Niko Posted October 5, 2018 Report Share Posted October 5, 2018 Yeah, you guys have had ample rains compared to mby. Let this batch take the slightly further south route. I wanna be excited for this new wet pattern too, lol 20181005 NOAA wx map.gif Now, just convert this Flash Flood hatched zone to "Heavy Snow" and.. BINGO!.jpgI like the way these low pressure areas are already aligning up in the south and making a B-Line towards MI. Man, this will clobber your area Jaster come Winter and hopefully mine as well. Of course, w cold air in pl. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 5, 2018 Report Share Posted October 5, 2018 GFS still with the idea of a large plains system next fri-sat but looks to weaken as it heads northeast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 5, 2018 Report Share Posted October 5, 2018 GFS still with the idea of a large plains system next fri-sat but looks to weaken as it heads northeast.Brings snow within one county of here. Scary. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted October 5, 2018 Report Share Posted October 5, 2018 The HRRR just keeps drifting south with the heavy rain this evening and overnight. It's even south of Iowa City now. The latest run has Cedar Rapids getting nothing. At the rate this is going, the widespread several inches of rain that was expected across the area through mid next week is going to end up being 1-2" Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted October 5, 2018 Report Share Posted October 5, 2018 Oddly, the WPC's new precip forecast actually shifted the heavy band north to CR to Dubuque. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 5, 2018 Report Share Posted October 5, 2018 I like the way these low pressure areas are already aligning up in the south and making a B-Line towards MI. Man, this will clobber your area Jaster come Winter and hopefully mine as well. Of course, w cold air in pl. Still have leaf change and drop to get thru, heck 1st frost for that matter, so I'm figuring we're a solid 6 weeks from any real winter threat..but yeah, if we can see more of this when we finally get to the cold season, look out. Should NOT be boring 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 5, 2018 Report Share Posted October 5, 2018 18z a bit further south with the system next fri-sat. Going off 850s it looks like some flakes in IA. Pretty amazing how many wintry like systems are showing up in the medium-long range. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted October 5, 2018 Report Share Posted October 5, 2018 First batch of storms is missing CR just barely south. I hate that. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 5, 2018 Report Share Posted October 5, 2018 Um, I'm pretty sure the modeling is flashing 3 different types of winter storm patterns at me that will all be near perfect. Am I seeing that right?! Holy cow! In winter, that would be an exciting 14 day stretch, to say the least. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 6, 2018 Report Share Posted October 6, 2018 Still have leaf change and drop to get thru, heck 1st frost for that matter, so I'm figuring we're a solid 6 weeks from any real winter threat..but yeah, if we can see more of this when we finally get to the cold season, look out. Should NOT be boringFun times ahead. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 6, 2018 Report Share Posted October 6, 2018 Currently 58F and cloudy. A wet weekend shaping up. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted October 6, 2018 Report Share Posted October 6, 2018 It rained hard in North Liberty earlier with cloud to ground lightning. Very cool storm. The high school a few miles away is showing 1.2" of rain so far. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted October 6, 2018 Report Share Posted October 6, 2018 Been getting rocked all night here in south central IA. 1.9 inches so far and still pounding outside. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 6, 2018 Author Report Share Posted October 6, 2018 It rained hard in North Liberty earlier with cloud to ground lightning. Very cool storm. The high school a few miles away is showing 1.2" of rain so far.Nice to see ya back Bud! I saw your post the other day and meant to reply but forgot. Hope your doing well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted October 6, 2018 Report Share Posted October 6, 2018 Iowa City is getting trained, Cedar Rapids is getting nothing. $%!!! Dang HRRR has been exactly right all day, unfortunately. This entire week has been a bust for CR. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 6, 2018 Report Share Posted October 6, 2018 Iowa City is getting trained, Cedar Rapids is getting nothing. $%!!! Dang HRRR has been exactly right all day, unfortunately. This entire week has been a bust for CR. Welcome to my club..last week. Tonight I'm getting pounded attm. Now this is legit RN Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 6, 2018 Report Share Posted October 6, 2018 T'stms rolled on through last night...some strong. Currently, wet and much milder w temps in the 60s. More storms later today and tanite. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 6, 2018 Report Share Posted October 6, 2018 18z a bit further south with the system next fri-sat. Going off 850s it looks like some flakes in IA. Pretty amazing how many wintry like systems are showing up in the medium-long range.Good sign! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 6, 2018 Author Report Share Posted October 6, 2018 It's really nice to hear, that nearly everyone on here is getting in on the action as the atmosphere ramps up and the activity increases while Autumn continues to progress. Certainly "feels" like nature has flipped the switch and we are experiencing a different pattern. As the saying goes, "out with the old, in with the new"... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 6, 2018 Report Share Posted October 6, 2018 Colors are now getting closer to peaking in full force here IMBY. Partial to almost near peak. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted October 6, 2018 Report Share Posted October 6, 2018 Radar rain estimates show 6” right over top of me. However I am seeing closer to 3” at the high school and Iowa City airport. Either way it poured rain and it’s not done here yet. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted October 6, 2018 Report Share Posted October 6, 2018 Close to 5” here and still pouring. I’m in a flash flood warning now! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted October 6, 2018 Report Share Posted October 6, 2018 0.67" here overnight into this morning. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 6, 2018 Report Share Posted October 6, 2018 It's really nice to hear, that nearly everyone on here is getting in on the action as the atmosphere ramps up and the activity increases while Autumn continues to progress. Certainly "feels" like nature has flipped the switch and we are experiencing a different pattern. As the saying goes, "out with the old, in with the new"...It feels like its been the same pattern over and over for like 3 years now for me. Lol. I'm glad that nonsense is over. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted October 6, 2018 Report Share Posted October 6, 2018 Euro showing a snowy pattern upcoming. http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2018100600/conus/ecmwf_acc_snow_conus_240.png 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 6, 2018 Report Share Posted October 6, 2018 0.67" here overnight into this morning. 0.75 here in Marshall. Nothing personal ofc, but it's nice to be able to say I beat you if only 1 out of 20 chances This ofc, is nothing compared to y'all out in The Plains but this is the biggest event for mby in at least 5 wks! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 6, 2018 Report Share Posted October 6, 2018 Euro showing a snowy pattern upcoming. http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2018100600/conus/ecmwf_acc_snow_conus_240.png Just outside our sub, but yeah, that's darn robust for the Ole Euro. Bully!! I say to expanded WSWatches and future Warnings Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 6, 2018 Report Share Posted October 6, 2018 Getting closer... I can't wait. Gonna be a shocker and could get stronger as we go. Could get weaker also I guess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 6, 2018 Report Share Posted October 6, 2018 Got a ton of rain today. Some clearing taking pl, but more rains are on the way. Definitely ova an 1" ya'll. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 6, 2018 Report Share Posted October 6, 2018 Current temp at 73F and DP at 70F. Not a good combo! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 6, 2018 Report Share Posted October 6, 2018 Radar is looking juicy...some t'stms, some locally severe are coming for SEMI. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted October 6, 2018 Report Share Posted October 6, 2018 Got 0.68" here last night. Better than nothing, but it sucks that the heaviest rain missed us by just about 20 miles. Hopefully the rest of the systems can still deliver some decent rain totals. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 6, 2018 Report Share Posted October 6, 2018 NYC Skyline in 2030 . Man, I gotta go back there. Too good not to be there. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 6, 2018 Report Share Posted October 6, 2018 @Jaster: How much rain this you get? I am thinking you did well?! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 6, 2018 Report Share Posted October 6, 2018 NYC Skyline in 2030 . Man, I gotta go back there. Too good not to be there. WHAT ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT????? It'll all be underwater!! 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 6, 2018 Report Share Posted October 6, 2018 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 6, 2018 Report Share Posted October 6, 2018 WHAT ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT????? It'll all be underwater!! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 7, 2018 Report Share Posted October 7, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 7, 2018 Report Share Posted October 7, 2018 My high temps end of next week look to be quite chilly. As a matter a fact, they keep getting colder and colder. I.e., highs may struggle to reach 50F for high temps and lows falling into the 30s, easily. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 7, 2018 Report Share Posted October 7, 2018 @Jaster: How much rain this you get? I am thinking you did well?! By Marshall standards I've done great, lol. Tacked on a little bit this afternoon for 0.83" total for the event. I got all the rain here a year ago (flood) and in Feb (flood) and in May (flood). I don't want to be in a D0 pre-drought situation but I'm not really unhappy if I don't get the most rain here in mby. Now, when we're talkin' snow that's a whole other matter Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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