isn't in public when he reads this. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

We are under 32 for around 100 hours. Wow!

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, FroYoBro said:

I hope Andrew isn't in public when he reads this. 

He can just put a Bible over it.

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

We are under 32 for around 100 hours. Wow!

That would be close to a benchmark for this late in the season. 2011 just had 2 sub freezing highs. 

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Thanks! Could you also post the high/low temps? Looks like some highs in the twenties at the end!

[WeatherGeek2022]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

absolutely nuts cold 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

That would be close to a benchmark for this late in the season. 2011 just had 2 sub freezing highs. 

If the models are right I think this will be a top 5 cold wave for this late in the season for the last 100 years or more.  I really can't believe Feb looks like it's going to perform yet again!

[TacomaWx]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

If the models are right I think this will be a top 5 cold wave for this late in the season for the last 100 years or more.  I really can't believe Feb looks like it's going to perform yet again!

Woah slow down there slugger lol. Long ways to go. 

[Deweydog]

Jim is onboard

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Woah slow down there slugger lol. Long ways to go. 

Just sayin IF the models are right.  That's a big caveat.  The trough being shown is epic.

[BLI snowman]

Same exact days as last year's airmass and the 2011 airmass. Wild!!

[SnowWillarrive]

22 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Despite sunshine all day again and a temp up to 40... our snow hangs on due to dry air.  

Same here. Shaded areas probably still have 1 inch ! 

[TacomaWx]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Just sayin IF the models are right.  That's a big caveat.  The trough being shown is epic.

Something pretty good next week is my guess…but as we know these things tend to get tweaked a bit as we go forward. Could be like 2011…or maybe ends up being closer to something like 2018 which was still good just not on the insane level. 

[RentonHill]

a lil magic way out there

[SouthHillFrosty]

Rip Portland 

[snow_wizard]

Incredible strat warming event.  We had the first wave, and now it's warming more.