August 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[MossMan]

Feel like I’m about to lose it honestly.

You can take a drive north and enjoy my drizzlefest! We could meet up with Phil if he’s still in town and talk some WHAM!

[Kayla]

We’ve completely lost the Euro now as well. Basically back to the western ridge pattern that dominated most of July after day 5.

 

Could be another long stretch of 90s coming up.

 

Just nuts that PDX could already easily surpass the record highest number of 90 degree days just 3 years later. Even with the UHI effect at PDX, the Willamette Valley has seen a pretty major climate shift recently.

[Jesse]

Just nuts that PDX could already easily surpass the record highest number of 90 degree days just 3 years later. Even with the UHI effect at PDX, the Willamette Valley has seen a pretty major climate shift recently.

We still have ten to go. But definitely in the range of possible considering the absolute blowtorch months August and September usually are these days.

[Jesse]

[Kayla]

We still have ten to go. But definitely in the range of possible considering the absolute blowtorch months August and September usually are these days.

 

Yeah I lost count a while ago. I just knew it was a lot already.

[Deweydog]

[Jesse]

The next several days look quite enjoyable. Some rain would be nice, but this time of year can often times be quite dry.

You make it sound so normal. Which of course implies that the everyone is a dramatic idiot but you crowd is overreacting.

 

I don’t see what’s wrong with admitting this has been a pretty god D**n abnormal stretch.

[Deweydog]

You make it sound so normal. Which of course implies that the everyone is a dramatic idiot but you crowd is overreacting.

 

I don’t see what’s wrong with admitting this has been a pretty god d**n abnormal stretch.

Sorry for not coming unnecessarily unhinged over things I have no control over. Take what you can get and hope for the best.

 

Your Timness is showing like a mofo right now. It's as plain as day it's been an exceptionally warm/dry stretch, belaboring the point isn't a requisite activity.

[Jesse]

Sorry for not coming unnecessarily unhinged over things I have no control over. Take what you can get and hope for the best.

 

Your Timness is showing like a mofo right now. It's as plain as day it's been an exceptionally warm/dry stretch, belaboring the point isn't a requisite activity.

Stop being a d**k dude. Tim makes dry patterns sound wet. And probably posts about it 20x more. Not to mention the tirades when it actually is wet. Trust me, if the region was in a cold and wet pattern I wouldn’t be trying to convince everyone how warm and dry it is IMBY.

 

I have generally kept pretty quiet about the ridiculous heat this summer, all things considered. As for what I have posted, is anything I have said really all that unreasonable? I wish there was more analysis and the like regarding the causes of this sort of thing, like my 4CH post above that will go entirely overlooked. I actually enjoy talking about that stuff, like we used to do sometimes on our much maligned PM convos.

[Deweydog]

Stop being a d**k dude. Tim makes dry patterns sound wet. And probably posts about it 20x more. Not to mention the tirades when it actually is wet. Trust me, if the region was in a cold and wet pattern I wouldn’t be trying to convince everyone how warm and dry it is IMBY.

 

I have generally kept pretty quiet about the ridiculous heat this summer, all things considered. As for what I have posted, is anything I have said really all that unreasonable? I wish there was more analysis and the like regarding the causes of this sort of thing, like my 4CH post above that will go entirely overlooked. I actually enjoy talking about that stuff, like we used to do sometimes on our much maligned PM convos.

Staying level-headed is **** worthy? It's still a matter of belaboring. Your last 24 hours have been pretty Tim-like, or at least the closest analog we have around here.

 

Most people knew a hot July was pretty likely, and with continuing feedback effects of western drought, chances were fairly good it could have been exceptionally hot. It worked out that way. August is starting fairly normal to slightly below. As for next week, maybe it turns hott again, MAYBE IT DOESN'T. Models aren't exactly locked in at the moment.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Staying level-headed is **** worthy? It's still a matter of belaboring. Your last 24 hours have been pretty Tim-like, or at least the closest analog we have around here.

 

Most people knew a hot July was pretty likely, and with continuing feedback effects of western drought, chances were fairly good it could have been exceptionally hot. It worked out that way. August is starting fairly normal to slightly below. As for next week, maybe it turns hott again, MAYBE IT DOESN'T. Models aren't exactly locked in at the moment.

 

Great point. The long term drought and record low soil moisture and dry vegetation were probably also responsible for a couple days hitting 90 that would not typically have done so given the upper level support...

[James Jones]

I wonder if what the runs a few days ago were showing is something that might have actually verified a couple decades ago. Then they snap back into our global warming reality.

 

I think the western heat/four corners high is just too strong and expansive to be kept at bay for long these days. It has become a more potent pattern forcer than anything dropping from the NW. So much so that it squeezes what would have been a robust trough into a cutoff low offshore as the western ridge reasserts itself.

 

The northern branch/GOA ridge tries to run the show for a bit but just can’t overcome the western heat dome for long.

 

Seems like a plausible explanation. 

 

Thoughts on this Dewey? 

[Kayla]

Great point. The long term drought and record low soil moisture and dry vegetation were probably also responsible for a couple days hitting 90 that would not typically have done so given the upper level support...

 

Yeah this fact is overlooked a lot or blamed on a sensor.

[Front Ranger]

Seems like a plausible explanation.

 

It does, but tying it to global warming is questionable, considering the amount of global warming since the last period we saw cooler summers is quite small.

 

As far as the models advertising a big trough and then falling apart...I think you always have to be skeptical when they show a massive pattern change. Persistence often wins out.

[Jesse]

Staying level-headed is **** worthy? It's still a matter of belaboring. Your last 24 hours have been pretty Tim-like, or at least the closest analog we have around here.

 

Most people knew a hot July was pretty likely, and with continuing feedback effects of western drought, chances were fairly good it could have been exceptionally hot. It worked out that way. August is starting fairly normal to slightly below. As for next week, maybe it turns hott again, MAYBE IT DOESN'T. Models aren't exactly locked in at the moment.

I think you have a very low threshold as to what you define as belaboring when it comes to others.

[Jesse]

It does, but tying it to global warming is questionable, considering the amount of global warming since the last period we saw cooler summers is quite small.

 

As far as the models advertising a big trough and then falling apart...I think you always have to be skeptical when they show a massive pattern change. Persistence often wins out.

Captain obvious strikes back!

[James Jones]

It does, but tying it to global warming is questionable, considering the amount of global warming since the last period we saw cooler summers is quite small.

 

As far as the models advertising a big trough and then falling apart...I think you always have to be skeptical when they show a massive pattern change. Persistence often wins out.

 

 

Sure, doesn't necessarily have to be caused by AGW, it could be natural variation instead. That's outside the scope of my knowledge but the overall point still makes sense.

 

Obviously our region has always been on the edge of the 4CH, so even a slight strengthening/expansion of it could make a big difference locally. It would explain why such a high percentage of summertime troughs in recent years seem to end up offshore - the 4CH is strong enough that troughs can't really make their way in. 

 

Supposedly the Medieval Warm Period also featured a strong/expansive 4CH, I'd be interested to know what summers were like out here during that era.

[Jesse]

Sure, doesn't necessarily have to be caused by AGW, it could be natural variation instead. That's outside the scope of my knowledge but the overall point still makes sense.

 

Obviously our region has always been on the edge of the 4CH, so even a slight strengthening/expansion of it could make a big difference locally. It would explain why such a high percentage of summertime troughs in recent years seem to end up offshore - the 4CH is strong enough that troughs can't really make their way in.

 

Supposedly the Medieval Warm Period also featured a strong/expansive 4CH, I'd be interested to know what summers were like out here during that era.

Yeah, getting into the semantics of global warming sort of masks the overall point I was trying to make, which you supplemented well here.

 

I would be fascinated to know what ours seasons were like during the medieval warm period compared to now.

[Jesse]

Seems like the EPS wants to keep the trough a lot closer to us than the operational. Would be a nice middle ground.

[Deweydog]

Seems like a plausible explanation.

 

Thoughts on this Dewey?

I dunno. Trying to objectively quantify actual climate change's role in the last few summers is probably impossible. What we do know is western drought is very real and quantifiable. I don't think it's much of a stretch to imagine the feedback effects of such dry soils are a big part of why warm patterns have been so warm.

[BLI snowman]

I dunno. Trying to objectively quantify actual climate change's role in the last few summers is probably impossible. What we do know is western drought is very real and quantifiable. I don't think it's much of a stretch to imagine the feedback effects of such dry soils are a big part of why warm patterns have been so warm.

Lack of cloud cover is a big one here locally.

[Deweydog]

Lack of cloud cover is a big one here locally.

Klouds do make it kooler!

[BLI snowman]

Klouds do make it kooler!

So do troughs.

 

Haven't seen any of either lately.

[BLI snowman]

50 years ago it took a pretty funky setup to deliver this kind of result (August 1967).

 

Now we get some version of that persistence pretty much every summer. It is what it is. Strong ENSO forcings like 2011 are about the only thing that can shake up that gravy train now.

[Deweydog]

So do troughs.

 

Haven't seen any of either lately.

It was clowdy this morning.

[Jesse]

It was clowdy this morning.

This stuff gets kinda old.

 

Do you ever even have a point or are you just on a constant quest to make everyone around you appear foolish?

[Jesse]

Edits? Yes, they are.

Fortunately this answers the question I edited in.

[Deweydog]

This stuff gets kinda old.

 

Do you ever even have a point or are you just on a constant quest to make everyone around you appear foolish?

Edits? Yes, they are!

 

You're just as likely as anyone here to unnecessarily give people a little poke. Maybe it's time for another break.

[Jesse]

Edits? Yes, they are!

 

You're just as likely as anyone here to unnecessarily give people a little poke. Maybe it's time for another break.

Nah. I’ll be just fine. Not taking your ever present bait is a big part of that.

[Deweydog]

Nah. I’ll be just fine.

Suit yourself.

 

If you want some scientific discussion, go for it. One word, profane posts or emotional ramblings don't exactly promote said environment though.

 

#practicewhatyoupreach

[Jesse]

Suit yourself.

 

If you want some scientific discussion, go for it. One word, profane posts or emotional ramblings don't exactly promote said environment though.

 

#practicewhatyoupreach

Man, you are feeling nasty today huh? I must have offended you.

 

No one here is perfect. But I would say the grand majority of my posts are weather related. That is something I try to shoot for. Ironically those are often the ones that get the least amount of play by far.

[Deweydog]

Man, you are feeling nasty today huh? I must have offended you.

 

No one here is perfect. But I would say the grand majority of my posts are weather related. That is something I try to shoot for.

Nice day!

 

****.

[Jesse]

Nice day!

 

****.

Go **** yourself. Lol!!!

[Deweydog]

Go **** yourself. Lol!!!

Caution! Scienticians at work!

[Jesse]

Caution! Scienticians at work!

You could contribute a lot more scienticious content here than you allow yourself to. The same could probably be said for me.

[FroYoBro]

Stop being a d**k dude. Tim makes dry patterns sound wet. And probably posts about it 20x more. Not to mention the tirades when it actually is wet. Trust me, if the region was in a cold and wet pattern I wouldn’t be trying to convince everyone how warm and dry it is IMBY.

 

I have generally kept pretty quiet about the ridiculous heat this summer, all things considered. As for what I have posted, is anything I have said really all that unreasonable? I wish there was more analysis and the like regarding the causes of this sort of thing, like my 4CH post above that will go entirely overlooked. I actually enjoy talking about that stuff, like we used to do sometimes on our much maligned PM convos.

 

He really isn't being more of a **** than usual.

 

I mean you are being a bit overly dramatic today which allows the Tim comparisons to occur.

[Jesse]

He really isn't being more of a **** than usual.

 

I mean you are being a bit overly dramatic today which allows the Tim comparisons to occur.

This is true.

 

What exactly have I said that is overdramatic? I am not at all happy about the advertised rainy pattern falling apart, and I am upset by the ongoing drought and horrific fire seasons. That much is for certain. I don’t think I am alone in that by any means, though. It’s not like anyone has really been exaggerating the situation.

[MossMan]

This is true.

 

What exactly have I said that is overdramatic? I am not at all happy about the advertised rainy pattern falling apart, and I am upset by the ongoing drought and horrific fire seasons. That much is for certain. I don’t think I am alone in that by any means, though. It’s not like anyone has really been exaggerating the situation.

You did have a Jim moment earlier today! But then again we all have our Jim moments.

[Jesse]

You did have a Jim moment earlier today! But then again we all have our Jim moments.

Wait, I thought I was Tim? Or Dewey. I am confused.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sad reacts only...

http://www.bluemountaineagle.com/Local_News/20180731/prairie-city-calls-for-water-restrictions