PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[Rubus Leucodermis]

[Meatyorologist]

[Christensen87]

Here we go!

[WeatherGeek2022]

1 minute ago, Christensen87 said:

Here we go!

concerning level of confidence

[Christensen87]

32 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Looks like weather.com is starting to get on board with snow and cold temps!

Let's see how much colder those temps get in the coming days...

[Anti Marine Layer]

GOA ridges bring PNW troughs.

[Doinko]

Euro OP wasn't even much of an outlier. The mean gets down to -10.1c over a week out

[MikeInEverett]

This is definitely the most model agreement we’ve had for a potential event 7+ days out we’ve had all winter

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, MillCreekMike said:

This is definitely the most model agreement we’ve had for a potential event 7+ days out we’ve had all winter

At this point, it starts in 6 days. Things start to get interesting Tuesday. But yes…there’s been good agreement for several days now. 

[KingstonWX]

Quick, someone check the road temps...

[WeatherGeek2022]

sh*t bout to get real this winter finally. november/december was just the appetizer

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

At this point, it starts in 6 days. Things start to get interesting Tuesday. But yes…there’s been good agreement for several days now. 

Euro looks amazing. Though there were some crazy Euro runs in January and December so for this event I should probably be a bit more careful. GFS was actually the only model that didn't get really cold outside of the clown range for the late January event

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Euro looks amazing. Though there were some crazy Euro runs in January and December so for this event I should probably be a bit more careful. GFS was actually the only model that didn't get really cold outside of the clown range for the late January event

If it’s still looking this good by Saturday or Sunday it’ll be time to start sounding alarms…but I’m thinking based on the model agreement right now in the mid range it’s hard to ignore. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

If it’s still looking this good by Saturday or Sunday it’ll be time to start sounding alarms…but I’m thinking based on the model agreement right now in the mid range it’s hard to ignore. 

And the fact timing is moving up. 

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

If it’s still looking this good by Saturday or Sunday it’ll be time to start sounding alarms. 

Mark Nelsen is even mentioning it this early.

[LowerGarfield]

4 hours ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

I would happily take 2' at my house

Ditto but more would be welcomed.

[MossMan]

Best model agreement so far since…early December 2008???

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

And the fact timing is moving up. 

That’s always a very good sign. 

[LowerGarfield]

2 hours ago, fubario said:

Nope

I like this map but so close to the warm nose as well.

[SnowWillarrive]

8 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Best model agreement so far since…early December 2008???

Greatest February snowstorm incoming. 

[Deweydog]

2 hours ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I wanted to tell you i have been seeing a bunch of cam and lifter problems in the hemi engines, make sure to run a  good synthetic oil. I have replaced cam and lifters in two 5.7 hemi engines in the last 3 months.  This is if you still have the ram truck.

Thanks for the info! This is my fourth Ram and I’ve yet to have any significant issues. My 2009 had an exhaust manifold issue which turned out to be related to sh*tty bolts they used and I was lucky all those repairs were on Ram’s dime. My 2015 developed the tick but was asymptomatic, although I always felt like it was a “ticking” time bomb. The 2020 is tick free so far with about 22k miles on it…

[TacomaWx]

3 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

I like this map but so close to the warm nose as well.

That’s just the warning shot event. As modeled probably not much stickage below 500’ but that’s subject to change…

[Deweydog]

1 hour ago, RentonHill said:

Gird your loins now for the pullback that we all know is coming

Models will look different this weekend.

[LowerGarfield]

Looks like this very low pressure system will pass right over my location. WU is thinking maybe 29.50 or 29.60 and one of those maps showed the L for next Thursday near Clarkston, WA.

[T-Town]

19 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Models will look different this weekend.

More snow, closer in time?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Ok kick it off druncle.

[dhoffine]

3 minutes ago, T-Town said:

More snow, closer in time?

I don't think our models usually change in those ways LOL, I'm betting more like weaker, less snow, farther out, all the normal things we get used to around here.

 

[Doinko]

Day 5 trend

 

[Doinko]

Day 6

 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Nice improvement for more regional. Low comes in a little more south 

Edited February 15, 2023 by SouthHillFrosty

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Boom! 

[Doinko]

 

 

[Doinko]

Day 7

 

[Doinko]

So beautiful

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Day 7

 

Trough access more directly over us. 

[Doinko]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Trough access more directly over us. 

Low offshore just keeps feeding moisture into the Willamette Valley while arctic air is blasting through the Gorge

[LowerGarfield]

4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Nice improvement for more regional. Low comes in a little more south 

A real improvement for my location on that run.

[Doinko]

Day 8

 

[RentonHill]

@AlTahoe is soooooo  f u c k e d

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Day 8

 

Omg that is so beautiful.