PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, RentonHill said:

Kuchera is only half of 10:1. This gonna be some concrete

 

The cutoff is impressive. Major screw hole

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This is a straight up BLAST. 

[Doinko]

 

[RentonHill]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

The cutoff is impressive. Major screw hole

Gonna be  a long week!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

12z gem is much weaker with the trough.

Still pretty cold, looks like it dumps it offshore. 

[Timmy]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GEM is cold, and then the low just meanders around a screws everything up... Nothing like that on the ICON either. 

Back to the GFS, surface low moves down the Oregon coast on Wednesday dropping snow. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

WILD

[Timmy]

This is the kind of stuff dreams are made of. Low sitting offshore pulling cold air through the gorge and spinning up moisture.

[Doinko]

Wow

 

 

[Timmy]

Nutty

[AlTahoe]

5 minutes ago, Timmy said:

This is the kind of stuff dreams are made of. Low sitting offshore pulling cold air through the gorge and spinning up moisture.

Interesting that the GFS and Euro are both showing the low spinning back off shore. Gfs is just earlier. 

[Doinko]

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Interesting that the GFS and Euro are both showing the low spinning back off shore. Gfs is just earlier. 

Your area looks to get slammed. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The pattern delivers for everyone!

[SouthHillFrosty]

Some happy ppl, some sad ppl. 

[Slushy Inch]

[BLI snowman]

27 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

For late February here I would say there is a pretty clear top tier. 

1960

1962

1971

2011

Then 2018 and 2022 are pretty good, but not in the same class as the others. 1962 is the benchmark for single digit lows with a low of 8 on the 26th and 9 on the 27th. 1971 was probably the best combination of cold and snow, bottoming out at 11 on the 28th after about 30" of snow fell over the previous 3-4 days. 

2011 had 4 sub-freezing highs including a 28/14 and 27/10 on the 25th and 26th. The 27 is a benchmark, as the park has not recorded a sub 30 high any later. 

1890 is still the top DAWG as far as late February aimasses.

Downtown Portland had a high of 25 on the 25th, followed by a low of 10 on the 26th. With bare ground.

Spokane had an 8/-23 spread on the 26th with it.

[SnowWillarrive]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Some happy ppl, some sad ppl. 

Olympia been screwed all winter. 

[Slushy Inch]

GEFS a little faster. Not as fast as OP.

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

GEFS a little faster. Not as fast as OP.

Is it caused by the SSW event?

[AlTahoe]

12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Your area looks to get slammed. 

Looks very similar to Feb 1969.

" On Valentines Day, the Silver States 24-hour snowfall record was broken when 3 feet buried Daggett Pass near the Kingsbury Grade, east of Lake Tahoe. A total of 139 inches of snow fell on Daggett Pass during February 1969, and the maximum snow depth there reached 14.5 feet, both new state records. In late February, two snow surveyors near Big Whitney Meadow in the Southern Sierra measured 12 feet of new snow in just 48 hours! Persistent storms and huge snow drifts as high as 40 feet closed the Mt. Rose road (Route 431) for 37 days."

https://www.sierrasun.com/news/1969-tahoes-record-setting-winter/

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, Mr Marine Layer said:

Is it caused by the SSW event?

I don’t know, I’m not well versed on SSW events.

[Christensen87]

TWC forecast still not biting on any real cold next week. This will probably be updated within the next few days I’d think. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z GEM shows an absolutely majestic trough but is close to a non-event in terms of arctic air and lowland snow. 

[Slushy Inch]

If you can imagine GEFS is even better than last run.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

BOOM!

Edited February 15, 2023 by SilverFallsAndrew

[Slushy Inch]

Going to be  nail biting stuff. This is one hour after my flight lands.

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

BOOM!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GOD MODE

[SouthHillFrosty]

[Cloud]

Everyone build  Punxsutawney Phil a statue if this verifies. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Everyone build  Punxsutawney Phil a statue if this verifies. 

I will dismantle it if you do.

[Slushy Inch]

8 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Everyone build  Punxsutawney Phil a statue if this verifies. 

I don’t think east coast weenies would like that

[Mid Valley Duck]

13 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I would happily take 2' at my house

[Timmy]

Gefs

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

ICON is solid as a rock. 

For people who only care about snow, the bust potential is probably pretty high. 

If someone gifts you a bottle of Dom Perignon, why pour it down the toilet?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

23 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

If it verifies, I predict the usual suspects from a certain city in the southern Willamette
Valley will still go on as if their climate sucks and they never see anything good in the winter.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

If it verifies, I predict the usual suspects from a certain city in the southern Willamette
Valley will still go on as if their climate sucks and they never see anything good in the winter.

If this verifies it will be the first time in history that a crazy GFS pepto map has ever verified.   

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

If this verifies it will be the first time in history that a crazy GFS pepto map has ever verified.   

Didn't it verified couple years ago? 2018-2019 season.