PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[WeatherGeek2022]

all or nothing like the great 1968-69 winter.

[Doinko]

13 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Within like two days I'll be happy to model ride... but right now it's looking very 2011 or 2012 lite, neither of which were very good years for us.

PDX had 1.5" of snow and a 33/18 day in February 2011. Those temps were pretty top tier for that late. For what it's worth the Euro is much colder than both 2011 and 2012 here, though the Euro has been too cold for some of the previous cold snaps this winter.

[Perturbed Member]

1 hour ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Rip Portland 

It's ok, we'll just go to Astoria or Cannon Beach to get our fix. 

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

I'll have to pull up the maps for 2011 this evening.  See if we might have a shot at beating it.

Even if a few runs have shown a comparable air mass to 2011, I would set the bar lower. That's a helluva ask.

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Is the stratosphere even there now or did it burn up?      I mean... how hot can get it?     A displaced PV is a displaced PV.   That is about all that can happen.   Ironically... the models are showing the polar PV is actually still intact in 10 days.

Yeah, I'm not seeing the obvious fall out we've seen in the past from SSWs, as far as PV disruption.

[Blizzard777]

9 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

Looks like we’re still on track for winter madness in 7 days time. Really hope this one works out but there’s been pretty solid model agreement so far…

Lol…watch me get trapped here in Tennessee this time!

Supposed to fly back Thursday next week

46/28 Federal Way today and 72 degrees here in Pigeon Forge  

[Frontal Snowsquall]

2 hours ago, Doinko said:

Day 8

 

Nice to see some good model agreement now for the middle of next week. The 12z JMA out to day 8 is also onboard.

 

[Cloud]

 

[Deweydog]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

It still looks pretty thumpy though.

The PV has generally been weak for about a month, but definitely intact. It’s taking another sucker punch right now, but it looks like it might land on its wobbly feet. As some have alluded to, a death blow now or at a more traditional timeframe probably doesn’t mean a whole lot at this point. Might mean more to Phil though…

[T-Town]

More from jaya. 

[AlTahoe]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

We spend so much time on ridiculous GFS snowfall maps that pretty much never verify.   When has the GFS ever had the pattern exactly right through 384 hours?   Not to mention its poor resolution and over-estimating snow totals even in the short term.

Verbatim... the GFS on Monday showed that I would get 24-28 inches of snow yesterday in my area.    We got 2 inches.   It showed Snoqualmie Pass would get 36 inches and they actually got 15 inches.   That was just errors at 24 hours out... now multiply that times 16 more days.    

For the big storm cycles the Gfs will show insane numbers and then back them down to something more reasonable as we get closer. Although for the late Dec early Jan cycle it was showing like 250" over the Sierra crest and come places got 300" +

It was showing like 150" for In town and we got 120" so not to bad. Usually when it misses bad for us it is due to marginal temperature situations. This storm cycle being so cold makes me think it may actually happen. 

[Kolk1604]

Not sure if this was talked about yet. Nice to see it from the EMCWF 

 

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

For the big storm cycles the Gfs will show insane numbers and then back them down to something more reasonable as we get closer. Although for the late Dec early Jan cycle it was showing like 250" over the Sierra crest and come places got 300" +

It was showing like 150" for In town and we got 120" so not to bad. Usually when it misses bad for us it is due to marginal temperature situations. This storm cycle being so cold makes me think it may actually happen. 

Good point... this probably won't be marginal down there.  

[SouthHillFrosty]

Worse for Seattle, better for Oregon!

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Worse for Seattle, better for Oregon!

For 850mb temps it's much better.
Mean 850mb temps at their coldest for PDX:
GEFS: -9.6c
EPS: -10.1c
CMCE: -6.9c

[Doinko]

45/28 today at PDX with sunny skies. Below average temps and very nice

46/23 at EUG

[Doinko]

Also looks like EUG officially recorded 0.5" of snow yesterday at the airport

[Kolk1604]

6 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Worse for Seattle, better for Oregon!

You guys always say trust the ensembles so that's what imma do 

[thisisacreativename]

20 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Worse for Seattle, better for Oregon!

That's just ridiculous for an ensemble mean.

[TT-SEA]

12 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

You guys always say trust the ensembles so that's what imma do 

Well... the GEFS has terrible terrain issues and assumes most of western WA is in the mountains.    So its impossible to trust its snowfall maps.    I think the general rule is trust the ensembles with the 500mb pattern after day 7.  

[Gummy]

12 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

You guys always say trust the ensembles so that's what imma do 

10+ inches down the entire coastline, even into Cali!

[TacomaWx]

45/28 today…still some snow hanging on in the shaded areas. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

2 hours ago, FroYoBro said:

I hope Andrew isn't in public when he reads this. 

Is it a he or a she or a they?

[Phil]

 

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

 

Is the SSW the reason for the cold?

[SouthHillFrosty]

[SnowySeeker50]

46/28 spread today. Snow in the shade will live to see another day.

[RentonHill]

18z GEFS vs EPS for day 6

 

[Phil]

17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Well... the GEFS has terrible terrain issues and assumes most of western WA is in the mountains.    So it’s impossible to trust its snowfall maps.    I think the general rule is trust the ensembles with the 500mb pattern after day 7.  

To rely on the GEFS (esp snow maps/p-type) in areas with complex terrain borders on negligence. If you live in the Plains or Midwest region maybe it’s a different story, I don’t know. Even here they’re barely functional.

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Is the SSW the reason for the cold?

Yes, if you include indirect influence(s) of the SSW on the tropical forcing/MJO.

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

18z GEFS vs EPS for day 6

 

EPS is even better than the GEFS and that's saying something!

[MossMan]

I absolutely love these non snow killing days! Even though I had a high of 43 we still didn’t lose all that much snow today. Which is insane since I only started with 1.25” Monday night/early Tuesday morning. 

[Omegaraptor]

28 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Well... the GEFS has terrible terrain issues and assumes most of western WA is in the mountains.    So its impossible to trust its snowfall maps.    I think the general rule is trust the ensembles with the 500mb pattern after day 7.  

WDYM Brookings won't get more snow than anywhere in eastern WA?

[RCola]

3 hours ago, JW8 said:

No doubt! Was just referencing that I believe both models were showing significant snow for the central sound in Dec as well, which didn't really pan out.

Had the low on Dec. 23rd not tracked as far north as it did in the final 24 hours, the outcome would have matched exactly what the GFS and Euro predicted. Both models clearly showed a very tight boundary between snow and ice, and Seattle was pretty close to that boundary. Unfortunately, Mother Nature broke in favor of ice that time.

What we really want at this point is the consistent presence of blue and pepto snow maps in our vicinity from model run to model run. The total is insignificant. Heck, even the maximum snowfall total on the map is insignificant. What matters is whether or not the ingredients to produce snow appear consistently from run to run and also whether these ingredients are being modeled in a way that makes physical sense with how the upper levels are being modeled. The particulars of snow amounts and where the snow will fall are only known about 24 hours ahead of time (if we're lucky). 

[SouthHillFrosty]

 

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Nice to see some good model agreement now for the middle of next week. The 12z JMA out to day 8 is also onboard.

 

It's nice to have actual model agreement and stability on something like this.  It really increases confidence.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Snow stuck around. 38/23 

[snow_wizard]

16 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

WDYM Brookings won't get more snow than anywhere in eastern WA?

With this pattern it's theoretically possible that could happen.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Snow stuck around. 38/23 

I still have a little here in the shade.  Nice numbers you put up today.

My month to date average is falling like a rock and we aren't even to the good stuff yet!

[snow_wizard]

Meanwhile...another cold one tonight.  I'm really liking how this has unfolded!