October 2018 Observations and Discussion

[CentralNebWeather]

Wowza!  It wasn't long ago you were dreaming of this type of weather in the heat and humidity, but boy, when it did flip it came in hard for your back yard.  Enjoy it my friend!

You are correct, what a change.  We have been stuck under clouds and off and on rain for several days.  Right now 40 degrees and rain with a north wind gusting to 20 MPH.  What an October so far.  I just feel very sorry for our farmers who watch the crops sit in the fields with standing water everywhere.  They really need a week of dry weather and they could get the crop harvested.  

[westMJim]

With an official high of 83° yesterday tied 1949 for the 2nd warmest high for the date. The record of 88° set in 2007 still stands. For today the record high is 84 set in 1939 with 82 in 2nd place set in 1905 and again in 2011. If it makes it into the 80’s today it will become only the 6th time it has reached the 80’s on this date. The last time was just last year. The low so far for today is 66° the current warmest minimum for this date is 65 set in 1949 so if it dont get below 66 before midnight we will set a new record warmest minimum for this date. The current reported official temperature at the airport is 71° with a DP of 66° here at my house I have a current temperature that is a little cooler than the AP at 67 with partly cloudy skies.

[jaster220]

You are correct, what a change.  We have been stuck under clouds and off and on rain for several days.  Right now 40 degrees and rain with a north wind gusting to 20 MPH.  What an October so far.  I just feel very sorry for our farmers who watch the crops sit in the fields with standing water everywhere.  They really need a week of dry weather and they could get the crop harvested.  

 

Yeah, always winners and losers. Unfortunately, the extreme wx we enthusiasts gravitate towards most likely causes other peeps inconveniences (or worse). 

[Tom]

posting this as our first wintery system of the new season east of the Rockies:

 

20181009 NWS map 1st wintery system.PNG

 

 

@ Tom

 

Crazy to read "could this be the first winter storm for our sub??" while my trees have barely started to turn and It's gonna feel like FL beach wx. Talk about wild

Yup, East Asian Rule did a fine job I'd say...

[Niko]

Is it July or October????? Currently at 71 tempwise and dew is at 70F.

[Niko]

Hurricane Micheal now a CAT2 and expected to gain strength. Possibly CAT3 b4 landfall.

[Niko]

Current statistics

 

Hurricane Michael

Last Updated: 10/9/2018, 8:00:00 AM (EDT)

• Location: 24.5 N 86.1 W
• Movement: NNW at 10 mph
• Wind: 100 mph
• Pressure: 968 mb

[gabel23]

This is one healthy looking cyclone! I can't believe how slow moving and organized this thing has been. Bring this baby on in the winter time and look out! 

 

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Looks like the low is starting to move northeast.  Rain is now moving to the northwest and my temp has dropped 2 degrees, now officially at 39 degrees.  This is a moderate rain and a lot more is moving up from Kansas. Probably going to be over 1 inch easily today with the radar trends.  North wind is making is resemble a winter day on the 9th of October.  

[CentralNebWeather]

This is one healthy looking cyclone! I can't believe how slow moving and organized this thing has been. Bring this baby on in the winter time and look out! 

Perfect Central Plains set up for our winter storms.

[gabel23]

Perfect Central Plains set up for our winter storms.

I coach in our last Junior High Football game today at 4:30. Should have the heaviest rains be in and around the area at that time. We have field turf so there is no reason to cancel the game! 

[Niko]

It has gained strength....now, 110mph:

 

Hurricane central

Reported Conditions

Tue Oct 9, 2018 10:00AM CDT

Michael Hurricane

Wind:

110 mph

Pressure:

965 mb

Movement:

N at 12 mph

 

[St Paul Storm]

It’s making a run at Cat 4 before landfall. That GOM bathwater is fuel for the fire.

[Niko]

It’s making a run at Cat 4 before landfall. That GOM bathwater is fuel for the fire.

Yup...upper 80s current water temp in the GOM. CAT3 is a good bet. CAT4 is possible, but I think it will run outta time. It will hit land soon. That might leave it at 3, otherwise, this thing had a chance of being a 5, had it been over water much longer!

[St Paul Storm]

Latest few runs of the NAM keep the precip holding on a bit longer, thus changing over to light snow for a few hours Thurs morning. Wouldn’t stick much with temps in the lower 30s, but chances of seeing some flakes are looking a bit better at the moment

[CentralNebWeather]

I coach in our last Junior High Football game today at 4:30. Should have the heaviest rains be in and around the area at that time. We have field turf so there is no reason to cancel the game! 

We have already moved our football practice indoors today to our elementary school.  There is standing water on our practice field and the rain continues.  We will get more done inside than sliding around outside.  Hoping tomorrow and Thursday we will get outside to get some work done.  Hard to believe that regular season of high school football here in Nebraska ends next Friday the 19th.  Where has the fall gone?

[james1976]

The GFS is missing the interaction with Sergio and the other piece of energy comin down. Could be an interesting setup if they did. Wondering how the Euro will handle it.

[james1976]

We have already moved our football practice indoors today to our elementary school. There is standing water on our practice field and the rain continues. We will get more done inside than sliding around outside. Hoping tomorrow and Thursday we will get outside to get some work done. Hard to believe that regular season of high school football here in Nebraska ends next Friday the 19th. Where has the fall gone?

Right to winter! Winter Storm Warning just hoisted for northcentral NE!

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=lbf&wwa=winter%20storm%20warning

[gabel23]

Right to winter! Winter Storm Warning just hoisted for northcentral NE!

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=lbf&wwa=winter%20storm%20warning

They also extended the WWA; now includes North Platte Nebraska. We have a girl from our school playing in state golf today, what a miserable day for that! 

[snowstorm83]

Right to winter! Winter Storm Warning just hoisted for northcentral NE!

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=lbf&wwa=winter%20storm%20warning

 

Valentine always seems to a magnet for snow. This is one of those times where I wish Omaha/Lincoln were in the middle of the Sand Hills instead of the southeast haha. The Sand Hills are probably one of the most sparsely populated areas in the lower 48...unique area that I'd love to visit one day. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Right to winter! Winter Storm Warning just hoisted for northcentral NE!

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=lbf&wwa=winter%20storm%20warning

North Central Nebraska to Northeast Nebraska usually the snow winners it seems.

[Minny_Weather]

Valentine always seems to a magnet for snow. This is one of those times where I wish Omaha/Lincoln were in the middle of the Sand Hills instead of the southeast haha. The Sand Hills are probably one of the most sparsely populated areas in the lower 48...unique area that I'd love to visit one day. 

I love the Black Hills-esque scenery around Chadron as well.

[Minny_Weather]

Jesus ******* Christ Euro is bringing 2.5" of wet snow here Friday.

[Jaycee]

[Minny_Weather]

This is a spot on 09’-10’ repeat. Mark my words. Omaha got 6” of snow on the 10th of October in 2009, it was insane. I’ve said it all along, this is Nebraska’s year! Now that I’m not there lol

Not getting my hopes up on this one. This is the first time either of the models has even sniffed at measurable snow for here. If we even do see flakes, it'll probably be in the form of a rain/snow mix and will not be able to accumulate because temperatures will be 3 or 4 degrees above freezing, along with the rain.

[james1976]

My county and to the south is in a Tornado Watch til 9pm. This system looks impressive on radar.

[St Paul Storm]

Tornado warning just west of Dubuque.

 

Meanwhile steady rain with a wind chill of 45 here. Nasty.

[Tom]

My county and to the south is in a Tornado Watch til 9pm. This system looks impressive on radar.

Not only that, but the upper levels are just as impressive as this beast goes neg tilt through tomorrow. Storm #1 in the new LRC is quite the system and a fantastic way to start a new pattern.

[gabel23]

[Hawkeye]

I picked up about a quarter inch of rain overnight.  In the last hour, I picked up another quarter inch in only five minutes from a tiny, but potent cell.

[Jaycee]

It's very similar for sure, areas in Western Nebraska received 25-30" of snow in October! Here is North Platte's updated snow forecast for today.....looks great!

 

That’s what I’m saying bruv! I’m calling it right now, all of Nebraska ends up above average this winter. If you get some snow soon I’m gunna geek, it’s been forever since we saw that out there!

[Minny_Weather]

On and off light rain now. I think the heaviest is gone for a while. 51.3*F.

[CentralNebWeather]

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Hastings NE
221 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018

...First Freeze Expected for Most of the Area Wednesday Night...

Phillips-Smith-Rooks-Valley-Greeley-Nance-Sherman-Howard-Merrick-
Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-
Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-Webster-
Including the cities of Phillipsburg, Bellaire, Smith Center,
Kensington, Codell, Plainville, Stockton, Ord, Greeley, Spalding,
Scotia, Wolbach, Fullerton, Genoa, Loup City, Sherman Reservoir,
Litchfield, St. Libory, Central City, Lexington, Cozad,
Willow Island, Gothenburg, Kearney, Grand Island, Aurora, Elwood,
Johnson Lake, Holdrege, Minden, Hastings, Sutton, Harvard,
Clay Center, Edgar, Fairfield, Cambridge, Arapahoe, Oxford,
Beaver City, Hollinger, Alma, Orleans, Franklin, Campbell,
Hildreth, Inavale, Red Cloud, Blue Hill, Rosemont, and Bladen
221 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

The National Weather Service in Hastings has issued a Freeze
Watch, which is in effect from late Wednesday night through
Thursday morning.

* TEMPERATURE...27 to 32 degrees

* IMPACTS...Outdoor plants may be damaged.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Freeze Watch means sub-freezing temperatures are possible.
These conditions could kill crops and other sensitive vegetation.

[james1976]

Something is bound to happen.

[Iowawx]

I picked up about a quarter inch of rain overnight.  In the last hour, I picked up another quarter inch in only five minutes from a tiny, but potent cell.

Aren't you annoyed that everything keeps missing CR to the west? I would love to see some of those storms. 

[Stormgeek]

Well the rain shield has finally arrived here! As SPS said it is 45 and raining here. Brrrrr... Watching radar of this system in the heart of the country is absolute eye candy. Hope it revisits this winter!

[bud2380]

This is a spot on 09’-10’ repeat. Mark my words. Omaha got 6” of snow on the 10th of October in 2009, it was insane. I’ve said it all along, this is Nebraska’s year! Now that I’m not there lol

 

I remember that storm well.  I believe North Platte and areas around there got over a foot that day.  The snow even made it's way all the way to Iowa City.  We were setting up for our tailgate and around 10am or so it started snowing.  Some good sized flakes too, but it didn't stick.  

[jaster220]

Michael's a MAJOR and that's quite the pressure drop since yesterday:

 

[jaster220]

It's not a massive wide zone of hurricane winds. Kinda compact like Charlie in '04. But, per NOAA's guidance, Panama City's in the cross-hairs for the worst winds. Fortunately, they're some what inland on that bay vs being right on the beach like say Miami. Although with Charlie, he turned into the bay and peeps were caught off guard by the last minute landfall shift. He also maintained intensity a bit longer going into the bay. If Michael threads the needle of the bay inlet, could be a similar scenario. A lot of folks were killed in mobile homes during Charlie. He remained a CAT4 at landfall with near CAT5 gusts in a narrow band. (see the gas station vid)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[CentralNebWeather]

511 Nebraska shows snow accumulating in western Nebraska at Ogallala. What a great sight to see on October 9th.