September 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

The next heatwave should be winding down by the time we get to October.

With a second one on the doorstep?

[TT-SEA]

Again FWIW... the 12Z WRF does not show the rain arriving in the Seattle area until 11 p.m.

[El_Nina]

So 66 degrees with a dewpoint of 46?

Lol that's nothing compared to this!

[Phil]

Very very soupy morning in Fort Lauderdale.

87/76 there as of 12pm. Typical late August day here.

[El_Nina]

87/76 there as of 12pm. Typical late August day here.

That's exactly what it is here, how do you do it?

[TT-SEA]

That's exactly what it is here, how do you do it?

 

 

Sounds lovely... we go to Hawaii every February just for that tropical weather along with a million other people.   Going back to 42 degrees and sideways rain always sucks though.

 

Hawaii and the Caribbean are pretty popular winter escapes!

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS starting to trend towards the late week clipper solution that the ECMWF picked up on yesterday...

 

 

 

12Z ICON still not quite there...

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Fills the entire valley down to Eugene/Springfield! Very promising if there is any correlation between where we are now and Dec.

Yeah, last nights 00z EURO came in even better. That's very cold air for this time of year that drops down into Montana. I wish we could just fast forward 2 months from now!

 

[Timmy]

Very very soupy morning in Fort Lauderdale.

my bro in law is there for a conference. Do you do financial planning ?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Any predictions for the first frontal snow squall? I'll bet there's a frontal rainsquall or 2 or 3 or 4 in October or November...

I'm thinking the first legitimate Arctic Blast will be in December.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS actually returns us to ridging quickly for next weekend though... even with the clipper being shown now.

 

 

[Farmboy]

Those mountains sure are effective at doing their job- keeping the cold air out of the western lowlands.

[Timmy]

I'm thinking the first legitimate Arctic Blast will be in December.

hot take

[MossMan]

I'm thinking the first legitimate Arctic Blast will be in December.

A week before Thanksgiving. Then a major windstorm on Thanksgiving Day.

[Front Ranger]

And somehow SEA misses out. They have probably been one of the driest locations in the Puget sound area the last 3-4months.

 

Nah. Tim to Mossman has just been one of the "wettest". This forum is over-represented by people in unusually wet areas. 

 

 

[Jesse]

Those mountains sure are effective at doing their job- keeping the cold air out of the western lowlands.

I thought that was your job?

[TT-SEA]

Lovely morning... and pleasantly warm.

 

[Jesse]

Nah. Tim to Mossman has just been one of the "wettest". This forum is over-represented by people in unusually wet areas.

 

 

90dPNormWRCC-NW.png

Matt plz hlp.

[Front Ranger]

Still sunny here in Newport. 3 days in a row of sun and calm winds on the Oregon Coast is truly remarkable!

 

Though not crazy remarkable in September. 

[TT-SEA]

Matt plz hlp.

July and August were very dry for me and Randy too. No doubt that the 3-month map would show us a little drier than normal even in our relatively wet area.

 

We are only between 90-100% of normal rain over the last 3 months.   Brutal summer!  

[Front Ranger]

July and August were very dry for me and Randy too. No doubt that the 3-month map would show us a little drier than normal even in our relatively wet area.

 

We are only between 90-100% of normal rain over the last 3 months.   Brutal summer!  

 

But you're *always* dry in the summer, remember? And yet your sopping wet September still hasn't pushed you above normal precip for the past 3 months. Odd how these things work.

[Front Ranger]

Wow, just took a look at the Euro. What a fantastic block and impressive cold air dump.

 

Would love to see it verify. I don't care what anyone says, getting patterns like that in early fall is a good sign.

[TT-SEA]

But you're *always* dry in the summer, remember? And yet your sopping wet September still hasn't pushed you above normal precip for the past 3 months. Odd how these things work.

 

September is definitely making up the deficit.     

 

We are normally dry in the summer.    But if we had 1.5 inches of rain instead of 2 inches of rain in the heart of summer then the maps would look very dry as a percentage of normal.   But the reality is that we were only short by half an inch in that example.

[TT-SEA]

And after this weekend... the area between Randy and me will probably be at or a little above normal for the last 3 months.    That period basically covers the traditional definition of summer around here from mid-June through mid-September.   

 

So even in this ridiculously dry summer with severe drought... we will end up right around normal for rain.    Not so brutal.   

[Jesse]

Amazing how many words can still basically say nothing.

[TT-SEA]

Amazing how many words can still basically say nothing.

The area north and east of Seattle where Randy and I live will end up around normal for rain even during this record setting dry "summer".

 

We refuse to participate in the severe drought.

[Jesse]

GFS ensembles and EPS not remarkably sold on the retrogression idea.

 

Could be one of those times the operational runs lead the way and the ensembles play catch up, or maybe not.

[TT-SEA]

GFS ensembles and EPS not remarkably sold on the retrogression idea.

 

Could be one of those times the operational runs lead the way and the ensembles play catch up, or maybe not.

Operational GFS is pretty darn nice too.

 

It does not show any more rain after this imcoming system.

[Jesse]

Operational GFS is pretty darn nice too.

Ensembles are actually much cooler than the operational GFS in the long range. I was more talking about the relatively small number of individual members showing a big, Euro style crash in the mid range.

[TT-SEA]

Ensembles are actually much cooler than the operational GFS in the long range. I was more talking about the relatively small number of individual members showing a big, Euro style crash in the mid range.

 

 

The operational GFS, GEM, ICON, and even the new FV3-GFS do not show a Euro-style crash either.  

 

You sort of implied that all the operational runs show it but the ensembles do not.  

[Front Ranger]

The area north and east of Seattle where Randy and I live will end up around normal for rain even during this record setting dry "summer".

 

We refuse to participate in the severe drought.

 

And SEA has been much closer to the reality of the situation for most of the lowlands. They have not been an outlier over the past 3-4 months, as someone implied.

[Jesse]

The operational GFS, GEM, ICON, and even the new FV3-GFS do not show a Euro-style crash either.

 

You sort of implied that all the operational runs show it but the ensembles do not.

Nah, just was pointing out that the operational GFS and Euro were slightly more bullish than their ensembles.

[TT-SEA]

And SEA has been much closer to the reality of the situation for most of the lowlands. They have not been an outlier over the past 3-4 months, as someone implied.

The disparity between SEA and the areas around SEA has been larger than usual this month... and in May and June as well.

 

I know this firsthand.... and so do other people who live here.

 

SEA has received 1.91 inches of rain since May 1st. I have received over a foot of rain since then... 6 inches in May and June and over 6 inches so far in September. I normally have about double the rainfall at SEA... not 6 times as much rain.

 

SEA is more representative of SW WA and Oregon. There is a more distinct than usual line to the north and east of Seattle this year. It is what it is. Vancouver Island has also been really dry.

[TT-SEA]

68 and partly sunny here... beautiful day.

[TT-SEA]

FWIW... 12Z ECMWF looks less "crashy" at 120 hours compared to the last 2 runs.

[Front Ranger]

The disparity between SEA and the areas around SEA has been larger than usual this month... and in May and June as well.

 

I know this firsthand.... and so do other people who live here.  

 

SEA has received 1.91 inches of rain since May 1st.    I have received over a foot of rain since then... 6 inches in May and June and over 6 inches so far in September.    I normally have about double the rainfall at SEA... not 6 times as much rain.

 

SEA is more representative of SW WA and Oregon.   There is more distinct than usual line to the north and east of Seattle this year.  It is what it is.   Vancouver Island has also been really dry.   

 

SEA is more representative of the lowlands than you are...I don't know why you're citing your stats as if that proves SEA is some kind of outlier. You were much wetter than the vast majority of the lowlands this month and in May/June.

 

Seattle WFO has only received slightly more rain this month than SEA. It's not like everywhere else has been closer to you and SEA is way out on its own.

 

As far as what is normal, the Seattle area is almost always significantly drier than areas to the north and east, and to the south like OLM. So there really hasn't been anything weird going on in that respect this month or since the dry season started.

 

That's why the 90 day map I posted earlier didn't show any kind of dry hole over the SEA area, for percentage of normal precip.

[Front Ranger]

As this map shows, most of the Puget Sound region near the Sound has been drier relative to normal than areas in and near the foothills. SEA may be one of the drier stations this month, but they still reflect what's been going on quite well - just as your numbers do, Tim.

 

It's really the Everett area that's the outlier!

 

[TT-SEA]

SEA is more representative of the lowlands than you are...I don't know why you're citing your stats as if that proves SEA is some kind of outlier. You were much wetter than the vast majority of the lowlands this month and in May/June.

 

Seattle WFO has only received slightly more rain this month than SEA. It's not like everywhere else has been closer to you and SEA is way out on its own.

 

As far as what is normal, the Seattle area is almost always significantly drier than areas to the north and east, and to the south like OLM. So there really hasn't been anything weird going on in that respect this month or since the dry season started.

 

 

I am talking about precipitation anomalies.  Not that SEA is normally drier than here... no sh*t.

 

The usual difference has been greater than normal between the Seattle area and places around Seattle... WFO SEA and SEA both are in the Seattle area.   

 

The area to the north and east of Seattle was much wetter compared to average in May and June than SEA.  How many times did we post those maps??   And its happening again in September to a lesser degree.

[Front Ranger]

I am talking about precipitation anomalies.  Not that SEA is normally drier than here... no sh*t.

 

The usual difference has been greater than normal between the Seattle area and places around Seattle... WFO SEA and SEA both are in the Seattle area.   

 

The area to the north and east of Seattle was much wetter compared to average in May and June than SEA.  How many times did we post those maps??   And its happening again in September to a lesser degree.

 

This completely ignores the last part of my post. Dumb.

[Front Ranger]

I am talking about precipitation anomalies.  Not that SEA is normally drier than here... no sh*t.

 

The usual difference has been greater than normal between the Seattle area and places around Seattle... WFO SEA and SEA both are in the Seattle area.   

 

The area to the north and east of Seattle was much wetter compared to average in May and June than SEA.  How many times did we post those maps??   And its happening again in September to a lesser degree.

 

But it's been inferred that SEA hasn't even reflected the Seattle area.