October 2018 Observations and Discussion

[jaster220]

Everyone who's getting excited about the cold pushing well SE from where it's been needs to remember that it's due to the MJO shifting from Phase 1 into Phase 2. In winter that would mean we all get cold, but it's October and instead the BN regime up in Canada (source region) rebounds AN. So, we're not really sinking deeper into "winter time" but instead cycling through and we'll have to start all over again building the cold north of the border. I don't fault anybody if they're a bit eager to ditch the ridges and heatwaves, but moving into serious winter too early usually screws things up over all. You either end up with a lame-azz 2nd half (see 00-01) or a big dead spot in the middle (see 06-07 or 14-15). I'd personally rather we step down a bit ahead of schedule vs plunging off a cliff prematurely.

[Minny_Weather]

Eventual hurricane Michael looks to make landfall somewhere on the gulf coast sometime mid-late next week. Any chance that breaks up this nice weather pattern?

[OKwx2k4]

Everyone who's getting excited about the cold pushing well SE from where it's been needs to remember that it's due to the MJO shifting from Phase 1 into Phase 2. In winter that would mean we all get cold, but it's October and instead the BN regime up in Canada (source region) rebounds AN. So, we're not really sinking deeper into "winter time" but instead cycling through and we'll have to start all over again building the cold north of the border. I don't fault anybody if they're a bit eager to ditch the ridges and heatwaves, but moving into serious winter too early usually screws things up over all. You either end up with a lame-azz 2nd half (see 00-01) or a big dead spot in the middle (see 06-07 or 14-15). I'd personally rather we step down a bit ahead of schedule vs plunging off a cliff prematurely.

'00 was a December to remember here but you're right. Winter that year was October-December here. It ended mid-January 2001.

 

What I'm more looking at right now is the progression forward in the pattern. This is usually the part where I blow it.

[OKwx2k4]

Eventual hurricane Michael looks to make landfall somewhere on the gulf coast sometime mid-late next week. Any chance that breaks up this nice weather pattern?

Similar weather pattern as around the time of TS Gordon. Should be a similar result just a different location.

[Minny_Weather]

Euro gets rid of any sort of storm system here next weekend. GFS still keeps it. Guess it's time to get a first look into which model will forecast these better this year.

[Niko]

By Marshall standards I've done great, lol. Tacked on a little bit this afternoon for 0.83" total for the event. I got all the rain here a year ago (flood) and in Feb (flood) and in May (flood). I don't want to be in a D0 pre-drought situation but I'm not really unhappy if I don't get the most rain here in mby. Now, when we're talkin' snow that's a whole other matter

So did I, no complaints.    Plentiful rainfall.

 

Snowfallwise, you'd be buried in feet of snow ma man.

[Niko]

Currently @ 55F w cloudy skies. Anotha WF coming up its way will boost temps up into the 80s once again b4 a strong CF pushes on through by midweek or later and realllllyyyyyy cool off my temps. I stand a shot at staying in the 40s for highs.

[Niko]

TS Micheal should not gain strength and remain in the weak status in the GOM. Ton of moisture will affect the southern states and the EC for now as it stands. My area looks like it will get bypass.

[jaster220]

Looking at the last frame of the GFS out on the 23rd, that looks like the real-deal artic front. If I don't have a freeze b4 then, that should do it.

[Niko]

Looking at the last frame of the GFS out on the 23rd, that looks like the real-deal artic front. If I don't have a freeze b4 then, that should do it.

Its been a long time since I read the word "Arctic Front" or even heard it for that matter.

[Tom]

If there is any window where the NAO could turn negative, I think it would be during the last 10 days of the month.  Seeing what is happening at both 10mb/30mb across N Canada/Greenland the last few days of Sept into Oct, I would imagine some ridging would develop in NE Canada/Greenland late month.

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp10anim.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.gif

[Niko]

Currently 55F and cloudy. No rainfall to report of. Big brief, warm-up coming w temps approaching 85-90. Records are likely to be broken.

[OKwx2k4]

T-3 days or so til this ridge gets beaten down. Cannot wait.

[Tom]

T-3 days or so til this ridge gets beaten down. Cannot wait.

#Sergio's remnants might be heading your way by next weekend...great pattern setting up for you later this week.

[OKwx2k4]

If there is any window where the NAO could turn negative, I think it would be during the last 10 days of the month. Seeing what is happening at both 10mb/30mb across N Canada/Greenland the last few days of Sept into Oct, I would imagine some ridging would develop in NE Canada/Greenland late month.

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp10anim.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.gif

I'd say that's a good call. Will be interesting to see the effects of the pattern change in about 3 weeks.

[OKwx2k4]

#Sergio's remnants might be heading your way by next weekend...great pattern setting up for you later this week.

Becomes an Arklatex style low, if I'm not mistaken.

[OKwx2k4]

Happy Birthday to me....

[Minny_Weather]

Euro brings a rain/snow mix into my county next Friday. GFS is in the 40s though and brings just rain throughout the state.

[james1976]

Euro brings a rain/snow mix into my county next Friday. GFS is in the 40s though and brings just rain throughout the state.

Is Euro back with the system? It had lost it yesterday.

[Minny_Weather]

Is Euro back with the system? It had lost it yesterday.

Yeah but it's fairly small. Good to see Euro picking it back up though.

[jaster220]

If there is any window where the NAO could turn negative, I think it would be during the last 10 days of the month.  Seeing what is happening at both 10mb/30mb across N Canada/Greenland the last few days of Sept into Oct, I would imagine some ridging would develop in NE Canada/Greenland late month.

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp10anim.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.gif

 

That'd actually be perfect timing for the phase1-2 transition when the BN blob-o-blue shifts SE across Dixie. Question then becomes Is this also a cyclical pattern of the new LRC? Wherein the region between the Rockies and the Appalachians has a several week active period, followed by a similar shifting of the battle zone east of the App's?

[james1976]

Rain shield is knocking on my door. Moving in slowly from the south.

[westMJim]

Been getting light mist here with a cool temperature of 54° There looks to be a big warm up for Monday, Tuesday and less so for Wednesday. The high in the forecast for Monday is 80 the record at Grand Rapids is 88 that record looks to be safe. As for Tuesday the high in the forecast is lower 80’s the record is 84 in 1939 that record should be safe and Wed record of 85 will be safe. Of bigger importance is that there have only been 8 times it has gotten 80 or better on October 8 in GR history and for Tuesday the number is only 5 times. If it indeed reaches the low 80’s on Tuesday it will be one of the warmest for that day.

[Thunder98]

Wisconsin should be renamed "Wetconsin" and the Great Plains should now be called the "Great Flood Plains"

 

[Tom]

That'd actually be perfect timing for the phase1-2 transition when the BN blob-o-blue shifts SE across Dixie. Question then becomes Is this also a cyclical pattern of the new LRC? Wherein the region between the Rockies and the Appalachians has a several week active period, followed by a similar shifting of the battle zone east of the App's?

I heard that the MJO only influences the LRC, but there is evidence it has a 30-60 day cycle as well.

[Bryan1117]

Wisconsin should be renamed "Wetconsin" and the Great Plains should now be called the "Great Flood Plains"

 

Wow, that’s a lot of rain in the cards around here and other parts of the Midwest. Flood watches in effect through Tuesday in Eastern Nebraska, I might need a bigger boat.

[OKwx2k4]

Wow, that’s a lot of rain in the cards around here and other parts of the Midwest. Flood watches in effect through Tuesday in Eastern Nebraska, I might need a bigger boat.

Anyone asking for a drought buster. You win.

[St Paul Storm]

Winter lawn fertilizer put down this morning. Time for a soaker and let’s get the cold in here. Winter prep in full force.

[jaster220]

Wisconsin should be renamed "Wetconsin" and the Great Plains should now be called the "Great Flood Plains"

 

 

Anyone asking for a drought buster. You win.

 

two too funny posts - ea gets a :lol:

[jaster220]

  just looking at the CONUS radar and wowza this would be a massive wintery system if it were mid-winter. That swipe of qpf brings back memories of GHD-1 ('cept them was snow amts ofc). IF this is anything like we see in December look out somebody's getting buried!

[Niko]

Just saw my forecast and it looks like a very warm Mon and especially Tues w the possibility of a couple of broken records or records being tied. Anywhere from 80-90F is a real bet.

[Madtown]

What's 3in....Dont get excited unless we crack 5in per event...lol...wish I was swimming in a fresh 30in of snow every week come dec and jan.

[hlcater]

Seeing chances for our first flakes Friday Morning. I'll take it. 

[OKwx2k4]

I hope most are excited to get this autumn cool rolling along soon. I feel like I've been waiting forever but I've had a bit of everything since last spring. I'm excited for some sharply cold air to return.

[OKwx2k4]

Warning blast, then snap to mid-fall for all is what the GFS keeps alluding to.

Heck yes!! Love that west coast warmth trending too!

 

Great October pattern being pieced together.

[Tom]

I hope most are excited to get this autumn cool rolling along soon. I feel like I've been waiting forever but I've had a bit of everything since last spring. I'm excited for some sharply cold air to return.

If there is anyone on here that should be ecstatic, it would be you my friend.  I'm glad to see your enthusiasm this season and hopeful you will score bigly this cold season.  Enjoy the cool down coming later this week that looks to stick around for a while.  No pesky ridges down south that I see for the foreseeable future. 

[Tom]

Happy Monday!  It's quite a foggy morning here today on this Columbus Day in Chicago.  How does that folklore work again??  Anyhow, this week will feature one of the more busy weeks of weather this Autumn season for the majority of the central CONUS.  It's nice to talk about some late season warmth around here to kick off the work week.  I don't mind it all actually, on the flip side, I'm also anxious to see my first flakes and my first Freeze of the season.

 

[Iowawx]

Very heavy rain has moved through here in the past few hours. Rainfall total in the past 24 hours is 1.93" 

[Hawkeye]

Yes, there was a line of storms that briefly dumped very heavy rain here this morning.  Large drops really pounded the roof.  Yesterday through this morning I've received 1.57", with most of that falling early this morning.  I was worried this entire wet period would bust, but this rain more than doubled my 8-day total.  The WPC has another couple inches falling.

[Hawkeye]

A couple freezes are popping up in our late week to weekend forecast.  I understand a lot of us are looking forward to this, but I still have seven hummingbirds and a yard full of tender plants.  I'm going to have to cover plants, which is always a pain.