October 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

So it looks like the jet extension will reach the west coast after all. Impressive +EAMT event for this early.

 

But with a -EAMT exchange developing as we speak, it will retract abruptly and terminate the stormy pattern in fairly short order..I’m pretty bearish its duration. Might not even last a week.

 

It looks more like a closed Plains trough and slow discontinuous retrogression thereafter, thru the month of November, IMO.

[MossMan]

I’m still hoping for a 06/07 redux! Such greatness!

[TT-SEA]

So it looks like the jet extension will reach the west coast after all. Impressive +EAMT event for this early.

 

But with a -EAMT exchange developing as we speak, it will retract abruptly and terminate the stormy pattern in fairly short order..I’m pretty bearish its duration. Might not even last a week.

 

It looks more like a closed Plains trough and slow discontinuous retrogression thereafter, thru the month of November, IMO.

 

I am sensing that as well.  

[Deweydog]

When Phil and Tim agree....

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Oh 2002-03...the winter where thicknesses never dropped below 534 here.

 

That winter was a once a decade type of turd sandwich. Along the lines of 1991-92 or 2014-15.

 

The cold snap at the end of October was nice though. Oregon's all-time October low was set in 2002.

[GHweatherChris]

So, let me get this straight.... if a record is broken, then the previous record year is now an analog, WTF!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I am sensing that as well.  

 

It is what the models are showing right now. Right now I think the first half of November is around average to a bit below with precip. Probably a wet latter half of the month.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

So, let me get this straight.... if a record is broken, then the previous record year is now an analog, WTF!!

 

Hopefully we break the record tomorrow and add 1936-37 as an analog. lol

[GHweatherChris]

Hopefully we break the record tomorrow and add 1936-37 as an analog. lol

Hope so lol

[Tyler Mode]

81 today after a low of 36.  Feels like the desert.  Nice east wind picked up this afternoon and drove humidity down to the teens.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like a hurricane off the coast of BC next Thursday morning...

 

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS shows just a couple days with rain next week and then its back to ridging. 

 

Phil might be right.  

[Phil]

00Z GFS shows just a couple days with rain next week and then its back to ridging.

 

Phil might be right.

Regardless of what happens in regards to that, the jet stream is gonna buckle like mad as we approach Halloween. I still think there will be a monster cyclone in the central or eastern part of the country around that time. The cycle in the upstream AAM source is just so perfectly classic.

[TT-SEA]

Regardless of what happens in regards to that, the jet stream is gonna buckle like mad as we approach Halloween. I still think there will be a monster cyclone in the central or eastern part of the country around that time. The cycle in the upstream AAM source is just so perfectly classic.

 

 

Good info... I like a mad buckling jet stream.   

[Guest daniel1]

Regardless of what happens in regards to that, the jet stream is gonna buckle like mad as we approach Halloween. I still think there will be a monster cyclone in the central or eastern part of the country around that time. The cycle in the upstream AAM source is just so perfectly classic.

Apologies if it’s already been said but where do you see the pattern going after this? What would a -EAMT favour?

[Phil]

Apologies if it’s already been said but where do you see the pattern going after this? What would a -EAMT favour?

Depends when “this” refers to? I see a retrograding wavetrain from October 29th to ~ November 15th.

 

The big cyclone in the east is a result of AAM removal upstream which will amplify the wavetrain and produce the first legit wavebreaking event of the cold season around Halloween.

[Dave]

78 beautiful degrees here. As a fair weather bicyclist, I took a long ride today. So rare to see the beautiful fall colors while warm and sunny. 

[Jesse]

78 beautiful degrees here. As a fair weather bicyclist, I took a long ride today. So rare to see the beautiful fall colors while warm and sunny.

Just like it’s such a rare treat to see spring flowers when it’s freezing cold and snowing.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2002 winter sucked. About as lovely as a pig a**.

[seattleweatherguy]

The ecwf still showing that 949mb that the nws said in afd

[TT-SEA]

2002 winter sucked. About as lovely as a pig a**.

 

 

I guess if lowland snow and cold is that important.   Its not that important to me.    It sure looks like an enjoyable winter overall... March and April were pretty nasty though.   

 

And the mountains were not doing well through January but then had a banner Feb-May period that left snow pack healthy going into the warm season.  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

The ecwf still showing that 949mb that the nws said in afd

 

Further north from what I can tell.

[TT-SEA]

The ecwf still showing that 949mb that the nws said in afd

 

When is the ECMWF showing that?

[TT-SEA]

Ahhhh... day 9.

 

He must have an advance copy of the ECMWF.   Tropical and WB just got to day 9 right now.  

[TT-SEA]

Here is that storm on the 00Z ECMWF... moving north.

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Really want that to trend south.

[Deweydog]

Really want that to trend south.

Lots of BSF if that happens. As it stands there will be a moderate amount of BSEF.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Hope Rob shows up soon.  Gotta get the night shift going this Nov.

[TT-SEA]

Warm morning... 55 here.    Sounds like the east wind is blowing a little stronger out there.

[Geos]

Wednesday night/Thursday storm still there. It's a big'n

 

[Geos]

Temp still falling here. 43 currently with clear skies. Feels like a very light northerly breeze here.

[TT-SEA]

Temp still falling here. 43 currently with clear skies. Feels like a very light northerly breeze here.

 

Looks like its in the mid to upper 50s out here in the valley as well so the downsloping is more widespread.

 

I also see Lakemont in Bellevue is at 60.     SEA is 48 and flirting with fog so the northerly component to the wind is fading and the east wind is not strong enough to reach there.    

 

ECMWF surface map shows this becoming more pronounced later this week... with clouds and fog in the Seattle area through at least noon on Friday and Saturday while sunny and warm east of Issaquah all day.  

[Omegaraptor]

54 and clear in Portland.

[Jesse]

42 and clear here. PDX is 44.

[Omegaraptor]

Odd. My station is overreporting.

[TT-SEA]

Straight up 60 degrees in North Bend right now before the sun has even cleared Mt. Si

 

[Jesse]

Did I just unwittingly enter some sort of temperature war?

[TT-SEA]

Did I just unwittingly enter some sort of temperature war?

No... you are just reporting your conditions.

[Tyler Mode]

36 in Battle Ground.

[seattleweatherguy]

Ahhhh... day 9.

 

He must have an advance copy of the ECMWF. Tropical and WB just got to day 9 right now.

Actually got that from the nws afd. Do not have advanced copies of any maps.